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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
32 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Glosea predicting a really strong SSW early Jan

DBA09CB6-44F2-4583-B8BA-2EEA8E40B50F.png

That was the 3rd dec. seen it a few times on Twitter this week. Any updates on more recent runs?

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That was the 3rd dec. seen it a few times on Twitter this week. Any updates on more recent runs?

Haven’t seen any but it must still be showing , going by the meto 16-30 Dayer . It’s very bullish on it turning cold . Think it’s just the timing of when it lands .

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted

FV3 strat chart at T360:

image.thumb.jpg.943766843368f84b720d88d3db8e9b42.jpg

Total consistency with the 6z and 0z for the split vortex, positioning and all sorts.

Yes it was one GEFS member 30 hrs ago that started this, but this was always going to be the model to show a consistent signal, with ~13km resolution out to day 16.

Well for us that is, seems GloSea5 had the evolution nailed by 3rd Dec!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
30 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That was the 3rd dec. seen it a few times on Twitter this week. Any updates on more recent runs?

Nope unfortunately, but the fact the METO have jumped on the cold bandwagon after this makes me think it wasn’t a one off run, or is maybe even stronger.

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
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Posted
20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 strat chart at T360:

image.thumb.jpg.943766843368f84b720d88d3db8e9b42.jpg

Total consistency with the 6z and 0z for the split vortex, positioning and all sorts.

Yes it was one GEFS member 30 hrs ago that started this, but this was always going to be the model to show a consistent signal, with ~13km resolution out to day 16.

Well for us that is, seems GloSea5 had the evolution nailed by 3rd Dec!

Yep, GFS(P) consistently obliterates the strat vortex. 

NippyRemoteIberiannase-size_restricted.thumb.gif.0bcab3f8fdf14b3ad699fc9016bb860f.gif

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Yep, GFS(P) consistently obliterates the strat vortex. 

NippyRemoteIberiannase-size_restricted.thumb.gif.0bcab3f8fdf14b3ad699fc9016bb860f.gif

It doesn't do it with a wavelength like that though, that's too sharper ridge plus its only 552 heights (because its green), it would have to be much higher heights than that to cause that much havoc

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted
28 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 strat chart at T360:

image.thumb.jpg.943766843368f84b720d88d3db8e9b42.jpg

Total consistency with the 6z and 0z for the split vortex, positioning and all sorts.

Yes it was one GEFS member 30 hrs ago that started this, but this was always going to be the model to show a consistent signal, with ~13km resolution out to day 16.

Well for us that is, seems GloSea5 had the evolution nailed by 3rd Dec!

Vortex is toast on that chart- and best thing is we keep the bigger piece over the Canadian side, which would preclude a West based - NAO

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC now into range of Christmas.. can it provide some cheer?

If it doesnt im hoping to see signs of the jet digging south late on..

definitely much better than last few EC runs, 

ECM1-216.GIF?15-0

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Interitus Accomplished

Interitus

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Singularity said:

(as events within the stratosphere coincide with the big punch from below to produce a wave-2 assault that splits the vortex)

Interestingly, the split vortex at the end of the GFS 12z is not from strong wave 2 -

218032819_wave_serie1018121512.thumb.png.9ce0338561d6163ac43292cffbfcc120.png

105431319_360w218121512.thumb.png.c8830415800ceb50de05e97ce0d11db6.png

(charts weatheriscool.com)

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Vortex is toast on that chart- and best thing is we keep the bigger piece over the Canadian side, which would preclude a West based - NAO

I wouldn't mind a bit of toasted vortex myself, Crewe. Bring it on!

Edited by Ed Stone
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

ECM seems to be creeping back towards a more amplified solution. This sort of thing piques my interest more than a sudden swing. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Interestingly, the split vortex at the end of the GFS 12z is not from strong wave 2 -

 

 

(charts weatheriscool.com)

 

The 6z looked very interesting to me, it looked like the split was from the top, i would like to see some additional data on that, looks like they only have that data on the 12z.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Happy with EC day 10-

ECE1-240.GIF?15-0

Positve signs appear imho-

Well it sits with the op cluster from th 00z suite and that went on to produce a mid lat high across us but a growing mid Atlantic upper ridge b6 day 15 .........

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted
38 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Interestingly, the split vortex at the end of the GFS 12z is not from strong wave 2 -

218032819_wave_serie1018121512.thumb.png.9ce0338561d6163ac43292cffbfcc120.png

105431319_360w218121512.thumb.png.c8830415800ceb50de05e97ce0d11db6.png

(charts weatheriscool.com)

 

I think those charts are only covering planetary wave forcing... it puzzled me earlier and led me to seek explanation of a split being shown after these charts depict only wave-1, and was informed in response that it’s not just the upcoming planetary wave forcing at work.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it sits with the op cluster from th 00z suite and that went on to produce a mid lat high across us but a growing mid Atlantic upper ridge b6 day 15 .........

Cheers Blue,

I'malways interested to hear or rather read your musings- would it be reasonable to suggest prior to a SSW, the reduction in zonal winds- (assuming EC is along the lines of the GEFS Mike Poole posted earlier) would help in reducing the strength of the jetstream?

 ie slow it down ?

What i am trying to say is would NWP products(GFS/EC etc) factor in the reduction of zonal winds ?

Edited by northwestsnow
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

For those looking out for Christmas weather, ECM  ensemble mean 12z certainly doesn't rule out something from a northerly direction, will take a few days before the uncertainty is resolved, ECM mean T240:

image.thumb.jpg.a58cc0beaf3b700e1300014a65d8e23b.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM mean and Op on the 850s are ok until around the 20th afterwards is when the disagreement kicks in

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.89c391be6252d74483e01e580341ce31.png

No such uncertainty in the de Bilt ensemble, do probably it's the exact setup of a trough/ridge with the boundery either just west or east of London 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cheers Blue,

I'malways interested to hear or rather read your musings- would it be reasonable to suggest prior to a SSW, the reduction in zonal winds- (assuming EC is along the lines of the GEFS Mike Poole posted earlier) would help in reducing the strength of the jetstream?

 ie slow it down ?

What i am trying to say is would NWP products(GFS/EC etc) factor in the reduction of zonal winds ?

I’m noticing some changes to the strat height forecasts today .... I wouldn’t be counting any chickens at the moment re size of displacement or any split to follow  .... also the eps much more mean upper ridge in our vicinity in the extended ........ a watching brief for a few runs methinks ...... 

Edited by bluearmy
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