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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
16 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

When is the second warming scheduled....which hopefully leads to a split?

Pretty much at the end of the run for the GFS and FV3. Here FV3 6z at T384:

image.thumb.jpg.ef3e63f6c8fcec22e67206310beb889a.jpg

  Not sure it's a second warming, more an evolution of the first, I used that wording in the previous post as I was responding to Steve's comment.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 hours ago, snowray said:

Well I'm expecting a super dooper 12z, upgrades and more of a block to our north or in the Atlantic by the end of the month.

Something like this.:cold:

gens-19-0-276.png

gens-19-1-276.png

Close to my prediction, nothing like the 06z and with some potential there.

gfs-0-210.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Some wild differences between GFS runs and this is the problem with what happens post the SSW.

So for the timebeing Christmas Week is still very much up in the air.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Top marks to the GEM, this is what we need early doors for our white Crimbo treat!:santa-emoji:

gem-0-144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Top marks to the GEM, this is what we need early doors for our white Crimbo treat!:santa-emoji:

gem-0-144.png

Yes my first thought on seeing that one too.  Then I looked at the uppers, you'll need an ice cream van if you want anything cold off of that 

image.thumb.jpg.17d8d431e565becb21eec8f2554d28b6.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes my first thought on seeing that one too.  Then I looked at the uppers, you'll need an ice cream van if you want anything cold off of that 

image.thumb.jpg.17d8d431e565becb21eec8f2554d28b6.jpg

GEM does normally have uppers way too high though.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

March 2018 and 2013 left snowdrifts that I’ve never seen before in any other month, not even january 2010 or Feb 2009, which were amazing months for snow by U.K. standards. 

Got to agree with that for here as well. In fact when it comes down to it March is the only month in the last 25 years to have produced snowdrifts here and that's only been twice, with both occasions occurring in the last 5 years. Before 2013 I would guess you'd have to go all the way back to possibly Feb 91 for the time before that actual snowdrifts formed around here, despite a fair few snow events between those years.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes my first thought on seeing that one too.  Then I looked at the uppers, you'll need an ice cream van if you want anything cold off of that 

image.thumb.jpg.17d8d431e565becb21eec8f2554d28b6.jpg

GEM often underplays uppers though, but yes it's not a very cold chart but it could turn into something decent. It's just that with the SSW starting to verify, and wether we get a split or just a displacement at the end of the month, or January, there is likely to be a lot of chopping and changing going on. 26th of December sticks in my mind, GP said thats a date to keep an eye on a while back.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

STrat not as good on this run.

Nooooooooooooo!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
4 hours ago, carinthian said:

Super day on the slopes. Lots of day trippers to enjoy almost perfect conditions. Yes, GFS flips big style today with Spanish Heights coming in to fore but UKMO may be best placed to blast this away at 168t with deepening wave to push the flow SE. Expect another flip on the 12z run ( from our experts ) Anyway 5 more days to enjoy the winter wonderland conditions before heading to Vancouver for a month via East Sussex ( family visits )

C

48371912_10156372621646107_6486788990908235776_n.jpg

Crazy swings from GFS in the past 48 hours for the run up to Christmas. Our team think the low still to sink over England this time next week after a spell of windy or even stormy weather over Southern Britain towards the end of next week. Less certain will the positioning of the high to follow. The problem is the forecast variability of the 300mb polar jet positioning   and likely to be the cause of main models erratic swings at the moment. Lets see what ECM comes up with this time.

C

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, snowray said:

Nooooooooooooo!

Its not tragic though, it just isn't as good as the 6z, and certainly not as good as the 6z parallel which was stunning, its still showing sings of splitting as its stretched, the 6z was practically a split.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its not tragic though, it just isn't as good as the 6z, and certainly not as good as the 6z parallel which was stunning, its still showing sings of splitting as its stretched, the 6z was practically a split.

Expect changes from run to run all looking good  from where I’m sitting.

Edited by abbie123
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its not tragic though, it just isn't as good as the 6z, and certainly not as good as the 6z parallel which was stunning, its still showing sings of splitting as its stretched, the 6z was practically a split.

Yes the elastic band looks ready for going ping from where im sat

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Given how mid-Jan 2013 panned out, I can see reason to anticipate 'wedges' of higher heights disrupting the Atlantic troughs late this month (as events within the stratosphere coincide with the big punch from below to produce a wave-2 assault that splits the vortex) while the polar jet is corrected south, and the models struggling to resolve their development until as little as a few day's range.

Not only that, but this time around, the expectation is for support from the tropics that will help those wedges to be stronger in the Iceland-Greenland vicinity than was the case in Jan 2013, and as far as I can see the models are struggling to capture this crucial aspect as well. Especially ECM but GFS isn't faring much better to be fair.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

Just a nosing of the spread toward phase 6 as the month draws to a close. Needs more amplitude and just a little bit more pace on it I reckon.

Edited by Singularity
Timing
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Glosea predicting a really strong SSW early Jan

DBA09CB6-44F2-4583-B8BA-2EEA8E40B50F.png

Is that the average of the 5 members or some sort of control run? looks like a split would be happening with that.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

FV3 looking promising at day 9 - at least it will be relatively seasonal!

GFSPARAEU12_216_1.png

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is that the average of the 5 members or some sort of control run? looks like a split would be happening with that.

There was a tweet the other day feb can’t find it but there were other graphs all from glosea . 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

There was a tweet the other day feb can’t find it but there were other graphs all from glosea . 

https://twitter.com/Met_Set_UK/status/1073227943365742598

 

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