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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ECM mean on the 850s peaks at a low of around -7 in northern Scotland on Monday

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.f52a1f4acf3754b8126d5feaf36c4b13.png

Further south the peak low on the mean is around -3 for London

673741635_graphe_ens3(1).thumb.png.2cf5c463540bf585f9392586690d29a1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
40 minutes ago, Purga said:

Mild sector alert!

image.thumb.png.736300cb5497c1bb1680394bff73e98d.png

Good trends this morning though and still pretty much on a knifes edge.

And I didn't,t even need to look to know that it would be covering Dorset lol

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
49 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Blizzards for SE England on the ECM..

A526A74A-35A9-470C-BA7C-145E349D5CB6.thumb.png.1135e815f46dcd0b4188b505d2231e55.png

What an upgrade! Please, just a few more so we can see full undercutting.. 

This could become a T0 forecasting situation 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
48 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is it my imagination, or has the 'centre of gravity' of the GEFS ensemble slipped ever so slightly towards a colder set of solutions? Anyway, Suffolk's 850s ought to be the best place to look, if an easterly draw has any traction...?

GEFS Ensembles Chart

Nope unfortunately it's back to southwesterlies from Friday on

 

gens_pluim_dd_06240.png

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Arpege is seeing that low to our west/south west (circled) to be a much shallower feature than the main models. 

I believe that feature still hasn’t even developed yet. Not sure myself, but if this did occur, would this help the pattern initially with less energy against the block or not much effect?

F41501C7-6078-44A8-B1DA-9C64B602B069.jpeg

F667C50E-EB4A-4656-9BC3-C2083226CF69.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I forecast it will take the GFS till 12z tomorrow** to catch uop even though increments of further amplifcation on the 06z what it struggles with the most is moving that energy away SE from the main low...

Any improvements on the 06z buddy

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Yes that low is well over done, will be shallower, usual GFS.

gfs-0-108.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

GFS has the LP backed up more north west on this run.

 

gfs-0-114.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Edit: Wrong date.

 

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

That high is so much stronger this run..

gfs-0-120.png

gfs-0-126.png

The high seems to be getting stronger with each run!!its a massive difference comparing yesterdays 06z to today for the same time!!more of a southeast wind ahead of that low and undercutting

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

That high is so much stronger this run..

gfs-0-120.png

gfs-0-126.png

Yes, just need them lows in the Atlantic to calm down a bit now and behave.☺️

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Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

So the EC thinks the below will be snow on Weds? Find that a little bizarre.

 

gfs-2-90.png

That EC chart is for Friday the 14th I think. It's got American dates

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Just now, snowblind said:

That EC chart is for Friday the 14th I think. It's got American dates

Correct, I edited my post.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

So the GFS just deflects the LP`s away (or delaying),  interesting.

 

gfs-0-156.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Can't post charts as I'm on my phone, but the differences at 144 between the 6z vs 0z are significant. The block is increasingly being modelled stronger and stronger. Could be some drama over the next couple of days on here!

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Its about another 100 miles west and puts our south of the M4 gang back in the game. The block gets stronger and now is starting to resemble the charts we saw a few days ago. FI is going to be a dream!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

And then moves on to phase the 2 LP`s together in a shallower feature...

gfs-0-174.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

That is some serious shift west on the gfs!!one more shift and hopefully that should be that and we could be looking at a very snowy week for some next week!!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

That is some serious shift west on the gfs!!one more shift and hopefully that should be that and we could be looking at a very snowy week for some next week!!

Problem with that though as on this run, the 850`s never really get lower than zero.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Just now, Stuie W said:

Problem with that though as on this run, the 850`s never really get lower than zero.

They don't need to be very low with winds from the south east.

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