The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Eastfight by ec 00z next week

 

[Spah1]

Model watching is going to be tremendous fun over the next 2 months.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Spah1 said:

Model watching is going to be tremendous fun over the next 2 months.

Yes a mightily impressive strat warming on GFS 00Z

[Ladyofthestorm]

47 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The hunt for cold -- I found it at T384. Diving low followed by true arctic outbreak, on Christmas Eve too. This could fade in and out for a few more days, something like that seems plausible once the increasingly cold zonal runs out of energy and the jet drops away further. Just about the same timing as 2009-10 in the last Modoki type El Nino.

(although that started up with some cold southeasterly stuff before a northerly developed)

The thing about this winter is, parts of the arctic are actually colder than normal, in particular, the Canadian arctic islands and north/west Greenland. So if that anomaly can either expand or shift east, we might get the rare synoptics that many crave. 

I completely agree with your sentiments. Things look like they sit on a knife edge synoptically. While most are looking to the East for a cold source of air, I am looking to the North. What was interesting was the ensembles for that time period. Naturally all over the place with a large spread, but the GFS operational 850pa temps are forecast actually warmer than the GEFS control mean and a significant number of seperate runs of the models. One to watch. Low pressure bringing in a Northern flow of air. 

[Ladyofthestorm]

33 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Good example of the famous M4 snow boundary and it won't be of interest in the media no snow in London

Same thing happened during the ice age. Don't take it to heart . 

[ICE COLD]

13 hours ago, snowray said:

 

Morning 

Not sure why it’s quoting the above (sorry) 

The T168 ECM looks interesting , could that be a snow event ? Nasty little low . 

Also the vortex looks smashed on the ECM this morning . Could get very interesting in the next few weeks. Can’t wait . 

Edited December 8, 2018 by ICE COLD

[nick sussex]

Lots going on. Here are some of the highlights.

The will it or won’t it cold undercut from the east meeting Atlantic fronts still no resolution .

A possible runner low deepening quickly running east across more southern areas , snow on the northern flank possible but again no certainties .

Later on the ECM develops an interesting looking NH pattern , the PV is located favourably with heights lifting over Greenland . The GFS tries to bring in a northerly .

Overall it’s all finely balanced upto day 7 between a damp squib and a few snow events for favoured areas.

Let’s hope it’s the latter!

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Morning 

Not sure why it’s quoting the above (sorry) 

The T168 ECM looks interesting , could that be a snow event ? Nasty little low . 

Also the vortex looks smashed on the ECM this morning . Could get very interesting in the next few weeks. Can’t wait . 

You can quote me as much as you like IC, as long as you post some tasty looking charts with it...only joking!

 

Well I really like the look of UKMO and the ECM this morning, the undercuts around T144/T168 would likely produce snowfall around the country for some of us, its looking very promising to me. Might even be further upgrades in the pipeline, I mean the Scandi high has not even formed yet, Atlantic might die down just a little bit more, all going in the right direction

[northwestsnow]

NH on EC at day 10 is lovely APART from those euro heights-

Need to see the back of those ..

[northwestsnow]

Not too impressed with the EC mean , Icelandic low dominating our part of the NH..

edit looking at the mean and op at 144 suggests a lot of members not seeing the trough distruption so perhaps the mean will be skewed therafter?

Edited December 8, 2018 by northwestsnow

[shaky]

Beautiful ecm and ukmo this morning!!continues the upgrades from yesterday in regards to the scandi high to such an extent we not see a potential snow event across england at least before trough disrupts and slides south east at 168 hours!bring it on!!

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Beautiful ecm and ukmo this morning!!continues the upgrades from yesterday in regards to the scandi high to such an extent we not see a potential snow event across england at least before trough disrupts and slides south east at 168 hours!bring it on!!

well i guess its all about opinions, i prefer UKMO 144 , for me its the pick of the 3 ..

[shaky]

Also if you compare the 144 chart from the gfs yesterday to todays 132 hour chart you can see the trough disruption  taking place slightly further west!after all the doom and gloom last couple of days things have really picked up!!cant wait for a few nights of frost now and then BAM all that snow next week!

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also if you compare the 144 chart from the gfs yesterday to todays 132 hour chart you can see the trough disruption  taking place slightly further west!after all the doom and gloom last couple of days things have really picked up!!cant wait for a few nights of frost now and then BAM all that snow next week!

EC snow charts do indeed show snowfall between 144-168 ..

Although the accuracy of this data is questionable it would be nice to see some snow next week.

my laptop wont post the image but at 141 hours there is snow across much of the country, by 162 wales gets clobbered!!

Edited December 8, 2018 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also if you compare the 144 chart from the gfs yesterday to todays 132 hour chart you can see the trough disruption  taking place slightly further west!after all the doom and gloom last couple of days things have really picked up!!cant wait for a few nights of frost now and then BAM all that snow next week!

I'm loving it too matey, really enjoying watching the models and the friendly debates in here

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also if you compare the 144 chart from the gfs yesterday to todays 132 hour chart you can see the trough disruption  taking place slightly further west!after all the doom and gloom last couple of days things have really picked up!!cant wait for a few nights of frost now and then BAM all that snow next week!

Ideally we want the colder air move in and as far west as possible and then the undercut for full effect. ie, snow potential, UKMO is close to doing this at T144.

[nick sussex]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not too impressed with the EC mean , Icelandic low dominating our part of the NH..

edit looking at the mean and op at 144 suggests a lot of members not seeing the trough distruption so perhaps the mean will be skewed therafter?

That’s often the case with these set ups . The lower resolution ensembles always struggle until closer in to the event .

 

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC snow charts do indeed show snowfall between 144-168 ..

Although the accuracy of this data is questionable it would be nice to see some snow next week.

my laptop wont post the image but at 141 hours there is snow across much of the country, by 162 wales gets clobbered!!

Told ya!!also compare the 120 hour ecm 850 teml chart from 12z yesterday to the 120 hour chart to todays it really is astonishing how much further west the cold air has gone!!its an even bigger difference if you compare it to yesteday mornings 144 hour chart!its madness!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs 00z looks like cold zonality..

ECM too, UKMO would too. The colder theme starts to dig, from today.  As I’ve been saying, we must look north from whence our cold will come.....and confidence is resurgent...and Don’t discount some of the storms.....it could get lively

As RJS says....there’s some exceptional cold areas lurking in the arctic and with the way the JS is behaving southward surges should occur.

Good morning’s runs imo

BFTP

[carinthian]

17 minutes ago, shaky said:

Beautiful ecm and ukmo this morning!!continues the upgrades from yesterday in regards to the scandi high to such an extent we not see a potential snow event across england at least before trough disrupts and slides south east at 168 hours!bring it on!!

Yes, Shaky UKMO best of the runs this morning at 144t in the hunt for cold. -6c 850mb temps close to the East coast as much of NE Britain imports  colder air mass. See where it evolves from here, but will be an interesting weekend to watch if further disruption occurs along the line. Have an encouraging update later for pre Christmas cold spell for much of Europe including Blighty . Today is really the first day of our new ski-ing season and piste in good condition despite the recent mild temperatures, Much colder today with some light snowfalls. Picture below is from the Aineck , the otherside of the mountain from Katschberg. Hope you lot don't get blown away today !

C

[Duane S.]

33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

NH on EC at day 10 is lovely APART from those euro heights-

Need to see the back of those ..

I wouldn't see a Euro height rise as a particular concern. Clearly the pattern (which is extremely easy on the eye) advertised by the EC, could lead to a period of this, but only likely to be transient IMO. A very fluid looking atmosphere. Nice to see ridging appearing closer to the ESB than Mid Atlantic at that stage, as I think the Pacific / NH profile will more likely shunt that eastwards Mid Atlantic and towards us than keep there or draw back west. Albeit I don't yet see any huge north bound WAA bursts for at least a couple of weeks+

EC +168 is a great chart, imagine if we start getting upgrades on this?! I am of course looking at this from a general viewpoint, I am not anticipating anything for my location from this. Not impossible but the upgrades need to keep occuring for a while longer for that to happen! And I currently don't see it leading to anything too meaningful for the short period thereafter (in the D9 - D12 ish range). Still time for this to change as well though.

All this could well pale into insignificance though. It does seem that Xmas - NY is surely the real point of interest, with a incredibly potential filled January to follow on. I think we will soon see some wild FIs creep into the back end of the GEFS.

 

More importantly, we are up to 7 exclamation marks on the Shaky'ometer this morning. Something's brewing!

[Purga]

Mild sector alert!

Good trends this morning though and still pretty much on a knifes edge.

[Met4Cast]

Blizzards for SE England on the ECM..

What an upgrade! Please, just a few more so we can see full undercutting.. 

[Guest]

Fantastic start to the day, i feel something is brewing and its not my cuppa... xmas week could be some fun and games for many, i get the feeling this place is going to be very busy over the next few months, could we be in for a classic old style 70's/80's winter? it would be nice and about time too.

[Methuselah]

Is it my imagination, or has the 'centre of gravity' of the GEFS ensemble slipped ever so slightly towards a colder set of solutions? Anyway, Suffolk's 850s ought to be the best place to look, if an easterly draw has any traction...?