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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Am I seeing retrogression towards Greenland? PV planted to the NE on this run leaves the door open for all sorts of possibilities.

 

Yes pal..

Though with minamal vigor!!.

But given the actions on the upper layers..

Could be undermined!!!..

'Quite something to say'..

Given the POSSIBILITIES!!!!!😲

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Early indications..

Are-non -cold -outlier!!!

Gfs 12z op!!..

Supports are raising there thumbs!!!..

And why not !!!!

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Displacement strat event right the way up the atmosphere on the GFS 12z

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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The GFS 12z is even an even better evolution than I've been hoping for. Good to see a chance for the UK to get in on the action. My way of thinking has been a return to cold in the second week of December and it looks to be heading that way. Already had a good taster here the last few days, - 17 this morning in my location and already down to -11 as I post this. Brief return to milder conditions then hopefully cold and snow to follow. 

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Now over to the East and North Yorkshire Thread looking at that.

At T+240 hrs

18121112_0112.gif

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26 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

GFS putting on a Saturday evening show - no complaints with this as an option for Day 10..

gfsnh-12-240.thumb.png.89010c47db50d29a127fb198ec37d3ed.png

Looks like the GFS has gone to the pub early this evening! Definitely awesome to see.

Edit: In fact, it’s evolution looks similar to that 00Z GEM with that stretchy amplified High Pressure in the Atlantic. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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Just now, DiagonalRedLine said:

Looks like the GFS has gone to the pub early this evening! Definitely awesome to see.

The Beast From the East spiked his drink this afternoon. 

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Good evening people 

Hope you all are ok and having a nice weekend. Well what can I say from my last post which I did last week things are beginning to look good.

if you recall last week the mood was really low on here and we were just looking at the barrel of the Atlantic. As I mentioned then I don't look at the weather more than 5 days ahead, in my opinion looking further than that there is likely to be a higher percentage of inaccuracy.  People were really being dishearted but look what is evolving now with fingers crossed are we about to see a change.

the Atlantic has been quite strong in this past week and even today here in Walthamstow East London it was a horrible morning with heavy rain, there are hints now showing that by next weekend this Atlantic will slow down and this may be the opportunity for our high pressure to get the going ahead and set up place where us collies want to shove it. 

It may be that winds turn northerly and cold air filters south. What I am hoping for is winds to turn northeasterly and then a feed of showers turning to snow. Then eventually an easterly. 

I would still say let's not get too excited yet caution is always good especially if this does nott materialise. I will be watching very carefully how things evolve in the next few days. 

As with a lot of people my heart is crying out as well as my eyes to see the first snow flakes of winter. I am sure we will get there sooner or later. So fingers crossed could we be on the cusp of s pattern change?? 

Time will soon reveal

wushing you all a lovely evening

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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1 minute ago, sorepaw1 said:

The Beast From the East spiked his drink this afternoon. 

Yeah, it must have done. 😂

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Down the boozer or not, those are some stonkeroonie charts...Kudos Blue!:santa-emoji:

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Down the boozer or not, those are some stonkeroonie charts...Kudos Blue!

All starting at around T+168.

From a northerly flow to a 1050mb easterly .

I don't really expect an upgrade that'll do for me let's hope for similar on future runs it's not deep FI either. Imo

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Things which are quicker than the GFS Parallel FV3...

image.thumb.png.09fee46f2492adb325dc20fa6b241819.png

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So, GFS brings festive goodies for all.

I'm not going to drop the optimism i have had for days but i would caution about getting carried away with a GFS op, there is much energy in the Atlantic to be resolved before popping the champagne open, i would want to be seeing the T+192 chart at T+72 before being 100% confident.

Sorry if that sounds patronizing - its not meant to be, steady as she goes.

🙂

BUT , what a lovely run up to Christmas that would be!!Sooooooo much better than wind and rain!

Edited by northwestsnow
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The FV3 maybe giving a more grown up version than it`s sibling...

 

 

gfsnh-1-204.png

Edited by Stuie W

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Looks like the GFS(P), is going the same way as the Op.  Out to 204 and here comes the amplification!

gfsnh-0-204.png?12

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24 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Looks like the GFS has gone to the pub early this evening! Definitely awesome to see.

Edit: In fact, it’s evolution looks similar to that 00Z GEM with that stretchy amplified High Pressure in the Atlantic. 

Looks like the control is out on the town aswell, it’s very good to see, hopefully the ecm will join them in a while...Hic’

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

As pointed out above, GFS 12z P looks more amplified this evening.

Yep, another cracking chart at 228.  The zonal train may be about to be derailed.... but I'm not counting any chickens yet!

gfsnh-0-228.png?12

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What has struck me about this evenings runs so far is that the surge of high heights that creates the block is stronger even than 6 hours ago.  

FV3 228, and then the same time from the 6z:

image.thumb.jpg.0d4a9dd59f51a1ad01a7579fb161d05e.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.12ae4fb729ab398a5926521d182d608c.jpg

This is no longer about random variations, this is the models really latching on to a strong background signal I think.

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

What has struck me about this evenings runs so far is that the surge of high heights that creates the block is stronger even than 6 hours ago.  

FV3 228, and then the same time from the 6z:

image.thumb.jpg.0d4a9dd59f51a1ad01a7579fb161d05e.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.12ae4fb729ab398a5926521d182d608c.jpg

This is no longer about random variations, this is the models really latching on to a strong background signal I think.

Well said, Mike. The models are all fairly similar on the theme just the placement of the ridge and cold feed. This is getting good this zonal stuff 😉

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

What has struck me about this evenings runs so far is that the surge of high heights that creates the block is stronger even than 6 hours ago.  

FV3 228, and then the same time from the 6z:

image.thumb.jpg.0d4a9dd59f51a1ad01a7579fb161d05e.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.12ae4fb729ab398a5926521d182d608c.jpg

This is no longer about random variations, this is the models really latching on to a strong background signal I think.

Yup, the atmos seems pre disposed to Blocking, and i don't think anything has changed, we could debate if the massive SSW in Feb is somehow connected, i'm not sure.

Either way, i did comment on the meto update of a  stormy zonal December the other day that i didn't buy it, and i still don't.But, the critical piece in this jigsaw is getting the Atlantic to play ball,its entirely possible runs like 12Z could vanish into thin air over the next 48 hours, lets hope the potential hole/vaccum can be filled with the azores high, so often the enemy, perhaps for December 2018 it may turn out to be our friend..

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What has struck me about this evenings runs so far is that the surge of high heights that creates the block is stronger even than 6 hours ago.  

FV3 228, and then the same time from the 6z:

image.thumb.jpg.0d4a9dd59f51a1ad01a7579fb161d05e.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.12ae4fb729ab398a5926521d182d608c.jpg

This is no longer about random variations, this is the models really latching on to a strong background signal I think.

Strange isn't it, a week of poor charts then suddenly some terrific runs seemingly out of nowhere.  Not totally unexpected however and is in line with the expectations of some of our more learned posters!  Great stuff, hopefully the ECM will continue the trend.

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