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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

Judah Cohen posted the output from his climate model (aer) 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Steady as she goes!!

EC det is an eye opener and is moving EXACTLY as i hoped it would, the 'vaccum' in the jet exploited by the az ridge, plenty of water to go under the bridge, IF IF IF  we get some consistency over the next 24-48 hours Exeter may have to review the mild wet stormy outlook into December ..

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Steady as she goes!!

EC det is an eye opener and is moving EXACTLY as i hoped it would, the 'vaccum' in the jet exploited by the az ridge, plenty of water to go under the bridge, IF IF IF  we get some consistency over the next 24-48 hours Exeter may have to review the mild wet stormy outlook into December ..

Did i just see 2 of my exclamation marks lol and also the first 2 sentences sound like tight isobars wording!!jokes aside models look better and hopefully we can build on it later!!ecm the best this morning!!

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

11 days off

Look out Ireland?

h500slp.thumb.png.6865dcd2d972d517dada7c35f91fa02c.png

More confident of a cold blip with ppn Wednesday 5th? as is short term but looking more favourable for Scotland as the LP pushes up.

Temps still too much on the mild side for ppn of note.. 

t2mArmagh.thumb.png.37c3a228bb65382a851b126a5c4572e1.png

Iain

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Difference between the ECM, GFS and GFS(P) at day 10 but certainly a trend this morning to build high pressure across the UK, at the very least it'll turn things settled

240ECM.thumb.gif.14139b62e49c22f9c724e970baf071e0.gif240GFS.thumb.png.f9c2a74c2ff731e504ae2ea62fe0a7a2.pngGFSP240.thumb.png.c120834896d480717e79f0dd88208718.png

Extended EPS not really offering much beyond day 10, just a very very watered down signal so I expect they'll be quite a few clusters once again. Great ECM this morning.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

No real change from GFS as it continues with the north/south temperature split over the next week or so

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.e55b141901b4708c94b8cef2438f1f91.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GEM and EC very similar by day 10...

Just need that to get down to day 4 or 5 now..

I'm long enough in the tooth to know that will not be plain sailing, personally i wouldn't expect Exeter to change their outlook on the basis of the 00z runs..

EC was pretty much an outlier later  on so cautious optimism is the buzz phrase for me..

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Summer Sun said:

Not real change from GFS as it continues with the north/south temperature split 

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.e55b141901b4708c94b8cef2438f1f91.png

Have you got a link to those charts?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Have you got a link to those charts?

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

It's under GFS 0.5deg forecast vs NCEP CFSR reanalysis 2m air temperature anomalies:

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Chalk and cheese, GFS still not playing ball... i much prefer to have the ECM on side but I’m not entirely convinced, remember people it’s only one run from the ECM.

Spoiler shortwaves all over the GFS compared to the much cleaner looking ECM.

2F9CD0C2-361A-4BBF-BA6D-391308127BB2.png

ED58BD29-D6EB-4F71-AA05-AF673290E137.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But if that shallow low near Iceland were to slip southeastwards?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
12 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Chalk and cheese, GFS still not playing ball... i much prefer to have the ECM on side but I’m not entirely convinced, remember people it’s only one run from the ECM.

 

Well it’s three ecm ops on the bounce actually .......

 

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z shows us why its wise to be cautious.

Interesting upstream on the gfs 06z op .....looking across the 00z output made me wonder how long a scandi ridge could actually sustain and whether we may not actually see griceland/scandiceland wedges or cut off ridges up there 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The idea of the 'cold' and blocking originating from the NW and not E or NE is something that has appeared the most likely all along. What may happen, if in fact this does develop, beyond that I have no idea this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

Please don't stay at day 10-15!!!

Please don't stay at day 10-15!!!

Please don't stay at day 10-15!!!

Please don't stay at day 10-15!!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

6 eps clusters post day 10 ......looks a good picture at day 10 but the 6 options by day 11 show the wide spread that must exist across the 4 clusters at day 10

 the mist is thickening up again ......... and with the gfs op losing the signal somewhat whilst it’s in the more reliable part of its output, I’m feeling pretty comfortable astride my fence !

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GFS and ECM vary upstream with the US heights. The GFS has them considerably stronger which forces the pattern east, and thwarting any attempt for the Atlantic wave to impact:

ECH101-240.thumb.gif.203c18dca62fb7448f61b9f1979436e0.gifgfsnh-12-234.thumb.png.22eb95462389cb2df22a7fea11f443c6.png

I am not sure if they meet in the middle that will be of much help to the UK?

The GFS outcome would no doubt be the worst-case scenario medium term as that push would sweep away the Arctic Heights and enable a more progressive outcome for the PV becoming less fractured!

The ECM keeps the wintry potential alive.

All above my pay grade so await further clues...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Certainly different from yesterday's 06Z's final destination...If only this afternoon's runs can 'improve' to the same extent that yesterday's did?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

GEFS mean and Control on 06z defy their op and offer the better option:

gensnh-21-5-240.thumb.png.4673da2c52323d4ee5bbd9cf49d545fe.pnggensnh-0-1-276.thumb.png.14f0cd48cc39cb497bffcfb94075e940.png

Early days for sure, but nice to see there is this option!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 certainly develops a big Scandi block, not as well aligned as some of last nights runs, but that's all to play for later, the signal for blocking remains clear, T300:

image.thumb.jpg.32856289a0250db5965f92e45e56a62d.jpg

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