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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

GFS still going with the amplification at 240hrs.  Variations on a theme, but there is a definite pattern showing its hand here!

gfsnh-0-240.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats one helluva anticyclone on 18z.

1050mb scandy - beautiful to look at, lets hope it inches closer to the finishing line tomorrow

Yep was just gonna post it and here it is . 

DBF1C154-98B1-43C5-B583-376543088E44.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well I could certainly live with this, GFS at T276:

image.thumb.jpg.edb4ff3336d65d42f328dca5e74ccab8.jpg

T360 no snow from this massive anticyclone but Atlantic well blocked, get the cold in, the snow will come, great run.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Same old problem, polar vortex raging over Greenland and the same old area... makes it super difficult to get cold spells here.

However, no zonal train I would take right now.. Huge anticyclone would be second best option, chilly and dry.

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

If I was to sum up the trend in the model runs today as they have progressed, I would use just one word - ridgy! For any newbies on this forum, look at the ridges in the Atlantic on numerous runs today. These are crucial if we are to see anything wintry at all. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

This is what I mean by ridgy. Look at that ridge to the west of Ireland on the latest gfsp. This is rare at this time of year. There are many more examples on many models today throughout their runs. It is the opposite to the run of the mill UK winters. 

gfsnh-0-102.png

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This is what I mean by ridgy. Look at that ridge to the west of Ireland on the latest gfsp. This is rare at this time of year. There are many more examples on many models today throughout their runs. It is the opposite to the run of the mill UK winters. 

gfsnh-0-102.png

Just a thought blizzard but even if we don't get the scandi block we could end up with a several day northerly as a possible out come far better  than a dull mild zonal out come imo.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
16 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This is what I mean by ridgy. Look at that ridge to the west of Ireland on the latest gfsp. This is rare at this time of year. There are many more examples on many models today throughout their runs. It is the opposite to the run of the mill UK winters. 

gfsnh-0-102.png

The NH weather is not in a zonal set up.  Full stop.  Period, as they like to say in the US.  Yes, there are strong jet stream winds affecting certain areas including the  UK at the moment, but my view is that these won't last, whether that's due to AAM, MJO or my own Cornflake theory, we don't know, but I do think a cold episode mid December is a distinct possibility. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The ensemble means/ensembles can be sold for scrap for the time being, they just don't have the resolution to be able to handle the incredibly complex pattern we have setting up.

Ops will lead the way - This evening, they've all picked up on the signal for height rises across Scandinavia towards mid-month, the signal could of course be completely dropped again but I don't think it will be.

Some form of blocking seems likely mid-month. Whether we'll get deep cold into the UK though is another question entirely, I'm 60/40 that we wont currently

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
6 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Just a thought blizzard but even if we don't get the scandi block we could end up with a several day northerly as a possible out come far better  than a dull mild zonal out come imo.

 

 

It definitely feels unusual compared to the norm. Let's see what the morning runs bring. We need to see the models consolidate now. If not, I feel we will have to wait quite a long time to see anything wintry. 

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z - it ends this way - emphatically, BLOCKED.  T384:

image.thumb.jpg.8528abaebf3e483994b1f960700bc537.jpg

Even before a T+384 block.

Chart below a northerly flow at T174.he

Could show us a bit of wintery weather.

18120800_3018.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

Nice to see a little hope back in the charts..... I feel that in this set up we'remore likely to see sudden changes occur as we're certainly not in the same place as a lot of recent year's winters have started!

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

41B3D3D6-730E-4FDD-9CA1-F4D4A012DD51.thumb.png.c402e14311ec0b915d1942e18113cee8.png

The FV3 continues the good work from the 12z and helps us sleep better tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3  just out and at T300, this just an erection of warm air towards the pole, VERY amplified solutions cropping up on all models now, no?  Not so much a pattern change, but the pattern some of us bet on in the first place?

image.thumb.jpg.0443c79639b498d3dc36ac23a19d03c0.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
13 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The ensemble means/ensembles can be sold for scrap for the time being, they just don't have the resolution to be able to handle the incredibly complex pattern we have setting up.

Ops will lead the way - This evening, they've all picked up on the signal for height rises across Scandinavia towards mid-month, the signal could of course be completely dropped again but I don't think it will be.

Some form of blocking seems likely mid-month. Whether we'll get deep cold into the UK though is another question entirely, I'm 60/40 that we wont currently

Good post Dan 

Would I be right in saying there's been an indication of scandi height rises since Tuesday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

FV3 is delivering weather porn btw.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

another good GFS P run with snow showers packing in from the east  that this will be a growing trend for the heights to develop to our NE (scandi) during December 

tempresult_jet5.thumb.gif.17c489a8c20f420df3f5f0d4ecae51aa.gif 

tempresult_jzi5.thumb.gif.007125873a96767530aea550dbf87789.gif

tempresult_ucg5.thumb.gif.f66da16893e4b593bafa289108817f5c.gif

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just laugh out loud.  FV3 is just awesome, whether you are a coldie or a mild obsessive, you have to look at this and go 'WOW'!

image.thumb.jpg.d503a0340d781c185791bc09b0123941.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.1dddb597c6311bc5872522b12484873b.jpg

 

It's got an evil face and white eyes.

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