The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Summerstorm]

9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

But without getting to picky on a chart at that distance, look at the big wedge of cloud heading our way.

that cloud is the dividing line between the cooler PM and TM air

Yes but some sunshine or the constant cloud and rain we've had over the last week i know which i'd pick  

And if you compare these two charts from the Midnight run and the Midday run i'd certainly say it's a baby step in the right direction with more amplification being progged.

Although we might end up back at Square one by tomorrow it's still something to hold on to and to give people some intrigue,I'd say this is less than what can be said from some of the output over the last few days. I get your point of course that it could be better but let's take it one step at a time eh 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Summerstorm

[bluearmy]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Day 15 ECM ENS looks pretty good, HP just to our North 

That’s the anomaly Ali - the high is very uk centric ...... poss just north of the n Ireland coast if you want to pin it down ....

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Sinking where to?  - check your crystal ball and let me know ! 

Eps - 50 members 

Why do we need a crystal ball to see the the momentum of the high and the positioning of he jet?

Edited December 17, 2018 by frosty ground

[tight isobar]

Jigsaw pieces falling into plce...

And are both mirroring-and aligning the scope!..

Vortex =pop goes the weasel...in the not too distant!!!...

@elastic banding!!!

#waving force @layer flux @displacement..

Edited December 17, 2018 by tight isobar

[Seasonality]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Such a ridiculous comment, the run as it is clearly shows a high sinking south east and clearly shows atlantic sourced flowing around the high.

It's an improvement but as it stands its just meh!

@bluearmyis a knowledgeable poster, no need to call the comment ridiculous. And meanwhile even the old model goofus is looking to give a more amplified Crimbo. 

[Eskimo]

8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Why do we need a crystal ball to see the the momentum of the high and the positioning of he jet?

What BlueArmy is alluding to is that the forecast amplication occurs which is very positive, what exactly happens to the high is still up for grabs. 

Can people, instead of criticising with snide comments just be polite? You (in general) wouldn't act like that face-to-face. 

Edited December 17, 2018 by PerfectStorm

[Weathizard]

The icon is absolutley useless, it literally only gets posted because it comes out before all the other models, that being said that 180 chart would only end up with the high flattened over us after that.

I know we all love the cold/snow and want it to happen but I honestly think this is an absolute  non starter within the next 10 days, the GFS at the same time is a bore fest with the vortex firing up in a terrible position for HLB prospects and a sluggish high over Europe

Edited December 17, 2018 by Weathizard

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Why do we need a crystal ball to see the the momentum of the high and the positioning of he jet?

it’s not going to gain any more traction than that but I don’t see that it has to sink - probably drift in our direction as the trough pulls se

[SMU]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

it’s not going to gain any more traction than that but I don’t see that it has to sink - probably drift in our direction as the trough pulls se

Just like the GEM 12z ( 1981 evolution ?)

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

it’s not going to gain any more traction than that but I don’t see that it has to sink - probably drift in our direction as the trough pulls se

You can see the core of the heights pivoting and heading south east, they are not drifting they are sinking. 

Of course the next run may add more amplification but as it stands its not a great run.  (new trend or improved trend) pharphs.

[ALL ABOARD]

13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The icon is absolutley useless, it literally only gets posted because it comes out before all the other models, that being said that 180 chart would only end up with the high flattened over us after that.

I know we all love the cold/snow and want it to happen but I honestly think this is an absolute  non starter within the next 10 days, the GFS at the same time is a bore fest.

I can understand what your saying but I actuay regard the icon quite highly as in February with regards to the easterly it pretty much outdid every other model. 

let's not forget no model has covered itself past the 120 in to much glory. 

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by ALL ABOARD

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just like the GEM 12z ( 1981 evolution ?)

Yes - I promise I didn’t have time to contact CMC and get them to change it 

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Moving into phase 6    blocked and colder.  fingers crossed 

I thought phase 4 was a decent for blocking around Greenland.

 

[nick sussex]

That low over the UK is causing mayhem .

The GFS takes ages to split the energy, we want to see this split sooner . Because it drags this out into a mini series the high can never get sufficiently north .

You can see the difference this makes in both tonights ICON and GEM, earlier split is key .

[Lauren]

STOP. THE. SNIPING.

Seriously? It's tedious and makes an unpleasant atmosphere for everyone.

[Sir Mim]

I'm by no means experienced at chart watching/interpretation, but the strengthening jet coming out of eastern Canada at 300H on GFS 12z looks like bad news from a coldie's perspective.  Someone please tell me I'm flat wrong! 

[bobbydog]

Main core of the vortex on the 'right' side of the hemisphere on this run

 

[northwestsnow]

Not sure what to make of the 12zs..

Think we can safely say high pressure will have more influence as we head into Christmas, the million dollar question is where the high migrates too, and i'm not sure the models know at this stage..

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Main core of the vortex on the 'right' side of the hemisphere on this run

 

But still a pretty hefty chunk over Greenland...

Lets see where EC takes us..

GFS strat ends with ..

main core of PV across Western Russia..

Edited December 17, 2018 by northwestsnow

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

But still a pretty hefty chunk over Greenland...

Lets see where EC takes us..

Doesn't necessarily mean bad news though... 

[Weathizard]

I’m very happy to have the high staying over us, will make for some nice seasonal weather as oppose the absolute dirge and deluge we’ve had recently, as someone who works outdoors it will be a big relief.

Personally can’t see much sign of HLB or a cold outbreak in the next 10 days, the Iberian heights are one of the most stubborn and irritating winter sypnotics, especially if the vortex strengthens around Greenland as the GFS suggests.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Weathizard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

44 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Why do we need a crystal ball to see the the momentum of the high and the positioning of he jet?

Pressure is lowering over Iberia and Europe??

 

BFTP

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Pressure is lowering over Iberia and Europe??

 

BFTP

I think we're just seeing a change in the orientation of the high.

[Methuselah]

The potential for a very cold Arctic blast is still there, on Day 16...In the absence of any deep cold to our east (none that looks like coming this way just yet, anyway?) a wee bit of extrapolation might just keep our moods up...?

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The potential for a very cold Arctic blast is still there, on Day 16...In the absence of any deep cold to our east (none that looks like coming this way just yet, anyway?) a wee bit of extrapolation might just keep our moods up...?

Aye Pete, can't wait to have a potential-ball fight with the kids, build a potential-man, luckily I had potential tyres fitted to my landy the other day so I'm all prepared. Potentially....