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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
57 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Looks like reversal I wonder if we could get a 1963 looking at that maybe a week later than 63 but interesting.

But then this warming not a Canadian warming like 63.

But nevertheless it's very interesting I found the gefs was pretty consistent back in winter 2010 so exciting model watching coming up.

Hopefully 

Yeah it looks good, i cant see why there has been so many posts on a downer!! 

yes its not 100% its going to happen but with the current background signals im more than happy, as i said in a post on Saturday the models will flip and flop around..

all the aboard the rollercoaster.

 

fromey

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Couldn't agree with you more, fromey...even without an SSW, the other background signals still point toward cold...:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

It's worth pointing out to people, that whilst we are expecting a quick trop response to this SSW, they can take anything between two and six weeks to have an effect. So just because we're not seeing much evidence of a response in the NWP, it doesn't mean we won't. In reality, if anything dramatic is going to happen, we might have to wait a few days for it to show up in the models. Nothing to worry about at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

And yet the high is sliding south east towards spain

Dry and cold if your expecting the high to shoot through Greenland before the turn of the year well let's just say you will be extremely disappointed..

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Icon starting to smell the Christmas coffee. Not perfect but call it a step towards the ECM solution...

 

 

iconeu-0-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gloucester
  • Weather Preferences: Snow that settles then freezes!
  • Location: Gloucester

There is absolutely nothing about the longer range Met update to cause people to start crying and whinicking that it’s all over and there won’t be any snow. Once/if  a good easterly sets in then pretty much anything is possible in January.

Edited by aitchbomb
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Time will tell but even at T114 there looks to be better heights towards Greenland , could it follow the ICON and give us some new straws !!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Mogreps or EPS I wonder?  

Looks a 12z run so perhaps Mogreps.

but anyway from MetOffice for Xmas day....

046491C7-7799-437A-8CF6-DAC426E949CC.jpeg

Edit - +204 would make it a 00z run actually. 

Edited by bradythemole
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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
23 minutes ago, booferking said:

Looks fine to me but each to there own step in the right direction. 

icon-1-180.png

Yep looks okay some nice gaps in the clouds and only some light showers showing around the coasts and temps ranging from 5-8 degrees just saying and i'd take that after some of the recent weather.

icon-11-180.png

Edited by Summerstorm
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Only this place could see an amplification like the icon T180 after days of meh output and be underwhelmed ....

Such a ridiculous comment, the run as it is clearly shows a high sinking south east and clearly shows atlantic sourced flowing around the high.

It's an improvement but as it stands its just meh!

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

Yep looks okay some nice gaps in the clouds and only some light showers showing around the coasts. 

icon-11-180.png

But without getting to picky on a chart at that distance, look at the big wedge of cloud heading our way.

that cloud is the dividing line between the cooler PM and TM air

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Day 15 ECM ENS looks pretty good, HP just to our North 

9C2CC349-3981-4DB0-94C7-721610A9A38A.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Gfs 12z close to following icon at the 150 hr mark.mighnt not make it here but hopefully para will

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