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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
34 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It can take 1 or 2 weeks following a SSW for it to take effect lower down, so we are talking about 1st or second week of January we should see some impact at our latitude (not necessarily the UK ), so let’s not get too worried about FI charts - they are rubbish at the best of times so trying to forecast the fallout of SSW is impossible at this range. What we can expect to see is a typical borefest of UK winter charts, then Around XMAS a possible flip to something special hopefully. As long as this SSW happens, the UK has a good chance of “big freeze”, the METO are forecasting and monitoring it so let’s stay with that. 

 

Also, I think GLOSEA was seeing a big warming (SSW) in Jan a few weeks back, is this still the case I wonder - and is this warming next week just a precursor- if so 2 back to back SSWs could have some serious potential.

The effects in the UK might be around the 10th January according to some respected members on here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And the FV3 follows its older brother by hinting a change, in early January...Hope it's on the money and smelling some premium coffee!

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter trying to calm the excitement a tad ......

 

Yep . Loving the easterly bit Nick

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Not bad at all

9C548F9A-06D1-4E84-84C4-07CE96525A93.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Wouldn't that northerly be a potential stonker - were it to become real:

Netweather GFS Image

 

ahh that’s what the meto are hinting at thenThat looks like the day after tomorrow scenario,with the Atlantic ocean freezing over as the exceptionally cold arctic air floods south

Would be some interesting polar low developments in that air stream.Nothern Scotland would be cut off from the outside  world ,with that temperature gradient between the warm sea and the upper air temps.

Hope this is the new trend.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ahh that’s what the meto are hinting at thenThat looks like the day after tomorrow scenario,with the Atlantic ocean freezing over as the exceptionally cold arctic air floods south

Would be some interesting polar low developments in that air stream.Nothern Scotland would be cut off from the outside  world ,with that temperature gradient between the warm sea and the upper air temps.

Hope this is the new trend.

There update is going for Easterly rather than a Northerly..

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter trying to calm the excitement a tad ......

 

But still broadly 'on song'.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ahh that’s what the meto are hinting at thenThat looks like the day after tomorrow scenario,with the Atlantic ocean freezing over as the exceptionally cold arctic air floods south

Would be some interesting polar low developments in that air stream.Nothern Scotland would be cut off from the outside  world ,with that temperature gradient between the warm sea and the upper air temps.

Hope this is the new trend.

It would? Just looks like cool zonality to me ..... be excellent on the Scottish hills but that’s what happens a lot in a normal winter .....

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

It seems that things are taking a turn for the worst at the moment with the Metoffice less bullish about the cold spell in January, too.  However, still a long way to go.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It would? Just looks like cool zonality to me ..... be excellent on the Scottish hills but that’s what happens a lot in a normal winter .....

It certainly would, were it to come down straight from the Arctic...

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ahh that’s what the meto are hinting at thenThat looks like the day after tomorrow scenario,with the Atlantic ocean freezing over as the exceptionally cold arctic air floods south

Would be some interesting polar low developments in that air stream.Nothern Scotland would be cut off from the outside  world ,with that temperature gradient between the warm sea and the upper air temps.

Hope this is the new trend.

I’ve been thinking about it since I read this and I’m going to classify this as a “ramp”

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It certainly would, were it to come down straight from the Arctic...

not necessarily,polor lows would form in that bitterly cold air mass,which could give snow to many places,if it verified of course,

if that  384 chart ran a few more days it would end up looking close to feb1969

 

0AD70F16-840F-46B1-AA2E-6BEAA40751DF.png

F88B80BA-46CC-4942-9291-8E8030A35145.png

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

a few more GEFS members showing more charts that are blocked or have ridges of high pressure heading into favourable places for us to get cold down the line, hopefully the start of a trend as we head into the new year.

tempresult_clr8.thumb.gif.095686cb3ab4671a52643b4ffaeb7630.gif

gensnh-1-0-384.thumb.png.4fc46af5f90b96dfbd6e7ba9e147638c.png

tempresult_goa6.thumb.gif.5f13fcf5ba3c546d93484b976e2073c0.gif

gensnh-12-1-324.thumb.png.f81f47eaa238180a088cef2f5c8745a8.png

tempresult_iof7.thumb.gif.32e44b4164bc9a170c5e436e4f1ea452.gif

gensnh-18-5-384.thumb.png.0147027b569e8620aad7bfcc8529f175.png

not sure how good the CMA is at strat forecasts but it has this by the 27th December

1817631985_cmanh-10-240(1).thumb.png.12b44be74a25bcfaeb80895b1c3aaf56.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

It is not a tempering of the message, in fact it is confirmation of their thinking (easterly), just a simple percentage game. the overwhelming signal is for A but B may still happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

not necessarily,polor lows would form in that bitterly cold air mass,which could give snow to many places,if it verified of course,

if that  384 chart ran a few more days it would end up looking close to feb1969

 

0AD70F16-840F-46B1-AA2E-6BEAA40751DF.png

F88B80BA-46CC-4942-9291-8E8030A35145.png

February 1969 was the very event I was thinking of, Sleety... I remember it well!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

 Concerned that some of you are at the stage where you are extrapolating a day 16 gfs op chart on several more days ........

if you are one of these people then you may need help! 

Edited by bluearmy
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16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

February 1969 was the very event I was thinking of, Sleety... I remember it well!

Long before my time old chap.. please do tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

"In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly"

Poor update for the West. Was really hoping for a Greeni high.  Little snow here in the March Easterly. 

Hopefully the high would take a trip to Greenland after Scandi and we can get some troughs in a northerly flow. 

Lancashire still one of the worst places in the country for snow. 

Looking forward to model watching over Christmas however and hope others do well. 

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

"In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly"

Poor update for the West. Was really hoping for a Greeni high.  Little snow here in the March Easterly. 

Hopefully the high would take a trip to Greenland after Scandi and we can get some troughs in a northerly flow. 

Lancashire still one of the worst places in the country for snow. 

Looking forward to model watching over Christmas however and hope others do well. 

I was about to write a post about how various scenarios could form and how different areas could see snow, then I thought, it'd probably be easier if you move

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Another excellent Exeter update, i wouldn't get too hung up on the reference to mild wet and windy, we are an island at the edge of a warm ocean, we are always going to be at the mercy of the Atlantic..

I for one will be keeping a close eye on eps etc for signs of any high pressure ridging into scandy longer term,what i absolutely do not want to see is a growing signal for high pressure to sink into Europe, thats generally a pattern that eats away at large chunks of winter.

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