The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[snowfish1]

Gfs 18z run well underway and its like a ghost town in here  

[January Snowstorm]

Lol the silence speaks volumes about where the 18z is going....

The pub run is decidedly sober tonight more like cold turkey!

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

We had a black hole on the warming from last night's JMA run at 240,+16c

surprised no one posted it.

Edit:this evenings at 192,yes 192.

 

That's a major warming as I replied to Matt tweet.

It's up there with February record breaking stratospheric warming.

Will it go for another record breaker possible very possible.

Rare for warming in December.

also if you look at the northern hemisphere bigger picture there amplitude all over the place the vortex is already wobbly knock out coming.

Shallow heights showing up in all different areas in the northern hemisphere each model hasx its own ideas but they all want to try building blocks.

The temperature gradient on the EC with south very mild and north wintry on Christmas there's nothing to say that the extreme differences in temperature UK north to south could possibly create low pressure systems rolling down from the north and help to relocate the Spanish heights.

So deep purple to our north and east and strong reds to our south.

Who will win the battle this winter of the back of a cold march I'd punt it's definitely looking more encouraging this winter.

Definitely has a sniff of 09/10 about it.

I personally think it's a done deal not for Christmas more around start of January heart of winter could get something special this time.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Lol the silence speaks volumes about where the 18z is going....

The pub run is decidedly sober tonight more like cold turkey!

Much better than last night's run up to day 8. A day of upgrades today which will hopefully build further on the 00z runs.

[MR EXTREMES]

21 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Someone salt the Iberian slug! ASAP

2009 2010 had heights like this and ended up around Scandinavia then retrogressed to Greenland.

Blimey it's the 18z and look how amplified the heights are and how disrupted the vortex is weak.

It's all ticking along nicely.

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters. Christmas day : as suspected, the FV3 12Z held the middle ground now than the ECM op 12Z, which is an outsider 

Now onto the new year : UK ridge looks popular or something slightly west, but not particularly HLB yet

Edited December 16, 2018 by Man With Beard

[Duane S.]

I am viewing the charts with a slightly different pair of glasses at the moment, as I will be in the Western Alps come the big day.

After a few days of poor charts, there has been a notable about turn in the right direction today(both in terms of the UK  and on the slopes over Xmas). The 18z, whilst unspectacular, continues the trend.

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters. Christmas day : as suspected, the FV3 12Z held the middle ground now than the ECM op 12Z, which is an outsider 

Now onto the new year : UK ridge looks popular 

Best clusters I have seen so far this winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters. Christmas day : as suspected, the FV3 12Z held the middle ground now than the ECM op 12Z, which is an outsider 

Now onto the new year : UK ridge looks popular or something slightly west, but not particularly HLB yet

Have you got the directory for those please again - the main menu so you can then navigate to clusters - ec46 etc etc for each day?

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes absolutely. 100% agree. 10 January.  Heart of winter. 

Hope it’s on time unlike the British rail

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Have you got the directory for those please again - the main menu so you can then navigate to clusters - ec46 etc etc for each day?

 

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/

[feb1991blizzard]

It might only be a displacement showing on the GFS operational runs but its a mighty decently positioned one.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018121618&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

[Bullseye]

Add to the uncertainty of Christmas week and towards new year with the continued signals for strat warming last few days of Dec. We now also have the ECM MJO forecast heading towards phase 6, this is a change to two/three days back where it was due to hover around phase 4 or into COD. Model mayhem over next few days as one would expect.

 

 

[weathergeek]

23 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Hope it’s on time unlike the British rail

Hopefully all trains will need to be cancelled altogether!!!

[summer blizzard]

Gfs18z is the third run in a row to show a clear pattern, namely high pressure close to the UK at days 10-15.

[feb1991blizzard]

The GEFS are starting to catch a wiff of that GFS(p) split coffee.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GEFS are starting to catch a wiff of that GFS(p) split coffee.

yes P19 nearly with a full split

a few others (all 20 look pretty good)

 

P13 with possibly immediate response signs could lead to fun and games (I expect more charts will start showing blocking as we head towards the last week of December / first week of January)

a few other models

FIM showing the initial displacement warming 

 

CMA 

NASA/GOES5 0z

GEM 12z possibly trying to build heights to our north just after Christmas

 

GFS P / FV3 also inching towards the split event, think it might get the job done in tomorrows runs

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

GFS P / FV3 also inching towards the split event, think it might get the job done in tomorrows runs

Yes, was going to say that, however, we wont know the actual synoptics as we cant see the strat height profile but i have a fairly good idea of what might happen, thats just about as good as it gets for us, build up of searing cold on the continent while a Greeny delivers the goods, then a topple into scandi to advect the Jan1987 uppers westward at yes, you've guessed it, the coldest time of the year, 

[snowangel32]

I can see why theres not much comment on the 0z pretty boring really the Euro slug never leaves us high pressure predominantly in charge throughout. Xmas day looks dry maybe a wintry shower in the North with temps around average. But again it will look nothing like this come the big day as the models are very volatile at present.

 

[That ECM]

all 3 at t144 ukmo and ecm offer more opportunity for the ridge to build than the gfs. Ukmo is the best of 3 and frustratingly stops at t144. If it was to continue it would look very different to gfs in fi. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Looks like the split's gone tits up, hopefully temporary.

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like the split's gone tits up, hopefully temporary.

The general feeling was this initially was a displacement event with the possibility of a split further on.

A displacement can still deliver the goods but people should keep in mind a SSW does not equal guaranteed cold!

[KTtom]

On 10/12/2018 at 18:27, edinburgh_1992 said:

 

The question, or fear I have is that the follow up warming which was shown a few days ago has vanished from recent runs..here is the end of the latest gfs op. run. Surely without a follow up warming the vortex will strengthen again and re take the pole?

On the plus side...ecm looking very interesting this morning.

Edited December 17, 2018 by KTtom
No idea where that quote came from!?

[That ECM]

Ecm isn’t quiet as good as ukmo imo but look at the differences at t192 compared to gfs. I think fun output is not far away. 

[KTtom]

Ecm 192...pick of the bunch