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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Keep the faith folks ! 

The zonal winds are decreasing , the models can often play catch up in these situations .

Still a messy picture but if we can get some luck with the toppling ridge as in a bit more amplitude . That would be a bonus .

Yes, the signal is not decreasing for sure Nick. NWP will take it's time to resolve the full effects of the downwelling so various scenarios will be played out for a while.

It'll be interesting to watch so enjoy the ride...

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That stands, be where you want to be over the Xmas hols is what I said Not your quote Tim...get it right pal....now where is your LRF?

 

BFTP

Fair enough, so you think the majority of the U.K. will grind to a halt over the Christmas period due to heavy snow still ?  Fair play to you for sticking to your guns, time will tell.  I’ll be in Latvia as that’s where I believe the snow will be! I’ve put my thoughts out there and believe there will be several cold spells in jan early feb. I’ll be very surprised if there’s more than a few wintry showers before new year. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Keep the faith folks ! 

The zonal winds are decreasing , the models can often play catch up in these situations .

Still a messy picture but if we can get some luck with the toppling ridge as in a bit more amplitude . That would be a bonus .

They are high up nick but there are indications that they will increase lower down as any reversal comes into view .......thinking back to feb, we saw the nwp struggling to resolve the slowing pattern once the reversal came into high res .....we are a fair way from that yet ....

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Faith not in the models as such but more the background signals.

There's already interesting charts on the ECM but patients is a must.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They are high up nick but there are indications that they will increase lower down as any reversal comes into view .......thinking back to feb, we saw the nwp struggling to resolve the slowing pattern once the reversal came into high res .....we are a fair way from that yet ....

January could be an absolute belter ..

For the time being a cold high as suggested by EC det would bring a very seasonal Xmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They are high up nick but there are indications that they will increase lower down as any reversal comes into view .......thinking back to feb, we saw the nwp struggling to resolve the slowing pattern once the reversal came into high res .....we are a fair way from that yet ....

True . It’s always a drama !  If we do manage to get a toppling ridge into Scandi then hanging onto the cold as the PV winds up will be the issue before it implodes !

Anyway I’m a lot happier today re prospects than I was a few days back .

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The zonal winds propagating down while displaced east of us ought to be less troublesome then if it was over the N Atlantic... though it’s not always that simple I know (offsets between layers).

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

I now fully understand why you should not view every run and make an assumption. The difference between the GFSP 6z and 12 z is startling (6z excellent)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

I now fully understand why you should not view every run and make an assumption. The difference between the GFSP 6z and 12 z is startling (6z excellent)

 

Both very good from strat point of view, in my opinion, but then the models are much more reliable up there!  The FV3 in particular showing real consistency now.  Where that leads us is not well known at the moment, but it should likely  be the most interesting spell of January weather since 2013.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The common theme at days 10 and 15 is high pressure over/close to the UK.

For those getting excited about the SSW they should bear in mind that lagged effects probably won't deliver until around the 10th.

Yes absolutely. 100% agree. 10 January.  Heart of winter. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I for one would happily accept high pressure near the UK over Christmas..

As long its not to our south or south west..

Pretty much any other location would bring cold nights esp..

GPs post on strat thread suggesting a decent mid winter warming on ext eps..

Ticking along nicely

..

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Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes absolutely. 100% agree. 10 January.  Heart of winter. 

I was born on 10th January 1963. In one of the best winters ever. Im seriously hoping after 56 years to the day, we're  in for another go! 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, StormyWeather28 said:

What did she say? 

Just suggesting colder weather possible christmas week..

As i posted earlier, EC mean has much more HIGH pressure influence tonight..

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I for one would happily accept high pressure near the UK over Christmas..

As long its not to our south or south west..

Pretty much any other location would bring cold nights esp..

GPs post on strat thread suggesting a decent mid winter warming on ext eps..

Ticking along nicely

..

As long as it leads to something good, for me Xmas Day cold is a waste if not white, EC in FI much better though, hopefully good signs developing for very late Dec

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Both very good from strat point of view, in my opinion, but then the models are much more reliable up there!  The FV3 in particular showing real consistency now.  Where that leads us is not well known at the moment, but it should likely  be the most interesting spell of January weather since 2013.

I was only commenting on Xmas week, Mike, seriously appears as a lucky dip at present. Yet another interesting week coming up (sounds familiar)...

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Think coldies should digest that very positive news heartily..

It was there on the 00z run but less convincing and represented the smallest clusters .....hopefully that looks different later 

 

 

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