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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Looks like segment of PV over this side very cold heavy wintry showers and cold judging by that chart.

And of course freezing fog mostly in the west of the UK.

I don't think any model can predict accurately what effects the background signals will have until it's happening or happened.

I'm 50/50 on cold Christmas I'm ATM 80/50 on cold end of December or start of the new year.

Blimey

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.7a04eedd3268ad60e760a8b562a6b5d2.png

06z christmas day swingometers show that today's runs are a small improvement from last night but that isn't exactly difficult. Some more anticyclonic runs for christmas beginning to pop up. The 06z parallel could easily deliver something very wintry if things alligned a touch better. It then decides to park the high right over Europe....

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think some of you are expecting Santa to be real if you think there will be a favourable response in the trop to events in the strat before new year ...... it’s just about feasible to expect to see a trop response a couple days AFTER a ssw at 10hpa but given that we have seen poor strat trop coupling thus far this winter, thats certainly not a given - the question of whether we see trop zonal flow ease off in week 2 as upper strat flow weakens is also questionable as often, stronger flow is flushed down through the strat ahead of any downwelling reversal ...... at the moment, I think everything the nwp is showing at 500hpa is trop led ..... that may change as we get towards mid week but I note the gfs ops have backed away from a technical ssw over the past few runs 

GFS OP is very much on its own regarding that.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

FYI.

An excellent update from Exeter, beginning to sound like they are firming up on a block to the NE judging by their update..(Into Jan).
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

Yep I agree , its a really decent update id say 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

FYI.

An excellent update from Exeter, beginning to sound like they are firming up on a block to the NE judging by their update..(Into Jan).
 

Indeed NWS. And the perfect recipe for some exceptionally low nighttime minima...

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
23 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

GFS OP is very much on its own regarding that.

Well let’s hope it’s just an outlier and not a trendsetter then ...!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, bluearmy said:

I have noted that the gfsp continues to show a temperature split but we cannot see the heights re any reversal or split 

Yes, although what i would say, the GFS threw out a less impressive temp 10mb profile the other day and the height split was much more pronounced, can't remember whether that was going for the bottom up split or whether it was the one that showed a really defined split at 1mb, either way though it was good.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Longer term signal is still stunning..I don't mind short term mild pain if it leads to mid / longer term cold gain!!!..fingers crossed etc!!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
26 minutes ago, Purga said:

Indeed, prior to the arrival of 'The Beast' at the end of last winter the NWP was pretty uninspiring for quite some time but the longer term signal was strongly cold.

This is the case now, so keep smiling through the drizzle this week !

Patience is the key. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Altogether if one is keeping one 's expectations at a sensible level as we head through the Xmas period then things are ticking along nicely with the prospect of some proper January winter weather for the first time in 5 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, it's exciting that we may actually see some wintry weather in winter for a change!!!..usually we have to wait until march!!!...anyway, beyond the reliable something wintry is potentially cooking..background signals etc..everything crossed!:santa-emoji:❄️

I would say that's pretty much all we can do sit back and wait 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

This is a chart thats full of promise for the new year, you can see where the high is likely going to end up, good chance of heading up towards Iceland, all a long way off of course.☺️

gfsnh-0-384.png

gfsnh-5-384.png

gfsnh-1-384.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
2 hours ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Looks like segment of PV over this side very cold heavy wintry showers and cold judging by that chart.

And of course freezing fog mostly in the west of the UK.

I don't think any model can predict accurately what effects the background signals will have until it's happening or happened.

I'm 50/50 on cold Christmas I'm ATM 80/50 on cold end of December or start of the new year.

I was kidding around with Pete. I’m still staying with my LRF, a pretty cold Xmas with some surprises to be thrown in.  No serious blocking until New Year.  Bitter cold throughout January

GFSp looking good at Xmas Day

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I have noted that the gfsp continues to show a temperature split but we cannot see the heights re any reversal or split 

 

Not the parallel but the regular gfs from yesterday with heights 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I have noted that the gfsp continues to show a temperature split but we cannot see the heights re any reversal or split 

It's also worth noting that the GFS(P) is due to become the Operational in January.

If that's the case, we should probably be taking more notice of the Parallel than the Op.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Look what's coming from the north liking the ICON.. 

iconnh-0-141.png

icon-0-156.png

Until we lower those heights over Spain/Iberia then there isn't going to be much coming down from the north.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Until we lower those heights over Spain/Iberia then there isn't going to be much coming down from the north.

It depends how you look at it, AWD...Iberian heights will only stick around so long as nothing comes down from the north, to push them aside??

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
59 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Bitter cold throughout January

 

Bitter cold throughout January?..oh my, looking forward to the models showing that!!!:santa-emoji::drunk::cold-emoji:

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