The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Seasonality]

Just a friendly reminder about not taking FI too seriously. In the space of 24 hrs ECM has gone from showing a maximum temperature of +7 on Xmas eve for my location to -5. You've got to laugh. 

[Johnp]

6 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Helen Willett on breakfast weather on the bbc was hinting that a colder and potentially snowy outlook was possible from next weekend and xmas week so not all hope lost

Can you elaborate on what was said?

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Helen Willett on breakfast weather on the bbc was hinting that a colder and potentially snowy outlook was possible from next weekend and xmas week so not all hope lost

That’s what I mentioned in post above need to read between lines I expect big changes 120 mark folks getting to down beat at t 300 charts..

[Weather-history]

Here's the northern hemisphere Christmas Day chart from 1928, 90 years ago. This was from one of the great winters of the 20th century.

Look at the tropospheric polar vortex on that chart. 

A month later

[Mike Poole]

Full house this morning:

[Methuselah]

Anywho, I am not unduly worried by the presence of an Iberian HP area: should the vortex disrupt/displace favourably, said HP area wouldn't last long...?

Concentrate on developments away to our northwest-northeast, it'll be from there that any 'good stuff' comes from...

 

[Met4Cast]

9 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Helen Willett on breakfast weather on the bbc was hinting that a colder and potentially snowy outlook was possible from next weekend and xmas week so not all hope lost

Oddly confident from the BBC there.. I wonder what they're basing that on, I know they don't have access to any MOGREPS data, Meteogroup seem to be focused entirely on ECM data and given there's little support for anything "cold and snowy" within the EPS i'm a little confused. 

Some support for colder weather, but certainly nothing to indicate a widespread snow risk and certainly nothing to suggest the BBC should be talking about that type of weather 9 days out. 

Would have to be some fairly big flips in the model output for that

[tinybill]

5 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

That’s what I mentioned in post above need to read between lines I expect big changes 120 mark folks getting to down beat at t 300 charts..

all  eyes  on country  file later,  yep bbc are hinting  about  cold weather xmas  week   they must know something the other  models  don't  know!!!

 

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Oddly confident from the BBC there.. I wonder what they're basing that on, I know they don't have access to any MOGREPS data, Meteogroup seem to be focused entirely on ECM data and given there's little support for anything "cold and snowy" within the EPS i'm a little confused. 

Some support for colder weather, but certainly nothing to indicate a widespread snow risk and certainly nothing to suggest the BBC should be talking about that type of weather 9 days out. 

Would have to be some fairly big flips in the model output for that

Made more baffling by their monthly outlook being very confident that all of December, but particularly mid December would see mild south westerlies. They seem to have gone down hill a bit since parting ways with the Met Office.

Edited December 16, 2018 by MattStoke

[Singularity]

You'd think we could manage a more negative AO by this point... it's close but no cigar in the 00z model runs. Perhaps the BBC's angle relates to that.

Never ceases to amaze me how uninspiring GFS can manage to make its output during times of major stratospheric turmoil. It really is as if it gives up and reverts to climatology but with a Nina-like twist for bad measure (the negative AAM bias remains clear in its GWO projections for day 10+).

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Made more baffling by their monthly outlook being very confident that all of December, but particularly mid December would see mild south westerlies. They seem to have gone down hill a bit since parting ways with the Met Office.

Maybe they've been keeping an eye on this thread, Matt?

[Met4Cast]

Given GFS(P) consistency on splitting the SPV at the end of the month and the Met Office being rather bullish of colder weather impacting the UK week 2 of January (currently giving 30% chance of impact sooner) one must presume that GLOSEA5 is continuing to signal a split SPV with some consistency, the Met are rarely as bullish as that unless they're incredibly confident. 

Vortex looks likely to be initially displaced towards the Siberian side of the Arctic (GFS/ECM forecasts agree with that) that, combined with favourable MT/FT/and the recent +AAM spike favouring blocking you'd imagine early-Mid January has the potential to produce something very special indeed.. 

Latest MJO projection suggests a more amplified state phase 4/5 (anomalous with SSW's)

Given that.. I am expecting to see a "flip" of sorts within the models. Could be a dramatic "all models suddenly gunning for cold" flip, or it could be a slower evolution as per latest EPS. 

[Scandinavian High.]

14 minutes ago, tinybill said:

all  eyes  on country  file later,  yep bbc are hinting  about  cold weather xmas  week   they must know something the other  models  don't  know!!!

 

This one looking interesting to the north east at 120 I expect  major flip within models..

Edited December 16, 2018 by abbie123

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

This one looking interesting to the north east at 120 I expect  major flip within models..

Must admit i had a feeling the az high would ridge north at this point myself.

 

[Methuselah]

IMO, for cold and snow to be here by Xmas, that pesky Atlantic low will need to slip into Europe?

Scratch that idea! 

Edited December 16, 2018 by Ed Stone

[northwestsnow]

WRT to Helen Willet-gate..

i would be delighted if she is proved correct and we do see a flip in the NWP, call me doubting Thomas but i doubt very much there is much evidence to back that theory up?

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

WRT to Helen Willet-gate..

i would be delighted if she is proved correct and we do see a flip in the NWP, call me doubting Thomas but i doubt very much there is much evidence to back that theory up?

Certainly none that's currently appearing in NWP outputs..

[Scandinavian High.]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Must admit i had a feeling the az high would ridge north at this point myself.

 

 The energy in the  Atlantic looks progressive when we get to this time frame could be less so and  more influence   From high to the north east time will tell..

Edited December 16, 2018 by abbie123

[SLEETY]

53 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM op has no support for the 25th and 26th when compared to the mean on the 850s. The chances of anything overly cold in the next 10 days or so do look slim though.

keeps doing that a huge mild outlier in fl,model has lost the plot so to speak

Edited December 16, 2018 by SLEETY

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Certainly none that's currently appearing in NWP outputs..

Agreed Dan.

Of course the pros have access to more data but there really would have to be a monumental flip to bring much hope of cold or snow in Xmas week from where i'm sat..

Lets not forget she didn't predict cold or snow but said there is a possibilty -its the 16th of Dec so christmas week is next week, a lot can change in 7 - 10 days..

Either way , lets see how the next 48 hours or so look, will be interesting..

Edited December 16, 2018 by northwestsnow

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Certainly none that's currently appearing in NWP outputs..

Didn't Thursday's model output look great? Ec46 is based on Thursday's ec

[Weathizard]

If it wasn’t for such a damn strong Iberian high this chart would look mildly promising.

[blizzard81]

My advice to anybody who is feeling dispondent this morning is to look at these two charts for next Saturday morning. The first is the recently updated gfs 06z and the second is from yesterday morning's run for the same time. Massive improvement imo. 

[northwestsnow]

Acc to Retron on TWO eps dont offer much hope either- a 10% chance of an air frost by the 29th ..

Fraid i will be ignoring any hope offered by the BBC forecast..

All that said, its still mid Dec so very early in proceedings , although i would say i would want to be seeing better NWP products than we are currently being subjected to!

Edited December 16, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Didn't Thursday's model output look great? Ec46 is based on Thursday's ec

EC46 was a great update though blocking doesn't get going on that model until January - Thursday is a long time ago in the weather world, however