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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

18z is horrible -

Onto tomorrow..

 

Look what that ridge is doing to the strat though in FI!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I didnt think it looked as good as 12z TBH..

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018121518&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=384

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18z is horrible -

Onto tomorrow..

edit : It does improve right at he very end..

 

That’s what your mid lat high late on can lead to ......fits ok with eps clusters and also the expected strat developments ....

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Couple of tweets from Ian F regarding timings of SSW. 

Screenshot_20181215-224723.thumb.jpg.f1ccbb1129464ddc28b8da86cf9c0c3c.jpg

So all still to play for and suggestions of GFS being slightly to aggressive at this given time?... 

Exactly why I'm paying limited attention to every little detail within each run, models are going to be all over the place in the coming days so whether its a chart to die for or one for the so called bin, i wont take to much notice at this point. Trends yes, little differences between runs, absolutely not

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, bluearmy said:

Btw, the split works up the strat, bottom to top ...

Yes, looks like its the ridge that does the trick.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

I suppose that’s the encouraging thing about this (and even the previous 12Z) GFS runs, is that both of them build pressure in Fantasy Island and push away the Atlantic train.

Some nice Stratospheric warming signs as some pointed to, as well.

Would agree that because of the disruption the models are showing high up in the atmosphere, then some wild swings in the models seems quite likely (despite that each operational model run can sometimes vary quite a lot in FI anyway). 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
2 hours ago, North East Blizzard said:

Speaking on twitter to a guy tonight who literally loves all things vortex related, he is massively optimistic about the current and future warming's, believes a split is likely, not UK based but still thinks a Xmas northerly for us is not out the question either.

Lets hope he is reliable

Love it!

Internet chat seems to have replaced 'fat bloke down the pub'. 

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Love it!

Internet chat seems to have replaced 'fat bloke down the pub'. 

If only i was at the pub, girls are ill so my evening is pretty unexciting, In all seriousness guy is legit, cant make up the kind of knowledge he has, tbf he is only saying what many an expert is now predicting. Wont post links to his tweets because that isn't something i am comfortable with, Anyway guys on here just as knowledgeable predicting similar, so nothing new, hes just very bullish  

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 minute ago, North East Blizzard said:

If only i was at the pub, girls are ill so my evening is pretty unexciting, In all seriousness guy is legit, cant make up the kind of knowledge he has, tbf he is only saying what many an expert is now predicting. Wont post links to his tweets because that isn't something i am comfortable with, Anyway guys on here just as knowledgeable predicting similar, so nothing new, hes just very bullish  

Due diligence is severely missing on here. 

And in all seriousness, one thing i've noticed this Winter is that the LRFs are noticeably diverse.

My own view is that heights to our South/ South West and to our East will see a 'resident trough' over Blighty for much of Winter. Probably relenting towards end Jan/early Feb.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

The 18z GEFS for christmas days are one of the blandest yet, with the parallel being the best on offer. Many rather mild runs on there unfortunately.

image.thumb.png.50a89c3b963d7d5ea19ad867f2213d2d.png

Pretty frustrating that as soon as the 12z output came out yesterday with some promise for the christmas period, things have markedly swung the other way to mild again. Gutted... 10 days away but we would have to see a dramatic change for something really wintry. Best I can hope for is a toppler northerly or a brief cold zonal spell.  

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Just in from the pub.

Interesting to see the GFS with a Scandi high and easterly at the end of its run. Wonder if it's starting to pick up on strat developments and if we'll start to see some stellar charts appearing.

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Posted
  • Location: Shaw, oldham
  • Location: Shaw, oldham
10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The 18z GEFS for christmas days are one of the blandest yet, with the parallel being the best on offer. Many rather mild runs on there unfortunately.

image.thumb.png.50a89c3b963d7d5ea19ad867f2213d2d.png

Pretty frustrating that as soon as the 12z output came out yesterday with some promise for the christmas period, things have markedly swung the other way to mild again. Gutted... 10 days away but we would have to see a dramatic change for something really wintry. Best I can hope for is a toppler northerly or a brief cold zonal spell.  

10 days is a long time, whatever they're showing 2day... probably won't be within 75% in 3 days time, never mind 10?? Just saying :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Just now, Law of averages!! said:

10 days is a long time, whatever they're showing 2day... probably won't be within 75% in 3 days time, never mind 10?? Just saying :hi:

We can hope... though the milder runs are zonal in character , it's hard to see where any sudden notable cold may come from. If there was a few really cold runs in there I wouldn't be so pessimistic but the best in there is fleeting cold behind passing low pressure systems.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
59 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

If only i was at the pub, girls are ill so my evening is pretty unexciting, In all seriousness guy is legit, cant make up the kind of knowledge he has, tbf he is only saying what many an expert is now predicting. Wont post links to his tweets because that isn't something i am comfortable with, Anyway guys on here just as knowledgeable predicting similar, so nothing new, hes just very bullish  

Or just full of "bullish"....

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Get that energy into east of Greenland and it’ll help build the high into West Greenland/Iceland and all will fit into place (towards a cold incursion). 

It’s really tough viewing at the moment but be patient. It was quite a special summer, and odds are this winter will be special too.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

No surprises there’s no comments on the 0z, absolutely hideous horror show. Let’s hope the SSW delivers for us, as the vortex seems to be becoming more organised at this point.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
6 hours ago, North East Blizzard said:

If only i was at the pub, girls are ill so my evening is pretty unexciting, In all seriousness guy is legit, cant make up the kind of knowledge he has, tbf he is only saying what many an expert is now predicting. Wont post links to his tweets because that isn't something i am comfortable with, Anyway guys on here just as knowledgeable predicting similar, so nothing new, hes just very bullish  

You can’t believe what some random person on twitter says.Anyone can setup a twitter account and pretend to be an expert in any field.He could have copied the ‘ kind of knowledge he has’ Will you believe everything I say if i set up a twitter account then

Rememer this regular years ago down our local,used to dress up really smart,super expensive looking suit,whenever a pretty girl entered,would make a beeline to her,and tell her he was a top stockbroker in London,really put it on.He was the local toilet cleaner,street sweeper in our High Street

Anyway the models so far today are complete  junk if your hoping to see signs of the change to very cold weather returning.

Maybe could be after the 1st week of january that the change should hopefully begin,or perhaps later as the METO seem to allude to now in their latest forecast.

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
15 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

No surprises there’s no comments on the 0z, absolutely hideous horror show. Let’s hope the SSW delivers for us, as the vortex seems to be becoming more organised at this point.

Vortex getting more organised just in time to generate some real cold to our north ready to be ejected out with the SSW  

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Not even commenting on GFS 00Z as it is pretty grim..

EC 144

ECE1-144.GIF?16-12

Profile to the NE becoming interesting , just need to see the back of those heights across Spain, 1030 mb high needs to do one..

GFS 144

gfseu-0-144.png?0

similar , those heights over spain again..

Edited by northwestsnow
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