The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Seasonality]

26 minutes ago, IDO said:

I for one want rid ASAP. 

Really? But then you wouldn't be able to reappear and post every time the output looks mild. I could set my watch by you. 

There is plenty of time left until Xmas which is still in FI. ECM has flip flopped over the past few days and not shown true consistency. UKMO still shows a less flat pattern, FV3 showing interest in FI, compared to the soon to be outdated gfs op run. So there we are, but you knew all of that already. I know your game. 

[Dave Kightley]

ECM is proper .... Zzzzzz What hell happened? Can't be too long before that signal comes back

[ArHu3]

28 minutes ago, IDO said:

I think we all expected the GFS (yesterday 12z) to backtrack viz developments around D10, ergo Greenland, as it has only small cluster support, and it was likely overdoing pattern changes as it does at that range. GEM keeps the wedge of heights but simply there is no cold to draw and we probably end milder than average (IMBY). ECM is consistently bad for cold.

Although the upstream pattern is not flat-flat, it might as well be, as any attempted ridge development just gets shoved east in the flow, helping with that fluid non-blocked upstream profile. The lack of any Pacific Wave strength is meaning that the trop PV although ripe for the taking instead can just meander around with little disturbance, still showing no sign of wanting to reform. Of course, this is also a negative for trop to strat would almost certainly be a precursor for a more potent SSW. 

All in all, we really do need the pattern to reset, or an early SSW, as the current repeating pattern hasn't worked so far this Winter, so I for one want rid ASAP. 

 

EC's mjo forecast is all over the place though, hopefully we end up getting a favorable one 

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

ECM is proper .... Zzzzzz What hell happened? Can't be too long before that signal comes back

As others have said, GFS was leading us up the garden path..

Lets see how the next few days pan out model wise.

Patience is going to be required.

[IDO]

11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Really? But then you wouldn't be able to reappear and post every time the output looks mild. I could set my watch by you. 

There is plenty of time left until Xmas which is still in FI. ECM has flip flopped over the past few days and not shown true consistency. UKMO still shows a less flat pattern, FV3 showing interest in FI, compared to the soon to be outdated gfs op run. So there we are, but you knew all of that already. I know your game. 

I try not to post when cold charts are showing, especially when I believe they are unlikely to happen as it is clearly taken the wrong way! So I just add my thoughts in quieter times as to what is going wrong, just musings from an amateur, so please take it for what it is, no conspiracy I assure you!

Of course it can all flip, but I am not seeing any strong background signal in the medium term, so until I do, just reporting what I see and why all the FI eye candy is just that. Cheers.

[ArHu3]

19 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

ECM is proper .... Zzzzzz What hell happened? Can't be too long before that signal comes back

EC is confused by the mjo, it's all over the place 

[Frosty.]

Painful Ecm / Gfs 00z for coldies, nothing wintry after today, it looks atlantic driven / drivel, hardly any frost, no snow apart from possibly a bit for the scottish mountains. 

[mulzy]

As Frosty and others have intimated, the NWP is pretty ordinary this morning - no point sugar-coating that fact.  However, with developments in the Strat and with the MetOffice so bullish about cold weather, this place will soon be buzzing again.  Keep the faith folks - after the medium term pain comes the long-term gain!

Edited December 15, 2018 by mulzy

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, IDO said:

I try not to post when cold charts are showing, especially when I believe they are unlikely to happen as it is clearly taken the wrong way! So I just add my thoughts in quieter times as to what is going wrong, just musings from an amateur, so please take it for what it is, no conspiracy I assure you!

Of course it can all flip, but I am not seeing any strong background signal in the medium term, so until I do, just reporting what I see and why all the FI eye candy is just that. Cheers.

Its fine to do this, even in this thread, but given the threads have changed, surely only if you also do post them, when you do think they are going to happen, if not then not only could you choose a better thread for your post, you are using totally the opposite thread.

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

As Frosty and others have intimated, the NWP is pretty ordinary this morning - no point sugar-coating that fact.  However, with developments in the Strat and with the MetOffice so bullish about cold weather, this place will soon be buzzing again.  Keep the faith folks - after the medium term pain comes the long-term gain!

Agreed Mulzy.

We got to hope Exeter are on the ball and the strat warming has a positive influence for us..

Have enjoyed this weeks cold dry weather, hopefully it will return post christmas.

[booferking]

I guess we have to wait the EC looks  this morning i will give it to early next week to see if Christmas mircale is dead..

[SLEETY]

Can't believe their isn't more excitement in the forum considering the METO have now joined the rest of us who have been forecasting a very cold end to the year,start of the new year.The last time I can remember then being this confident so far out was the cold blast in end of Feb this year and end of Nov2010

look how they both turned out!

Models won't pick.up in it yet as its not in their time frame...yet.Keep the faith!

 

 

[bobbydog]

 

[P-M]

Also people hanging on individual runs. Not being funny but until there are consistent runs and professionals saying there's been a turn around then I don't see any reason to be so dispondent this morning. 

[snowblizzard]

As always in UK, patience will definitely be required.

I think we now have to forget anything in terms of significant cold & snow happening countrywide during December!

Surely, with the strong signal for SSW combined with other positive atmospheric drivers, something in the way of severe wintry weather will develop during January or February?

Edited December 15, 2018 by snowblizzard

[Scandinavian High.]

I’m very happy what’s going on high up in the stratosphere so exciting times ahead. Xmas is ten days away so still time for a change colder setup Met Office also mentioned colder weather to come later on I expect models to start picking up on a cold spell soon rather then later...

[Summer Sun]

Reasonably good support for the ECM op this morning on the 850s when looking at the mean. I think a lot of patience is going to be required for those seeking deep cold.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Strange 18z GFS tonight. Iberian heights balloon.

0z follows, that could be a right spoiler as will stop any LP dropping ESE or SSE.  I’ll watch out for that as it is a little concern as I’m not anticipating any strong block to NE this side of New Year and things could get ‘confined’ to the far north.  Not a good morning medium term chart wise 

To add GFS ok on Xmas Eve,   though it’s still at day 8-10 so no panic.......yet

 

Edit.....timing of importance....22nd onwards and looked at models closer rather than glance.  Scenario anticipated higher heights to S/SW getting shoved south as a deep LP (could be extension of main driving trough over northern Scandi) to shift over U.K. moving generally SE to bring pM winds/airmass wNW swinging to N then NE winds over Xmas.  GFS has that with GFS p similar but colder.  ( I hope more  p and colder still.  UKMO actually looks to be heading that way and ‘could’.....could turn out colder.  ECM....don’t like it.

BFTP

Edited December 15, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[daz_4]

Well, certainly not what I wanted to see. Strong SW winds exactly on Christmas day from ECM and GFS this morning. Fascinating how it happens almost every year in Central Europe. Hoping for a change.

[snowblizzard]

1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

Well, certainly not what I wanted to see. Strong SW winds exactly on Christmas day from ECM and GFS this morning. Fascinating how it happens almost every year in Central Europe. Hoping for a change.

Yep, scenes on Christmas cards should have been changed to wet & windy many years ago! 

[Scandinavian High.]

3 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Well, certainly not what I wanted to see. Strong SW winds exactly on Christmas day from ECM and GFS this morning. Fascinating how it happens almost every year in Central Europe. Hoping for a change.

It’s looking colder on Christmas Day with gfs Maybe  we can upgrade on that over next few days..

[lassie23]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Reasonably good support for the ECM op this morning on the 850s when looking at the mean. I think a lot of patience is going to be required for those seeking deep cold.

Probably have to wait for December 2019.

[Met4Cast]

Lots of negativity in here (I can understand why, the output is rather rubbish at the moment)

GEFS show a fair amount of split out in the extended, some members trending colder but nothing especially cold just yet

MJO moving through phase 4, though a fair amount of split later on regarding how amplified the pattern will be, likely that's causing some models to be a little volatile, we're seeing fairly big swings between outputs.

EPS tends to be along with OP, rather progressive with relatively little blocking showing up on the chars, however high pressure does begin to build out on the extended EPS, rather in line with what the EC46 showed. Stratospheric modelling continues to be favourable, though I'd like to see more splits appearing in the output in the coming days.

I'm going to post 2 charts from the EC46 for early January.

Upper air charts for days 8-10 show rather large divergence between ECM/GFS

GFS cluster charts (I know, right) showing a pretty wide difference in possible outcomes

It's possible the MJO uncertainty within the models is causing NWP to be a little topsy turvy, GFS probably was a little too fast with the height rises to our North in the last couple of days but background signals (GDSM, AAM, etc) do support height rises, the Strat is currently undergoing a warming and this can throw the models into chaos too as they try to handle the outcome of the warming. 

Lots to play for, Christmas period is far from set in stone yet. 21-25th December period continues to look interesting to me, if not purely because of the huge amount of possible outcomes. 

Last nights EPS clusters all over the place with the majority holding only 29% of the support (Atlantic/Greenland block, btw)

Don't count your chickens just yet, it's still all to play for..

 

[Ali1977]

No point worrying about FI charts being boring etc, the Stratosperic picture won’t be seen on any models yet - and although I’d love the UK to have a white Xmas I think any big freeze due to a possible SSW won’t be till New Year or just after. Just some normal winter type stuff till then, although today some will get lucky up North and at altitude!! I would hope to see some better looking FI charts by late this next week if all goes in our favour 

[Man With Beard]

FV3 still with an Atlantic ridge before Christmas, though a little more muted