Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

I agree. The GFS is going along with a very wavy  Jetstream.  A theme of last winter if I remember rightly. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS T234:

image.thumb.jpg.eb8be0e169f9c7e341df758a8d2ddf65.jpg

Don't rate it if I am honest.  Never mind. I'm sure there will be lots more ridiculous runs tomorrow.  

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T234:

image.thumb.jpg.eb8be0e169f9c7e341df758a8d2ddf65.jpg

Don't rate it to be honest.  Never mind. I'm sure there will be lots more ridiculous runs tomorrow.  

Now the GFS has jumped ship, cue the ECM to climb on

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Now the GFS has jumped ship, cue the ECM to climb on

Was just thinking the same ,  ECM will now throw out a stonking run . Always the way . 

Edited by ICE COLD
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Much more importantly with respect to the GFS 18z run, is this up in the stratosphere.  First warming, we know about this one, now at T216:

image.thumb.jpg.0a2d0198a8ef93358dc0c57fa01175f1.jpg

But now the later evolution is showing a split, T384:

image.thumb.jpg.8e33712e95802c551e98423ef1c7c641.jpg

First time on an op run I think - expect this signal to grow on subsequent runs, maybe quite quickly!!!

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Yeah, you may need one tomorrow with the rain, sleet and possible snow the models show.

Maybe might be worth looking up some lamp post makers within your area of Scotland, and contacting any within the closest proximity to you. Just then got to hope one of the makers will install a lamp post in time ready for the arrival of tomorrow’s wintry, stormy, weather.

Hope that’s of some help.

Lamp post makers you say...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Euro 4 model, which I normally find to be pretty accurate has some quite significant but brief snow accumulations tomorrow. 

DABB31F8-B21A-4189-B785-7F1BA4FA0491.jpeg

44A05691-37BB-478E-8AEE-54BE3257E5E6.jpeg

61C68947-879A-4F95-AF8F-36327FE1CEEB.jpeg

06CACAC5-1AAC-42C1-A407-4CBBCD5245FC.jpeg

0AEC1B5E-3F0B-4C5D-86E1-48D102B66B9A.jpeg

27444E14-AC8F-4D05-877B-6D19CD3CD63B.jpeg

Edited by MattStoke
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that a split vortex at the end ??? 

A2723B51-6295-4EAE-8433-5CB9A805AF3A.png

I guess it could be since that pretty orange glow does seperate both the purple-blue blobs.

Plus Mike Poole seems to think it is. (Do confess to not being an expert about these warming events with still a lot to learn). 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Euro 4 model, which I normally find to be pretty accurate has some quite significant but brief snow accumulations tomorrow. 

DABB31F8-B21A-4189-B785-7F1BA4FA0491.jpeg

27444E14-AC8F-4D05-877B-6D19CD3CD63B.jpeg

44A05691-37BB-478E-8AEE-54BE3257E5E6.jpeg

61C68947-879A-4F95-AF8F-36327FE1CEEB.jpeg

06CACAC5-1AAC-42C1-A407-4CBBCD5245FC.jpeg

0AEC1B5E-3F0B-4C5D-86E1-48D102B66B9A.jpeg

Thats all looking pretty good to me. then its on to the next hunt! will it be xmas or will it be the new year maybe it could be both, something is defo brewing and i think this place will be in full on meltdown mode very soon. a very special period of UK winter weather is just around the corner, we will still be speaking of this in many years to come.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

@Mike Poole it is P18 this time that is nearly at the split warming stage 

gensnh-18-7-384.thumb.png.5f14781a585c098e9efdae3ab7ac1a21.png

some other interesting looking charts from the 18z GEFS 

gensnh-1-1-384.thumb.png.0ee9c6c79e7214e9f54cfa43c6c6c2a6.pngtempresult_mkk6.thumb.gif.452af20c50c15a0838b49e89b66bc015.gifgensnh-18-1-384.thumb.png.89528862ee482b7ab12cc98c972f55c2.png  

gensnh-18-5-384.thumb.png.a1e30db2c6d79722e37cd2fa3e9a1b4e.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 actually looking decent for Xmas here T252

image.thumb.jpg.e173aa648f6406bedc77faed7dc5f373.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c8a65a9699b37eb3802336e5473f74fc.jpg

This is probably the best, lowest T850 temps that could be expected given the run up considering the NH as a whole.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
25 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@Mike Poole it is P18 this time that is nearly at the split warming stage 

gensnh-18-7-384.thumb.png.5f14781a585c098e9efdae3ab7ac1a21.png

Yes, that's what we will certainly start to see across the model suite in the next few days, @Kirkcaldy Weather you are a harbinger of snow.  ❄️, all power to you!

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 actually looking decent for Xmas here T252

image.thumb.jpg.e173aa648f6406bedc77faed7dc5f373.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c8a65a9699b37eb3802336e5473f74fc.jpg

This is probably the best, lowest T850 temps that could be expected given the run up considering the NH as a whole.

I am beginning to wonder if the FV3 is suffering the same high amplification disease as what the ecm used to suffer with regards to Greenland heights. Just saying! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that's what we will certainly start to see across the model suite in the next few days, @Kirkcaldy Weather you are a harbinger of snow.  ❄️

 that the signal for a split event continues to grow, could already be some positive results for us coldies from the initial displacement event and add to that the possible split too and it could be a January / winter to remember ❄️  I think kesha and pitbull sum up the future for the stratosphere / PV  nicely 

It's going down, I'm yelling timber

End of the night, it's going down
One more shot, another round
End of the night, it's going down 

We about to climb, wild, 'cause it's about to go down

and also an outside chance of something wintry / festive for Christmas  :santa-emoji:

 

 gens_panel_dmf8.thumb.png.cd60f84e1c4bda20796dd5b48c892268.png gens_panel_iqw9.thumb.png.e034ff4ff2039b786734780a537ca772.png

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
11 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

I’m waiting for the next frame to run for the ECM. Now I know that there is a 12 hr disparity for direct comparison with the previous run, but I see two areas of improvement already by T+72.... 

You can compare with the run from the say before 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I have been a bit disappointed with 24 hours worth of output inc the strat but whitney.........

gfsnh-10-384_cht6.png

 

This is what we want to see in the coming days.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have been a bit disappointed with 24 hours worth of output inc the strat but whitney.........

gfsnh-10-384_cht6.png

 

This is what we want to see in the coming days.

That looks very nice Feb

Less said about the GFS/GEFS this morning the better..

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I think we all expected the GFS (yesterday 12z) to backtrack viz developments around D10, ergo Greenland, as it has only small cluster support, and it was likely overdoing pattern changes as it does at that range. GEM keeps the wedge of heights but simply there is no cold to draw and we probably end milder than average (IMBY). ECM is consistently bad for cold.

Although the upstream pattern is not flat-flat, it might as well be, as any attempted ridge development just gets shoved east in the flow, helping with that fluid non-blocked upstream profile. The lack of any Pacific Wave strength is meaning that the trop PV although ripe for the taking instead can just meander around with little disturbance, still showing no sign of wanting to reform. Of course, this is also a negative for trop to strat would almost certainly be a precursor for a more potent SSW. 

All in all, we really do need the pattern to reset, or an early SSW, as the current repeating pattern hasn't worked so far this Winter, so I for one want rid ASAP. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...