The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[booferking]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

To be honest I dont think its about Greenland.. its more to do with energy coming out of the states..

It's a bit of both also is it the Gem that meant to be good around Greenland area thought i heard? 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, booferking said:

It's a bit of both also is it the Gem that meant to be good around Greenland area thought i heard? 

Not sure mate, its not often i can think of GEM outdoing ECM- perhaps the odd time..

[Mike Poole]

In the longer term it isn't about any of that, it is about the dove from above, the strat.

Trawling the GEFS 12z for possible split vortrex evolutions, and there were a few candidates, here:

The issue here is not the red high temperatures, but where the blues go, Is there evidence of a split? This may be a non question, because the Met Office update  wording suggests that they have taken a split  into account,  but we are only just seeing it, if there is to be a freezing January, we need to see much more of charts showing a strat split, and then annihilation...we will see them in the next few days I honestly expect!

Edited December 14, 2018 by Mike Poole

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Even the ecm evolution should eventually lead to HLB but possibly at the expense of Xmas cold. Day 10 on the ecm shows disruption taking place...

Edited December 14, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[ANYWEATHER]

A cold and festive  Gfs  at Christmas Eve , Ecm not so sure ..... ?

[SMU]

Evening- 

 

Maybe a longer post over the weekend should there be time - however worth noting that the UKMO 168 is on a par with the GFS rendering the ECM a probable outlier-

ECM hasnt particularly great lately with UKMO pretty solid & accurate on this latest cold spell...

S

[Bristawl Si]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

To be honest I dont think its about Greenland.. its more to do with energy coming out of the states..

Add in the Iberian High or is it the Azores High migrating north, or even a mid-Atlantic ridge - well, whatever anyone wants to label it - whilst it sits there and occasionally moves slightly further North it'll help deflect Atlantic lows and troughs through or over Blighty.

Dont forget the Spanish meto Winter forecast. At mo it is proving accurate for Iberia (early days i know).

On the other hand those with knowledge on here re Strat splits, SSW, etc have said patience will be rewarded and model output wont reflect Strat issues quite yet. If they are proved correct then chart output will, likely, flip in almost an instant one suspects.

[Singularity]

The big issue that divides ECM from GFS and UKMO is the extent to which the MJO movement through phases 4-5 flattens the Pacific pattern and whether it's enough to leave us looking to the next AAM surge in the final days of Dec instead of the current one for lagged impacts. 

The greater variability and less supported nature of the ECM run even among its own ensembles makes it the lower confidence outcome but sadly - if you're seeking a transition to cold weather as soon as possible - doesn't mean we can rule it out.

Worthy of note that even with the greater MJO interference, some amplification's still getting underway on the 10th day of the output. This suggests that not a lot of toning down of the MJO interference is needed to produce some more appealing charts. Interesting that this isn't about the amplitude of the MJO itself - rather how well the perturbations to the planetary wave train are able to propagate despite the opposing El Nino base state.

[carinthian]

9 hours ago, carinthian said:

24 hours on from yesterdays update (above post ) Basically no change in the output. UK will be back in cold by day 9. They think ECM will correct in its next run. Meanwhile , a bit cold on the mountain this morning, currently -10c in the location of the picture below.  Hope the weather turns seasonal for Christmas as I will be back in Blighty for a few days over the festive period before jetting off to Vancouver for a few weeks to see my new grandson.

C

Sort of half and delayed correction from ECM towards the other main models.  UKMO extended looks very close to GFS in North Atlantic chart  at 168t. Tomorrow may paint another picture.

C

[Mike Poole]

The way I look at it right now is that coldies have two big lottery tickets in a draw that only holds 2 and a bit outcomes,  I'll come to 'the bit' later!  

First ticket. Evolution of the current trop pattern to high lat blocking and cold, showing already on the models. 6z GFS, 12z GFS, FV3, GEM, etc.  

Second ticket.  Golden ticket.  The strat.  Technical SSW pretty much guaranteed by 29 Dec (displacement) then confidence building for another split SSW as early as first week of Jan - cue tropospheric mayhem, really likely to include the UK.

I said I'd come back to 'the bit' it's a note of caution that the UK is an island in an ocean just off a continent, and it is really hard to predict the long term weather for such a place!  Still, on this occasion, I'm as confident as I could possibly be now about a freezing January. 

[Summer Sun]

ECM mean supporting a cool down just before the 25th. How cold impossible to predict at this range.

 

[phil nw.]

A few posts have been hidden. Please keep discussion around the weather rather than any of the members. Apart from anything else it just takes the thread way off topic. 

Cheers guys

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks atlantic driven out to christmas eve with temperatures close to average but I've seen evidence today that the festive season could be more white than green so fingers crossed..it's all about luck and coldies deserve some don't they..I mean we!...

Edited December 14, 2018 by Frosty.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

To be honest I dont think its about Greenland.. its more to do with energy coming out of the states..

No it’s to do with the jetstream.....it can be fierce...but it’s about the track 

BFTP

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

I'm sorry for being off topic but I'm sure mods will forgive me for this one. Very sorry to hear you're missing your wife, this time of year can be especially hard and you can't just switch off that sort of emotion. That said, I always smile when I read your posts and I'm sure many others feel the same. All the best. It's always a pleasure having you around. 

We’ll definitely let you off with that. A very sweet post that I’m sure legritter will appreciate! 

With Christmas around the corner (sort of), probably no reason really for us hosts and mods to be too harsh. Posts like yours makes you realise what a great, caring, place this can be.

[Guest]

Oh bugger, just come to the realisation that ive moved in to the middle of nowhere and we dont have any lamp posts. crap what the heck am i gonna do? ive got an outside light but not so sure thats gonna cut the mustard.

[booferking]

Gfs 18z touch and go if it gets there this time..

[Ladyofthestorm]

I am concerned about the GFS operational run being a cold outlier. However,  It does look like the GEFS is trending colder too

 Do I let my heart rule my head and say GFS or do I go for the ECM???

[BlueHedgehog074]

23 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Oh bugger, just come to the realisation that ive moved in to the middle of nowhere and we dont have any lamp posts. crap what the heck am i gonna do? ive got an outside light but not so sure thats gonna cut the mustard.

Yeah, you may need one tomorrow with the rain, sleet and possible snow the models show.

Maybe might be worth looking up some lamp post makers within your area of Scotland, and contacting any within the closest proximity to you. Just then got to hope one of the makers will install a lamp post in time ready for the arrival of tomorrow’s wintry, stormy, weather.

Hope that’s of some help.

Edited December 14, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

I am concerned about the GFS operational run being a cold outlier. However,  It does look like the GEFS is trending colder too

 Do I let my heart rule my head and say GFS or do I go for the ECM???

Go for ECM. It will help avoid heartache in the morning lol.

[blizzard81]

Strange 18z GFS tonight. Iberian heights balloon.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Go for ECM. It will help avoid heartache in the morning lol.

I know..

 Lol.. right stronger Jetstream at T192, but still very kinked. What's coming out of the USA is not as potent. 

 

 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

I know..

 Lol.. right stronger Jetstream at T192, but still very kinked. What's coming out of the USA is not as potent. 

 

 

The models are desperately trying to find their way upon the onset of the strat warming so I expect all operational runs to be even more volatile than usual over the next couple of days.

[booferking]

3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

This is exactly the pattern that the EC clusters have been hinting at for a while (with a sprinkling of my own logical interpretation ).

We're now into the "will there be a white Christmas or not" territory, and for once, we are in the game (imo). 

My main concern is the EC op persisting with heights to the east. Good heights east + rising heights west = possibility of being stuck on the wrong side of the trough in the middle. 

Or, dare I dream, could the two areas of heights link over the top to the north, sinking our trough into Europe? That would be the jackpot. 

I have this feeling that model watching will be quite exciting in the next 72 hours!

And the nightmare of heights west and east with  us in no man's land comes to fruitation. 18z

[That ECM]

When you see output that over our area of the world looks different from one run to another it’s difficult to have much faith in the outcome but if we are looking for themes then I would say look where the PV is and look at blocking been shown all be it in various locations. Detail is going to be impossible at this stage imo but certainly enough to keep us very interested.