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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Ed whats lbc ??? tia

Leading Britains Conversation radio station I believe?

Fairly reliable station from what I know.

Edited by P-M
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Ed whats lbc ??? tia

London-based national phone-in and talk radio station it's online and on DAB radio 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A Met Office spokesperson was on LBC, this morning, saying that all the signals are indicative of severe winter weather, come January!:santa-emoji:

In the mean time, just watch, as the models slowly-but-surely come into line...?:cold:

Yep i heard that too.   Looking very good for a cold spell right in the heart of winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Ed whats lbc ??? tia

It's a London-based independent radio station. If you have DAB, it should be programmed in...

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed...

American models look festive for crimbo but Euros much flatter..

Hoping GFS can trump the Euros on this occassion, perhaps the outsider but one never knows..

Yes let’s hope GFS comes out on top for once . But it’s always the same when one model shows the goods and the others don’t ,  it’s the crappy runs that are right and that’s the ECM at present . 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes let’s hope GFS comes out on top for once . But it’s always the same when one model shows the goods and the others don’t ,  it’s the crappy runs that are right and that’s the ECM at present . 

I don't know, IC - the GFS Para has been pretty spot-on with today's light snow showers...?

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Big difference emerging between the American models and ECM  as early as 168t. Maybe a matter of timing, but ECM/ possibly UKMO going the ECM route this morning, building heights across South Britain as opposite to the  f GFS ops which is backed by its mean. Possible UKMO extended at 168t may give us a clue but changes again this morning. At least the GFS has been consistent with its out puts for the past few days. Uncertainty rules this morning but basically not looking as good  for our hunt for cold as we need to see cross model agreement to drop that low into Europe and build heights in its wake.

C

Looks like UKMO extension is a half way house between GFS and ECM. Often this is the case. However, I think there is more indication of trough disruption at 168t on the UKMO on the North Atlantic chart. No doubt it will all change again on the 12z run . It has to be noted that the American Models have stayed firm with its out -puts for a few days now but that's not to say it will be the outcome. I will get back with a updated view from over here. Meanwhile, light snowfall continues with temp of -8c now in the village and -11c on the berg. Just hope that ECM ops run does not verify as current our ski-ing conditions are just perfect for the Christmas visitors.

 

C

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
14 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

They've been pretty much right throughout all of 2018 to my recollection.  The thing is they resolve part of the uncertainty of the longer range but not all of it, by any means, and of course don't claim to either. Which leaves them open to criticism from those who understand the science behind them poorly, when a different solution verifies.

For Spring/Summer yes, but when you have an unprecedented whopping high pressure firmly in situ for weeks on end, then it's not difficult to deduce the weather. However, "they" have been poor from mid November onwards, when if you remember about a month ago, some were talking about the high liklhood of a Nov/Dec 2010. Instead we had weeks of rain in a very mobile pattern. 

I never like the term anyway, as depending on your desired outcome, unless there is continuous, unwavering universal agreement from all the models the "signals" are really only weather wish list items; you can equally find a strong mobile pattern or the mutha of all blocking highs. Again, it's just speculative speculation. 

Hunches aside, things don't look overly mild or overly cold. As long as the roads are clear for Christmas then I'll be happy for a bright and green one. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
19 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Hi Daniel

is this the run that only select view can see?? How come you have access if so if you don’t mind me asking?

cheers

It is - There are various different sites in which you can subscribe to which include the EC46, weatherbell and weathermodels.com are probably the two of the more popular ones. 

ECM Op is an outlier, so that's something..

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

Okay so its the Gfs Gem v Ukmo Ecm the latter the worst but if we want to use trends the Ecm is moving slowly to the Gfs in its last run when you compare the two charts below upstream from the 12z..

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-144 (1).gif

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
8 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

about a month ago, some were talking about the high liklhood of a Nov/Dec 2010. Instead we had weeks of rain in a very mobile pattern. 

Your profile doesn't list a location - are you in a monsoon part of the world? ... because that sure doesn't sound like anywhere in the uk!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

A very mobile pattern ?? That’s definitely not been the case has it ? Stop making stuff up .

Indeed, Ice: when I think of a 'mobile weather pattern', I imagine depression after depression crashing through the UK...This pattern, on the other hand, looks more like one, huge low being pinioned from all sides; it barely moves at all!

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Interesting changes over Greenland in this run compared to 00z.

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-174.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

It would be good for just once, that the GFS calls it right. I think the one thing that the GFS is actually decent at is modelling Greenland height rises.

Yes I heard this over the last few years that the GFS is better over the Greenland area and the euros around Scandinavia ? Don’t no if it is actually the case tho ? Let’s hope so . 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

It would be good for just once, that the GFS calls it right. I think the one thing that the GFS is actually decent at is modelling Greenland height rises.

Was just bout to say pretty much the same thing!probably go back to square one on the 12z and if not then probably tomorrow lol!!

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