Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Big difference emerging between the American models and ECM  as early as 168t. Maybe a matter of timing, but ECM/ possibly UKMO going the ECM route this morning, building heights across South Britain as opposite to the opposite from GFS ops which is backed by its mean. Possible UKMO extended at 168t may give us a clue but changes again this morning. At least the GFS has been consistent with its out puts for the past few days. Uncertainty rules this morning but basically not looking as good  for our hunt for cold as we need to see cross model agreement to drop that low into Europe and build heights in its wake.

C

Fingers crossed GFS is closer to the mark as EC is much flatter and less appealing to coldies..

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fingers crossed GFS is closer to the mark as EC is much flatter and less appealing to coldies..

Yes, ECM in its scrooge mood this morning. Not much festive cheer across Euroland with this run with tropical drift into Austria for Christmas Eve. Drip,drip I hear.

C

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

It will certainly feel bitterly cold tomorrow what with the wind chill and gales..

920709456_viewimage(13).thumb.png.7cc5c832628be0c26801a097f5f7c3cc.png1923975849_viewimage(12).thumb.png.569d405f2257858af4a5974bc32fad92.png295914193_viewimage(11).thumb.png.778ea46c816993fb16a5763003eb87ae.png

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

Most of the output this morning looks rather flat post day 5 and a little run of the mill. Probably a good sign that a major pattern change is on the way

70552E3F-667C-4DAE-B551-FA896EE60EF3.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fingers crossed GFS is closer to the mark as EC is much flatter and less appealing to coldies..

It's dreadful, and even has the trop PV moving to Greenland at the end. Hopefully its an outlier.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's dreadful, and even has the trop PV moving to Greenland at the end. Hopefully its an outlier.

Have a little more faith. I hear the background signals are excellent. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
7 minutes ago, draztik said:

Have a little more faith. I hear the background signals are excellent. 

I fully expect things to turn much colder, but I'm thinking into the New Year.

GFS appears to fast for me at bringning the cold stuff in.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Looks to me that the models are in a conflicted state for the 4-10 day range caused by them slowing the MJO down a lot across Indonesia which promotes a flatter Atlantic pattern at the same time that the big EAMT and shifting of the stratospheric vortex toward Eurasia favours a more amplified one.

Hopefully the long-held expectation that the MJO will propagate more readily our across the Pacific will bear fruit.

 

Longer-term, GFS still managing to work toward a sensible idea from around day 8 before the negative AAM bias leads it to change track again too soon, while ECM just seems completely hopeless. It has the slowest MJO prediction of all so this may be why.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
16 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I wasn't expecting great things from the ECM tjhis morning and in that respect it didn't disappoint at least. However, it is on the right page at D10. Yes, I know D10, but there are absolutely no expectations of anything in the next 7 days.

D7-D10 will be a bonus.

D10+ will be about the point and time where I think the pattern change will start to occur, with energy driving SE again into Europe.

In that respect, I will happily take the day 10 chart from the ECM this morning

ECMOPNH00_240_1.thumb.png.f5e41c8e5562f4f85652f94feb2c6265.png

 

Which actually is along the same lines as the GFS mean...

GFSAVGNH00_240_1.thumb.png.24a4e9f327a536157885f87dc4860a44.png

 

Higher up, it looks like the EC may've over-egg'ed U winds for that timeframe as well...

Yesterday D10

1312-ecmwfzm_u_f240.thumb.gif.47d9a2ae20da0b8e3080542121817e76.gif

 

Compared to today's D9...

1412-ecmwfzm_u_f216.thumb.gif.df22bda426d1d163487d3bb25ba94aeb.gif

Leading to...

1412-ecmwfzm_u_f240.thumb.gif.96a31ca57cc3975102123d4fa52c2f49.gif

 

fluxes.thumb.gif.cf709f7d2c15bf79ab1e52875cf9e43d.gif

 

Eye candy FI charts are surely on the way

I would agree very much with all of the above S4L. Nothing of a proper wintry nature is expected in the next 8-10 days anyway so not much point looking within that timeframe. 

We just have to get through our usual prechristmas return to mildish stuff. The good thing this time round is that rather than lasting through into January. All the signs are that a change back to cold and wintry is in the offing. Developing between Xmas and new year and tightening its grip into January. 

I would expect to see some pretty spectacular mid range charts starting to appear as we head through next week.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has high-pressure building to our south leaving the UK in a reasonably mild set-up

ukm2.2018122100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.a376ee54872f7b1fc77d34e08847de90.png

That's following this mornings ecm then !!

Edited by swfc
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

so it looks like the ukmo at 168 is following the ecm output. Which looks like the gfs is been to quick at bringing in the cold .The ec46 does look good for jan onwards though.So lots to look forward to jan onwards i feel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
36 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Just seen the EC46 run.. wow. 

If it's cold/blocked weather you like, early January is looking incredible. In fact, pretty much the entirety of January looks good! 

Hi Daniel

is this the run that only select view can see?? How come you have access if so if you don’t mind me asking?

cheers

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, terrier said:

so it looks like the ukmo at 168 is following the ecm output. Which looks like the gfs is been to quick at bringing in the cold .The ec46 does look good for jan onwards though.So lots to look forward to jan onwards i feel.

Agreed...

American models look festive for crimbo but Euros much flatter..

Hoping GFS can trump the Euros on this occassion, perhaps the outsider but one never knows..

Edited by northwestsnow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
5 minutes ago, P-M said:

One post saying great one saying mild #confused.com

@Summer Sun is talking about day 7 looking mild . @Daniel Smith post is the EC 46 dayer forecast and is looking very good for the end of the month and especially January . Hope that helps . 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A Met Office spokesperson was on LBC, this morning, saying that all the signals are indicative of severe winter weather, come January!:santa-emoji:

In the mean time, just watch, as the models slowly-but-surely come into line...?:cold:

Ed whats lbc ??? tia

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

@Summer Sun is talking about day 7 looking mild . @Daniel Smith post is the EC 46 dayer forecast and is looking very good for the end of the month and especially January . Hope that helps . 

Cheers IC 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...