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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Seeing the global ec46 shows it headed close to the WeatherBell winter anomoly forecast by week 6 - the 00z eps were further north than the 12z with the pattern so perhaps weeks. 3 and 4 could be suppressed a bit more than the model shows which could mean the storm track by week 6 is a little south of where it shows 

WeatherBell DJF anom9ly

0ABE5FBE-C246-4120-AC34-93F5203E2D04.thumb.jpeg.ab06721bea992387e458770ebb61d897.jpeg

That's a very post split vortex looking anomaly chart....

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Oh you tease ECM - so many routes to cold on these charts, and yet the risk that the UK gets stuck between ridges too

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121312_216.

but that control run looks ready to explode with cold, doesn't it - ridging from Scandi back into the N Atlantic! 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

a few interesting charts within the 18z GEFS and also from one of the latest cfs runs hinting at heights redeveloping over scandi and possibly giving us the easterly that is being hinted at for January  ❄️ 

tempresult_doy9.thumb.gif.f5c49234175761e2045220cad4ddcc4d.gif

tempresult_kao6.thumb.gif.9511ea212f7cd2ccf75cb055152a4ba3.gif

tempresult_cnh2.thumb.gif.0d998ceab70a8ef3f5cc4183415ba457.gif

tempresult_xjf2.thumb.gif.04a8542293d35205914b07c509b05190.gif

tempresult_uhl3.thumb.gif.c55f66a26397b4fb57f79b4da5af5e44.gif

beastintheeast.thumb.jpg.ba58db057ec20d976b4da7bf9eb9ca63.jpgmaxresdefault.thumb.jpg.e9e16948204a90dba36d9a73a64037d2.jpg 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

The GFS 18's does look like a realistic possibility. Hopefully this trend will continue and gain more support. Snow for some over the Christmas period is a distinct possibility.

On 03/12/2018 at 20:21, northwestsnow said:

Not sure about that shaky..

UKMO/EC were both very nice this morning..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Looking at this on Saturday from basically all the short ranges, either they all have the 850hpa wrong or it’s freezing rain. Very confusing... maybe an expert can give insight on this. It can’t possibly snow above 0c at 5000ft, so this is highly confusing 

098A05A4-9C39-408A-8815-C99D8670AC29.png

EFC51791-2B67-4D28-A310-8A1B2B5C395F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL

my guess depending on timing, is initial sleet snow , turning to rain, maybe some freezing rain for Scotland depending on the timing of the front reaching there. A prime place for this to happen would probably be somewhere like Aviemore

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
2 hours ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Looking at this on Saturday from basically all the short ranges, either they all have the 850hpa wrong or it’s freezing rain. Very confusing... maybe an expert can give insight on this. It can’t possibly snow above 0c at 5000ft, so this is highly confusing 

098A05A4-9C39-408A-8815-C99D8670AC29.png

EFC51791-2B67-4D28-A310-8A1B2B5C395F.png

Yeah, don’t think snow is possible with above 0*C 850 hPa temperatures (at least not on low ground). ‘‘Tis strange some of the models show snow over some areas with those positive 850 hPa temperatures. Be nice to think they’re over-estimating the mildness of the 850 hPa temperatures and that you, me, and others on here could end up with a longer spell of snow on Saturday! ❄️

But I suppose one aspect could just be to do with the height!

Edit: Then again, what @BlackburnChris mentioned about the timing of it all could be the reason too. I know I can be guilty of taking those precipitation type charts seriously. Sometimes, they’re unlikely to be an accurate representation of the amount and type of precipitation we get. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Correcting some typing mistakes. Guess that what happens when posting very late at night and there’s nothing, (or no one), to distract you, lol ?
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Gfs 0z still very intresting as we get towards the big day builds significant block towards Greenland. We just need some cold uppers to tap into but after a few days of Atlantic driven weather it looks like colder air will make a return.

 

npsh500(3).thumb.png.16687654ba16defab79e05d605cf5b71.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Just now, Dave Kightley said:
11 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS 00Z will be amazing!

Not far off up to 220 hours 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

It is a Xmas toppler from GFS 00z so  cold on the big day but no fireworks

gfsnh-0-276.png

UKMO has a stronger block t the E than GFS at 144 and although looks a little less amplified in the Atlantic has some promise of an Easterly down the line.

UN144-21.GIF

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It is a Xmas toppler from GFS 00z so  cold on the big day but no fireworks

gfsnh-0-276.png

I'm sure that ridge would of been up there for about 2 or 3 days by that point..

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It is a Xmas toppler from GFS 00z so  cold on the big day but no fireworks

gfsnh-0-276.png

Its toying with the idea though. Thats a few runs now wich build hieghts its just going to be where the ridge sets up shop

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
8 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Its toying with the idea though. Thats a few runs now wich build hieghts its just going to be where the ridge sets up shop

Yeah just need a little less upstream energy but UKMO is actually more progressive in that respect with the saving grace it has stronger block to the E so even a ridge toppling toward Scandi and reinforcing the block could give an Easterly down the line.

Ifs and buts though good to see blocking around in the run up to Xmas. Hopefully it will be seasonable at least if not white.

Better chances than the average year of a white Xmas  based on current output.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

UKMO and GFS are both quite different over Scandinavia at 144h but both are quite good runs especially GFS..h850t850eu.png

That GFS prectypeuktopo.png

Christmas Eve looks white.northern Britain

 

Christmas Day looks white for many Coastal regions

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
8 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks bitter - thats how Warsaw should be late December ..

Even better, those temps are a bit below average :santa-emoji: And I think the output is headed in the right direction for everyone to share in the fun. 

UE144-21 (6).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Not sure what to make of the 00Z runs so far..

GFS looks cold around christmas so that gets the thumbs up from me..

UKMO has a better profile to the NE but as mucka said, looks a little flatter in the Atlantic..

Difficult to know how the 168 would look..

GEM probably closer to GFS at 144 and goes and to produce a decent day 10 chart..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure what to make of the 00Z runs so far..

GFS looks cold around christmas so that gets the thumbs up from me..

UKMO has a better profile to the NE but as mucka said, looks a little flatter in the Atlantic..

Difficult to know how the 168 would look..

GEM probably closer to GFS at 144 and goes and to produce a decent day 10 chart..

I know what I think of them but can't repeat it on here lol. Much flatter runs. The ecm looks dreadful. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure what to make of the 00Z runs so far..

 

You should have just left it there !

each op run seems to have a different theme in the day 5 thru 8 range which trends towards something consistent on gfs around Xmas but not clear on the other models 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, bluearmy said:

You should have just left it there !

each op run seems to have a different theme in the day 5 thru 8 range which trends towards something consistent on gfs around Xmas but not clear on the other models 

Haha true !

EC det not nice viewing tho.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure what to make of the 00Z runs so far..

GFS looks cold around christmas so that gets the thumbs up from me..

UKMO has a better profile to the NE but as mucka said, looks a little flatter in the Atlantic..

Difficult to know how the 168 would look..

GEM probably closer to GFS at 144 and goes and to produce a decent day 10 chart..

Big difference emerging between the American models and ECM  as early as 168t. Maybe a matter of timing, but ECM/ possibly UKMO going the ECM route this morning, building heights across South Britain as opposite to the  f GFS ops which is backed by its mean. Possible UKMO extended at 168t may give us a clue but changes again this morning. At least the GFS has been consistent with its out puts for the past few days. Uncertainty rules this morning but basically not looking as good  for our hunt for cold as we need to see cross model agreement to drop that low into Europe and build heights in its wake.

C

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

The ECM is really flailing about in its later stages run to run. Seems to alternate cold to mild last few days. 

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