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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted
19 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

A bit of an improvement with the GFS?

18_39_preciptype.png

You will be sorely dissapointed 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted

Happy with the ec46 update - high heights and slp to the northeast edging from scandi to Greenland weeks 3 through 6 with the storm  track into Europe to our south - possibly edging a little too far north for comfort later on but we will take that for a third consecutive good run 

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Coopsy Accomplished

Coopsy

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Posted
11 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

You will be sorely dissapointed 

Not if their expectations are different to yours. Disappointment is subjective - and you’re assuming you're correct before the event has even happened. 

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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This is tenuous at best, but GFS 18z could possibly give some overnight snow Saturday morning for the southeast

image.thumb.jpg.49d73ab32817b97e8e117da918b67668.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.56e5ef41944bcd011e71c3c3e7685b2f.jpg

Marginal is putting it mildly!

Latest HIRLAM now pushing this to the eastern side only:

image.thumb.jpg.cdd0c7b772269257144a76ffe4f474fd.jpg

Edit, this part of the run was a genuine surprise, T48,  with the snow in northwest areas later.

image.thumb.jpg.71384ef4d9c84ae99fda0f2bcb0530dd.jpg

Is it most likely due to the intensity of precipitation?

Edited by AppleUK 123
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Happy with the ec46 update - high heights and slp to the northeast edging from scandi to Greenland weeks 3 through 6 with the storm  track into Europe to our south - possibly edging a little too far north for comfort later on but we will take that for a third consecutive good run 

And that's from this morning's run. The 12z run ramps things up further so these synoptics could come a little sooner maybe. 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Interesting re the 18z.  I haven’t been and don’t buy the earlier runs of the earlier disrupting LP and rapid build of heights.....too soon for me.  18z at t192 heading more towards what I think will pan out...my opinion of cse but let’s see what develops.....

 

BFTP

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

18z has some potential by 192 with some seriously cold air coming into play to our north 

What the -24s 1000 miles north, can't see anything else?  GFS T198

image.thumb.jpg.fe4e463c3411d9fba0baffbebb868f26.jpg

Like to see you put an argument forward that can't go wrong that gets that air here!  Nice thought though.

Edited by Mike Poole
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beefy201 Enthusiast

beefy201

Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
Posted

My personal un- educated view there’re  a few hot spots that might get some surprise snow falls this weekend ❄️ ❄️ 

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Definate trends towards something colder from the NW as we approach christmas - thanks to greater amplification in the atlantic flow, and the suggestion of heights remaining stubbornly high to our east - and continuing to want to ridge back west. Next week still up in the air, from a detail perspective, yes generally unsettled but apart from a bit of tropical maritime air on Tuesday, it doesn't look especially mild, with the threat of cold air from the north ready to pounce at anytime - wouldn't it be good if it did so on christmas eve, alas may take a couple of efforts, but further wintry precipitation in the north certainly not out of the question before christmas. I'll be back on Monday when signals for christmas will start to become that bit more clearer..

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What the -24s 1000 miles north, can't see anything else?  GFS T198

image.thumb.jpg.fe4e463c3411d9fba0baffbebb868f26.jpg

Like to see you put an argument forward that gets that air here!

How about this? 

gfsnh-0-216.png

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

Again. I'm struck by the bullishness of the strong height anomalies as far out as weeks 5-6 on the EC weeklies update this evening, normally you'd expect the anomalies to be muted at that range, a strong signal for low heights to the south and blocking to the north in January.

Week 4                                                     Week 5                                                   Week 6

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018121300_0768.thumb.png.952809ea76f13122f5a6009060efc75d.pngec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018121300_0936.thumb.png.44c4eeca3ac039808eb7144c4f830113.pngec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018121300_1104.thumb.png.9380abd17221c998a4bbccd0eb7bc515.png

 

Closer in time, a colder theme developing from the models just before Xmas - as troughing drops into Europe and the flow amplifies upstream, perhaps initially cold from the north, before an easterly. Both the H500/anomaly charts below hint at this

814day_03.thumb.gif.02a8b4cce811aeb6d54b2e7f3449c5c3.gifgfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45.thumb.png.98b712dbfd8da7b7622bfb526c1cd51d.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

18z has some potential by 192 with some seriously cold air coming into play to our north 

GFS is sniffing something out - thats a cold trough dropping down towards Scotland at 222.

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John Badrick Enthusiast

John Badrick

Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude
Posted
45 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Was crazy! Weirded my dog, i mean the kids dog right out!

1000 yards from the sea nearly 25cm snow followed by freezing rain = chaos on the south coast!

1F1A5C7A-5D2A-4B13-A004-60C6A5D5F4BE.thumb.jpeg.f76e82d4c471460e5a3f34c6da774314.jpeg059EC146-1B19-435E-B5CE-1254CB1FEA17.thumb.jpeg.a5f413c0e7c2dd279a904b5dabc1e0f2.jpeg

dont think anything like that is on the cards at all! Northern parts look like seeing a good few hours of snow Saturday! Good luck you to ya, I’ll be getting about 2” of rain

 

They were crazy times, these were taken in Cornwall in March this year, this was the road leading down to the beach with 6ft snow drifts 

FB_IMG_1544740486053.jpg

FB_IMG_1544740492492.jpg

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

That is some serious WAA off the west coast of Greenland here's hoping the high pressure in the Atlantic joins with that in Greenland. Strengthened to a 1040mb high now.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Now this does look interesting as we're closing on Christmas, GFS 18z setting up a northerly properly...T240:

image.thumb.jpg.becefd53b91577c6fc5b6f0c05ce6b3d.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
Just now, Rocheydub said:

Is this an instantaneous reaction to the SSW?

 

Or a GFS brain fart!

It’s not the former as it isn’t going to happen until after Boxing Day .......... if it happens ......

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