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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Saturday potential just into view on the Netweather favourite, HIRLAM 12z at T48:

image.thumb.jpg.1c4fd178a94871fb68bbe1562c70e82a.jpg

Interesting given that's lunchtime, will be watching the next few runs...

On the subject of the shorter range models, my experience since we now have a fair few to choose from is that the HIRLAM, ARPEGE and AROME are decent.  The ICON-EU was poor in the Feb-Mar episode, failing to pick up convective snow that was actually happening! Note, different to the ICON global model which is pretty good.

Yep posted on page 294, Mike which gave me the incentive to delve further. Really looking forward to tomorrows efforts, down to the wire for my sleet...

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
1 hour ago, Devonshire said:

I am not sure how you know how his opinions are changing (psychic?)!

What? 

Who said anything about changing? @Shaftesbury Snow Just mentioned opinion, end of January  being better chance of cold.  

Was merely pointing out that the opinion gains strength 17 days on, seen as we are 2/3 weeks from January with no cold in reliable sight. 

Edited by Ben Lewis
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

For the next few weeks I'm not too bothered about having really cold uppers at the moment. As long as we can have high pressure over us/nearby then the surface will naturally cool at this time of year and would expect the cold pool to grow over continental Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The extended eps are dropping the low anomaly into Europe with higher ones appearing above ..... with the Atlantic jet remaining active we would presumably tend towards slider territory .....

 

Im just starting to get the feeling things are happening..

Zonal winds dropping off might start having an influence longer term..

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I 'd  be happy with that Fred

cold foggy/frosty christmas eve ..

The Baltics look very cold with a pocket of -12 uppers on the 23rd..

They'll be positively... Baltic?  Just for fun at this range but these are ECM surface temps for Warsaw based on the latest run. 

IMG_20181213_220101.jpg

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

Did anyone see Judah Cohen's post on twitter? I'm no expert but it reinforces the idea that a SSW and vortex displacement doesn't always bring the goods for us.

Screenshot_20181213_210151.jpg

IMG_20181213_205834.jpg

Edited by Sperrin
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Seasonality said:

They'll be positively... Baltic?  Just for fun at this range but these are ECM surface temps for Warsaw based on the latest run. 

IMG_20181213_220101.jpg

Looks bitter - thats how Warsaw should be late December ..

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated ICON 18z has 3 hours of snow in the SE sat AM... 

Thats all high res models with snow in the SE now...

Phew thought you had given up the chase, Steve!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated ICON 18z has 3 hours of snow in the SE sat AM... 

Thats all high res models with snow in the SE now...

I Still think this can upgrade a bit more steve!!arpege the best so far!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated ICON 18z has 3 hours of snow in the SE sat AM... 

Thats all high res models with snow in the SE now...

someone should tell the telly !

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

someone should tell the telly !

Please tell me this is a joke 

Comment you replied to I mean 

Edited by John Hodgson
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening , A big bang from the Atlantic  from Saturday  onwards but it runs out of steam by Christmas. ..

ecmt850.240-3.png

h850t850eu-13.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

Shouldn't we be concerned of the freezing rain as it be can be very dangerous?

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Selected parts of the SE, maybe..

winteroverview_20181213_18_042.thumb.jpg.668246750ab7190d8faa0e7080a160d3.jpg

 

Edited by AppleUK 123
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Selected parts of the SE, maybe..

winteroverview_20181213_18_042.thumb.jpg.668246750ab7190d8faa0e7080a160d3.jpg

Mapantz, you have NW Essex, how much do I owe you? 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Shouldn't we be concerend of the freezing rain as it be can be very dangerous?

Possibly. I can't remember what the charts showed back in February, so I can't comment on whether they correctly picked it up or not. But, the freezing rain here was unbelievable! One of the weirdest weather phenomenon I have witnessed.

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Mapantz, you have NW Essex, how much do I owe you? 

I'll invoice you at the end of the year. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Just now, Mapantz said:

Possibly. I can't remember what the charts showed back in February, so I can't comment on whether they correctly picked it up or not. But, the freezing rain here was unbelievable! One of the weirdest weather phenomenon I have witnessed.

I'll invoice you at the end of the year. 

Lol, I was only referring to that little grey straw just sneeking out of the orange so hopefully we can waive the bill 

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, Mapantz said:

Possibly. I can't remember what the charts showed back in February, so I can't comment on whether they correctly picked it up or not. But, the freezing rain here was unbelievable! One of the weirdest weather phenomenon I have witnessed.

I'll invoice you at the end of the year. 

Thank you yes, I do remember last year experiencing some freezing rain but it was temporary and at night whereas this is forecast to be during the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Selected parts of the SE, maybe..

winteroverview_20181213_18_042.thumb.jpg.668246750ab7190d8faa0e7080a160d3.jpg

Take that to the bank please.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

A bit of an improvement with the GFS?

18_39_preciptype.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

This is tenuous at best, but GFS 18z could possibly give some overnight snow Saturday morning for the southeast

image.thumb.jpg.49d73ab32817b97e8e117da918b67668.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.56e5ef41944bcd011e71c3c3e7685b2f.jpg

Marginal is putting it mildly!

Latest HIRLAM now pushing this to the eastern side only:

image.thumb.jpg.cdd0c7b772269257144a76ffe4f474fd.jpg

Edit, this part of the run was a genuine surprise, T48,  with the snow in northwest areas later.

image.thumb.jpg.71384ef4d9c84ae99fda0f2bcb0530dd.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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