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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
10 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

17 days on and your opinion looks to be gathering strength 

I am not sure how you know how his opinions are changing (psychic?)!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

will take frost and fog if we cant have snow

Not for Xmas! I want snow, on Xmas day if no snow, it may as well be mild, white Xmas is looking very unlikely this year, going by GFS anyway, virtually all model runs shown a green Xmas for many, 

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
24 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Thanks for the post David,very interesting read,shame people have to quote your post afterwards ,who are obviously on the wind up as they have hardly posted here before !

 

I certainly wasn't one - I genuinely didn't realise and mine posted twice but definitely wasn't on purpose. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not for Xmas! I want snow, on Xmas day if no snow, it may as well be mild, white Xmas is looking very unlikely this year, going by GFS anyway, virtually all model runs shown a green Xmas for many, 

Each to their own - 

Personally i would prefer  cold foggy christmas

(Snow preferable of course).

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border

My hunt for the cold is over - it's ruddy freezing out there! I am supposed to be off out watching the Geminids tonight and current temp reads 2.6C, (apparent temps 0.3C). North Hants. It feels positively Arctic.  

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I 'd  be happy with that Fred

cold foggy/frosty christmas eve ..

The Baltics look very cold with a pocket of -12 uppers on the 23rd..

I’ll settle for that any Xmas....beautiful chart mate ??....indeed very cold in sheltered spots to the west 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Had a quick look at the dew points for Saturday via the Euro 4. Certainly cold enough air about at midday Sat. 

dew Sat.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Stuie W said:

Had a quick look at the dew points for Saturday via the Euro 4. Certainly cold enough air about at midday Sat. 

dew Sat.JPG

Good spot stu

I looked at EC and it doesnt look as good , uppers wise.

To add to that METO raw is miles different to BBC raw for my location saturday.

Not sure what to believe ..

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Good spot stu

I looked at EC and it doesnt look as good , uppers wise.

To add to that METO raw is miles different to BBC raw for my location saturday.

Not sure what to believe ..

Cheers mate. I am in the if the dew points are there the uppers don`t matter too much camp.   Yes my straws are out but all may not be as it seems...

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

interesting that we will have see two of these within a couple weeks of each other and precious little wintry conditions as a consequence 

Yes, absolutely, I wonder if given the time of year this a legacy of the hot north hemisphere summer.  

Those predicting a front loaded winter, and I was one, look wrong (although no one has ever defined what a front loaded winter actually is - I would propose a definition of a significant cold spell before Christmas?)

Given the disturbed nature of the trop vortex thus far, two options spring to mind, one we were just unlucky and in the wrong place wrt blocking, or two, there's too much heat still lying around, and given chances have been scuppered by the jet stream suddenly powering up locally (not raging jet for days on end), perhaps SSTs responsible. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

EURO4 snow accumulation charts for Saturday are rather telling

SNOW.thumb.gif.5bb4060c2c2e4e69caa63d457240ed8f.gif

Excellent for North of England northwards- and i'm happy to see more snow will live up to his username

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

EURO4 snow accumulation charts for Saturday are rather telling

SNOW.thumb.gif.5bb4060c2c2e4e69caa63d457240ed8f.gif

Can we shake on freezing rain then? Certainly not what I am after but unless the dew points rise something has to give.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
32 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

17 days on and your opinion looks to be gathering strength 

Transient snow for most northern areas of England and Scotland Saturday before temps rocket back up to close double figures,  but apart from that no real cold in the reliable, but perhaps January can deliver, the beginning rather than the end 

I'd say average rather than mild:MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

PLenty of colder options, but no serious cold in the immediate and reliable future beyond the weekend event.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Sorry folks only posting what I see. the GFSP for Sat evening. Those that see my posts recently have only ever been about trying to catch some of the white stuff out of this week and after Sat there will be no more immediate posts about it. What I have found fascinating about this week is how tricky something can be to forecast at a short timescale, yep will probably have egg on my face but I`m only looking at the charts.

 

gfs-16-54.png

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1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Sorry folks only posting what I see. the GFSP for Sat evening. Those that see my posts recently have only ever been about trying to catch some of the white stuff out of this week and after Sat there will be no more immediate posts about it. What I have found fascinating about this week is how tricky something can be to forecast at a short timescale, yep will probably have egg on my face but I`m only looking at the charts.

 

gfs-16-54.png

ohh that lovely orange bit sat right above me house...

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

ohh that lovely orange bit sat right above me house...

For a minute I thought you lived in Norway...

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Just now, Stuie W said:

For a minute I thought you lived in Norway...

Nope just under the orange bit in Scotland.. the next plan for the MS family is a move to Scandy in a few years time tho. just need that lotto win to come in and then we are off. some would head to spain to enjoy the warm sun but not me into the Arctic circle  we would go...

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Nope just under the orange bit in Scotland.. the next plan for the MS family is a move to Scandy in a few years time tho. just need that lotto win to come in and then we are off. some would head to spain to enjoy the warm sun but not me into the Arctic circle  we would go...

Well I am originally from Bo`ness West Lothian and Crieff was a lovely Sunday day out trip as a kid...

Right, looking at the ICON for Saturday, earlier delivery of the precipitation and awaiting the 15hr output which is running (never knew about a 15hr run etc).

See if it upgrades this:

 

iconeu-1-49-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Saturday potential just into view on the Netweather favourite, HIRLAM 12z at T48:

image.thumb.jpg.1c4fd178a94871fb68bbe1562c70e82a.jpg

Interesting given that's lunchtime, will be watching the next few runs...

On the subject of the shorter range models, my experience since we now have a fair few to choose from is that the HIRLAM, ARPEGE and AROME are decent.  The ICON-EU was poor in the Feb-Mar episode, failing to pick up convective snow that was actually happening! Note, it is a different model to the ICON global model which is pretty good.

Across all output, models and expert views and met office updates, that first snowflake seems closer tonight. ❄️

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Saturdays system becoming increasingly difficult to predict, going to be a case of nowcasting I think. Arpege for example brings more a more widespread risk into the midlands but the euro 4, ultimately, confines the snow north of the Humber, whatever happens we have our first “snow event” of the winter with plenty of interest Christmas onwards. Happy times for us coldies. Merry Christmas everyone!!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
13 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well I am originally from Bo`ness West Lothian and Crieff was a lovely Sunday day out trip as a kid...

Right, looking at the ICON for Saturday, earlier delivery of the precipitation and awaiting the 15hr output which is running (never knew about a 15hr run etc).

See if it upgrades this:

 

iconeu-1-49-0.png

15 hour output only cos to 30 hours but as far as i can see the precipitation is pushed back slightly further west and also the high is stronger from the east!!18z shall reveal all

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