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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Overall, a lot to follow, a lot of interest and perhaps the perfect set up for a great Xmas present for cold and snow hunters in Europe, the UK and eastern CONUS.  Things are looking really interesting for the run into the New Year and through at least the first half of January. David    

A fantastic and well explained post - thank you for sharing this I really enjoyed it.  I don't think I've ever wished Xmas to be here as quick, as much I have this year!

Edited by Mapantz
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coldie Enthusiast

coldie

Posted
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
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Posted (edited)

If you're going to reply to bb62-63 please don't quote the whole post! But as others have said a brilliant post yet again, makes everything a lot easier to understand.

Edited by coldie
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Rayth Community Regular

Rayth

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted

Once again @Bring Back1962-63 , thanks for taking the considerable time and effort to inform and educate people who are trying to learn , invaluable input as usual David  

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Find it laughable that people think dismissing scientific techniques of weather prediction and just making predictions based on a hunch is credible. Never mind that all the predictions linked to background signals have been right so far this winter. Makes you wonder why those people are even bothering to be on a thread like this.

But that’s just my opinion!

They've been pretty much right throughout all of 2018 to my recollection.  The thing is they resolve part of the uncertainty of the longer range but not all of it, by any means, and of course don't claim to either. Which leaves them open to criticism from those who understand the science behind them poorly, when a different solution verifies.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Overall, a lot to follow, a lot of interest and perhaps the perfect set up for a great Xmas present for cold and snow hunters in Europe, the UK and eastern CONUS.  Things are looking really interesting for the run into the New Year and through at least the first half of January. David    

Fantastic, fantastic post!!

Been following the discussions over on that American forum, spent probably hours reading through it and trying to take in as much as possible. For those who don't "believe in" "background signals" give this post a read, very informative.

Edited by Mapantz
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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
1 minute ago, coldie said:

If you're going to reply to bb63 please don't quote the whole post! 

A cracking post by 62/63 but painful scrolling  on your phone if people qoute it fully.

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Leon1 Seasoned

Leon1

Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Posted

Yes thank you for that wonderful post @Bring Back1962-63 !

It's not very funny guys that people keep quoting the whole post after people have asked for people not to. Nobody is finding it funny. 

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
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Posted

A tip for those who many not have seen it before.. you can select bits of someone's post and a 'quote' option will appear.

2018-12-13.thumb.png.693254318681290aff1800b358183719.png

It saves quoting monstrous posts and filling up a page. 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
Just now, Leon1 said:

Yes thank you for that wonderful post @Bring Back1962-63 !

It's not very funny guys that people keep quoting the whole post after people have asked for people not to. Nobody is finding it funny. 

I'm laughing.. 

Lots of models keeping us very much in "no mans land" in the extended with a very slack flow, wont be mild by any means but it does make it difficult to see a way forward.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A tip for those who many not have seen it before.. you can select bits of someone's post and a 'quote' option will appear.

2018-12-13.thumb.png.693254318681290aff1800b358183719.png

It saves quoting monstrous posts and filling up a page. 

And the other tip is touch the arrow in the original post and it disappears

725F1D0C-2483-4ECA-88A9-D140C71A88A5.png

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A tip for those who many not have seen it before.. you can select bits of someone's post and a 'quote' option will appear.

2018-12-13.thumb.png.693254318681290aff1800b358183719.png

It saves quoting monstrous posts and filling up a page. 

didnt know that. cheers

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Thanks for the post David,very interesting read,shame people have to quote your post afterwards ,who are obviously on the wind up as they have hardly posted here before !

 

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
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Posted

If you are going to post about posting about the posts that are posting about the bb62/63 post, please don't post that either.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
  • Popular Post
Posted

Right.. stop with the childish behaviour or you will find that you won't be able to post in here again.

Thank you.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

@Bring Back1962-63. David, you are a gentleman and a scholar. Thank you. And from a purely IMBY POV I love this day 10 ECM chart. 

ECE1-240 (2).gif

ECE0-240 (3).gif

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Ben Lewis Rising Star

Ben Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)
On 26/11/2018 at 16:18, Shaftesbury Snow said:

GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs

The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI 

17 days on and your opinion looks to be gathering strength 

Transient snow for most northern areas of England and Scotland Saturday before temps rocket back up to close double figures,  but apart from that no real cold in the reliable, but perhaps January can deliver, the beginning rather than the end 

Edited by Ben Lewis
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is an improvement on the 00z run IMHO-

Looks slack by day 10 fog and frost becoming noticeable i guess..

Look at the uppers.......not ‘I guess?’?...that is darn cold with heavy frost.

 

BFTP

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is an improvement on the 00z run IMHO-

Looks slack by day 10 fog and frost becoming noticeable i guess..

will take frost and fog if we cant have snow

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Look at the uppers.......not ‘I guess?’?...that is darn cold with heavy frost.

 

BFTP

I 'd  be happy with that Fred

cold foggy/frosty christmas eve ..

The Baltics look very cold with a pocket of -12 uppers on the 23rd..

Edited by northwestsnow
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