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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Icon already better at 120hrs on 12z.better waa  and ridging.hopefully a good sign for the rest of today

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Just now, frosty ground said:

icon-0-138.png?13-12icon-0-150.png

Here comes another Scandi high 12z vs 0z (ICON)

 

That's quite a dramatic turnaround there.

Hopefully it's not on it's own in the 12zs

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Posted
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
27 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Yes snow falling is a very different matter to it lying for any length of time. Surely it stands to reason that, given similar synoptics, that it is far more likely to lie when the sun is at its lowest, ie: December into January?

Yes John and also thinking that the sea around our shores is still what might be called warm. A few nice chilly winds are needed and then things become less marginal.

that said if we could get a truly icy blast from the East then the lake effect would be awesome - maybe that's what Met Office hint at for the New Year.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Will -8 to -9C uppers be enough to generate a few snow grains, come tomorrow afternoon? Any snow is better than no snow!:santa-emoji:

Netweather GFS Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Colder air already in the mix.

Could be interesting Saturday evening for a while

Screenshot_20181213-154859_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Will -8 to -9C uppers be enough to generate a few snow grains, come tomorrow afternoon? Any snow is better than no snow!

Netweather GFS Image

 

Definitely! It’s quite a slack flow but pressure isn’t particuarly high and SSTs are above average, I wouldn’t be surprised if London and surrounding areas sees first snow flurries of winter. 

754A2552-9E14-4FF5-BB25-FE80E8DD6D1B.thumb.png.4bc112b6f6ae14f6c11e582452e18563.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A wee word of advice, for newbies and lurkers - if I may:

Don't, whenever you see a large and deep depression (forecast to be slow-moving, west of the UK) write it off as 'the usual GFS bias'...as, more often than not, it isn't...?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

I like that chart

Me too, NWS...It looks like classic pre-pattern-change model-panic to me!:santa-emoji: Wha? Don't ask me - I'm only a model!

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Some bizzare..model interp in here today!!..

Anyway the gfs 12z..is a good run...and ups 2 better in the late-mid...latter stages.

Looking 4wards to the ecm 12z.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

GFS for next week is pretty much a wet one... Not overally mild but thoughs low pressure systems need to behave given the opportunity..

Edited by Dave Kightley
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2 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

GFS for next week is pretty much a wet one... Not overally mild but thoughs low pressure systems need to behave given the opportunity..

I guess with that low spinning around over us for a few days with not cold but cooler uppers not the mild ones of late some hefty thunderstorms and hail showers could crop up... 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I guess with that low spinning around over us for a few days with not cold but cooler uppers not the mild ones of late some hefty thunderstorms and hail showers could crop up... 

 

Last time I checked as still is the case, were some interest at the back end of next week but soon gets flattened!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Look at that cold pool over Europe, and a nascent Scandi high! Any more of this malarkey, and I'll be dead before New Year!:cold:

9 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

 

PS: I've no idea where the quote box came from!

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Weather Preferences: coldie
  • Location: Reading

Hi All, quite new to this and trying to learn but there's something I don't understand. The models are predicting a SSW for just after Xmas. So why the sudden if it's being predicted 2weeks ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, Dacyfo said:

Hi All, quite new to this and trying to learn but there's something I don't understand. The models are predicting a SSW for just after Xmas. So why the sudden if it's being predicted 2weeks ahead.

The "sudden" refers to the rapid warming of the Stratosphere, it can jump 40/50/60c in a matter of days

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, Dacyfo said:

Hi All, quite new to this and trying to learn but there's something I don't understand. The models are predicting a SSW for just after Xmas. So why the sudden if it's being predicted 2weeks ahead.

The stratosphere experiences a fast/rapid increase in temperature. A sudden spike in temperature... See where the sudden fits in? Doesn't refer to the prediction but the rapidity. 

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