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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

image.thumb.png.47211b83a8ce3d25b27b3b01cceb119c.png

head to the Med for a white Christmas and T shirt weather for us!

Edit: Pretty horrendous 6z Ops run to be honest. Low pressure in the Atlantic dominating from start to finish, a couple of brief attempts at ridging blown away.

Actually most of Europe is pretty seasonal on the 06z for Xmas, not just the med.

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-2-288.png

gfs-9-288.png

gfs-16-288.png

Edited by Seasonality
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Jonathan Rhodri Roberts Enthusiast

Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Actually most of Europe is pretty Seasonal on the 06z for Xmas, not just the med.

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-2-288.png

gfs-9-288.png

gfs-16-288.png

It would be dry though across central & southern UK which would make a change as the last dry, sunny Christmas Day we had in Porthcawl was back in 2010, every year since then has been pretty bleak to say the least for the big day

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Morning all. Apart from the ECM being an xmas scrooge this mornings runs are very interesting indeed and it is clear to me that something is brewing and we are going to see a period of wild model runs as they try to get a grip of whats going on, then i think we will get another infamous Ian Brown WTF moment and the models will run with stonking charts and tick down into a real cold snaw filled long winter period. Just my thoughts, some may agree some may not each to there own etc. lets just enjoy the ride and remember to respect one another and our views.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
2 hours ago, togwotee pass said:

Chris Fawkes suggested 3 opposing signals in 1 tweet, I won't repeat them.  The best we can say I think is that signals are mixed this year, that's all I meant.

The expected split vortex is only really likely to impact the last 3rd of the winter too. (If it brings another 4 day easterly in March then it doesn't count IMHO.)

The other reasons he gave for his prediction do tend to favour a mild strat to winter but also tend to favour a negative NAO and increased risk of colder conditions for January and February. 

Also, from the posts from the likes of GP etc, there are many other signals besides the strat warming and developments that point to a lot of mid to high latitude blocking this winter.

Anyway, interesting to see that the GFS and GFSP still show colder conditions around the Christmas period. Would be better if the likes of the ECM went a long with it. One to watch for now though, and some of the background signals do point to heigh rises to our north around that time I believe.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Morning all. Apart from the ECM being an xmas scrooge this mornings runs are very interesting indeed and it is clear to me that something is brewing and we are going to see a period of wild model runs as they try to get a grip of whats going on, then i think we will get another infamous Ian Brown WTF moment and the models will run with stonking charts and tick down into a real cold snaw filled long winter period. Just my thoughts, some may agree some may not each to there own etc. lets just enjoy the ride and remember to respect one another and our views.

6

I wouldn't get too despondent with 00z ECM op. The mean isn't backing it.

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.d48831c3ff8f4c3bf190755e3a2042c4.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
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Posted

EC Clusters - fascinating position to be in for 24th December:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121300_264.

Suggestions of ridging out west on all, and cluster 1 close to Scandi High territory. Potential routes to cold on all, especially clusters 1 and 2.

The wintry flavour doesn't last though. By 28th December, it's either UK high or flat Atlantic:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121300_360.

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
51 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

image.thumb.png.47211b83a8ce3d25b27b3b01cceb119c.png

head to the Med for a white Christmas and T shirt weather for us!

Edit: Pretty horrendous 6z Ops run to be honest. Low pressure in the Atlantic dominating from start to finish, a couple of brief attempts at ridging blown away.

You must be looking at a different 06z run to me - the Atlantic is in until next week (as expected for a while now), but from about T+177 onwards (Thurs 20th Dec, hardly the depths of FI) we start to move into a slack easterly drift which is in place until the end of high res (T+240). Only in low res do we get an Atlantic conveyor belt and we all know T+240 onwards is hardly worth the paper it's written on.

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC Clusters - fascinating position to be in for 24th December:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121300_264.

Suggestions of ridging out west on all, and cluster 1 close to Scandi High territory. Potential routes to cold on all, especially clusters 1 and 2.

The wintry flavour doesn't last though. By 28th December, it's either UK high or flat Atlantic:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121300_360.

I was enjoying reading this post until the end bit. Couldn’t you have left that bit off?  

On a serious note though, it seems there’s plenty of interest around the Christmas period which I’m sure many would happily take. Hopefully if it doesn’t last the next opportunity will be just round the corner. 

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
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Posted
4 hours ago, carinthian said:

Now that's a nice looking chart from UKMO. Bags of potential with strong ridging in Mid- Atlantic and a renewed push of high pressure NW from the Russian High. Would be nice to see the 300mb jet flow and positioning at this time. Hopefully the low pressure should start to sink into Europe in time for Christmas Eve. This evolution looks nearer to GFS than the ECM run. Will get an update from over here this morning when we get our model update.

C

Ok here goes with latest thoughts from the team. Early next week wet and windy for the British Isles , especially west. Towards the end of the week the area of low pressure fills ( slow moving)  over the British Isles and tracks into Europe by day 10. Now the interesting part ,the longer term charts between Christmas and New Year still shows a robust ridge to develop and push westward from the North Russian/ Siberian High to the North of Britain . This will help to bring in a cold .possibly very cold flow into the British Isles. This is a singular model output and maybe a rogue run but has a good record in the 10-15 day range. See if the bigger models pick this trend up soon. Meanwhile after a nice start in the village, outbreaks of snow moving in and current temp -8c.

C

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

I’ll be taking P1 please sir.   Ensembles are a real mixed bag to be honest, difficult to take any guidance at all at day 10, there’s a real lack of colder uppers floating about mind you.

78CDF54A-90EA-460F-9173-BC9179EAC4C2.png

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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Posted

Some of the posts in here with comments on charts from 192 onwards might well be less knee jerk if my suggestion of a few days ago is tried.

Not comparing run to run at those time scales but like with like 00Z or whichever run you want to use. Do this down to about 144 then yes run to run and comparisons between the 'big' 3, GFS, ECMWF, UK Met.

It will still give the enjoyment of watching the models but is almost always a less 'up and down' ride.

Still if that is your preference then fine but try not to be surprised when, for instance the 06 Z is not even similar to the 00Z.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
44 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC Clusters - fascinating position to be in for 24th December:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121300_264.

Suggestions of ridging out west on all, and cluster 1 close to Scandi High territory. Potential routes to cold on all, especially clusters 1 and 2.

The wintry flavour doesn't last though. By 28th December, it's either UK high or flat Atlantic:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121300_360.

Let's just hope that Bert Foord's meteorological maxim, 'the arrival of cold weather is far more easy to predict than its subsequent breakdown', has the validity I suspect (hope) it does, then?:santa-emoji:

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

Based on the 06z GFS op it's time to dust off a Christmas classic tune by Mud - "Zonally this Christmas"

More appropriate for the days after Christmas to be honest, as the big day itself looks dry and chilly

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

image.thumb.png.d8383275c6763af280e190f706d053cd.png

Swingometers for the big day are inconsistent as you might expect at this range, models seemed to be picking up on an anticyclonic signal yesterday but not evident this morning. Mild is still the form horse but out in FI. Main point is no trend has appeared yet.

The afternoon / evening runs have consistently appeared milder then the morning runs for some reason...

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minus86BriJ Explorer

minus86BriJ

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
Posted
20 minutes ago, Banbury said:

 

Really is JFF at this range but Xmas does look a very festive chilly one 

 

gfsnh-1-300[1].png

I'd like to see the model's recent hints at semi favourable ridging leading into Christmas pick up some traction over the next few days (duh!), I'd even bank a cold and frosty one now if it was going tbh.

From a wider perspective there is a lot to be optimistic about this winter IMO.   Members who were lurking these forums back in the noughties would have sold both kidneys for even a sniff of a scandi high in November and December.  The fact neither has delivered a snow event is again IMO irrelevant especially considering their early season timing.  The mere fact they even happened is something to celebrate!  Top that with positive signals from the main players here on SSWs, swans flying 30 meters higher than normal etc and of course the amazing BFTE last year, anyone posting whingey doomsday rubbish needs either A. Friends or B. a polite kick in the baubles.

 

 

 

 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

It's cold today, the hunt is over:cold:

Still not seen a flake of snow yet though, but winter not started yet, late Jan to early April the real snow window

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

With so many indicators suggesting a back-loaded winter, and even the Met hinting at some fun-and-games in early January, just how memorable might this winter be? A lot of time has passed, since February 1947...:cold:

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Lots of interest in the ensembles for something white on Christmas day, still all up in the air if you ask me, some members show it turning a lot colder by the end of the year too. Here is a selection I pulled out for the big day.:santa-emoji::oldgood:

gens-0-1-300.png

gens-1-1-288.png

gens-3-1-288.png

gens-12-1-288.png

gens-15-1-288.png

gens-17-1-288.png

gens-18-1-300.png

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Staffordshire Aficionado

Staffordshire

Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
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Posted
8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still not seen a flake of snow yet though, but winter not started yet, late Jan to early April the real snow window

Always have to laugh when I see you post your weekly reminder of this, I can assure you early-mid jan has a much greater chance of seeing snow than April.

Take a look at the mean CET records and compare January’s historical data to April’s, it will help you recognise the difference; it is very rare April is even within 2c warmer than January, often 3-4c warmer.

 

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
5 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Always have to laugh when I see you post your weekly reminder of this, I can assure you early-mid jan has a much greater chance of seeing snow than April.

Take a look at the mean CET records and compare January’s historical data to April’s, it will help you recognise the difference; it is very rare April is even within 2c warmer than January, often 3-4c warmer.

 

Oh no no no, I'm not getting involved in this argument this time round!:oldlaugh:

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
7 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Always have to laugh when I see you post your weekly reminder of this, I can assure you early-mid jan has a much greater chance of seeing snow than April.

Take a look at the mean CET records and compare January’s historical data to April’s, it will help you recognise the difference; it is very rare April is even within 2c warmer than January, often 3-4c warmer.

 

Both often bring more wintriness than December, from personal experience.

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Devonshire Enthusiast

Devonshire

Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
Posted
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Not comparing run to run at those time scales but like with like 00Z or whichever run you want to use. Do this down to about 144 then yes run to run and comparisons between the 'big' 3, GFS, ECMWF, UK Met. 

It will still give the enjoyment of watching the models but is almost always a less 'up and down' ride.

John, I can see the logic of this in terms of expectation management (and emotional resilience!) - but this begs the question - that has probably been asked (and answered) before somewhere;  are the 0, 6, 12, and 18z runs (e.g. for GFS) different in the assumptions, algorithms, no. of data points built in (or anything else) - or is it simply a case of different starting data being put in? (notwithstanding weather balloons avoiding Santa's sleigh over Christmas and related myths)

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