The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

That's more like it from the GFS 0z instead of these crazy lows from the Atlantic. 

Yes i too feel GFS looked very good.. lets hope its on the ball.

[snowangel32]

I dont get it both UKMO and gfs 0z both show hieght rises towards greenland and significant Strat warmings near Xmas obviously at this range it could be wrong as we all know. But its definately not showing Zonal. So Winter is over just because we had one failed Easterly that was a bit wishy washy but still could provide snow to Scotland and Northern England. Sure this is meant to be the hunt for cold thread.

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, togwotee pass said:

We have a west QBO etc, I think 'nearly all' is an exaggeration personally.

Also, from what bits I've read on here, a vortex displacement is better for Boston MA, rather than Boston UK.  Time will tell anyway,

How is ‘nearly all’ an exaggeration if you can only pick out one that suggests something different?

All weather prediction is based on potential surrounding background signals and model output. Not based on a hunch. It’s not as if those signals have been wrong so far either. It can be seen that developments are going a long with them.

Some odd comments here this morning. Think I’m going to take a break for a bit.

[seabreeze86]

GFS p goes for it this morning giving a white Christmas for many. Nice to look at but needs support to take seriously 

[Banbury]

17 minutes ago, draztik said:

‘Background signals’... that’s become the new way of saying ‘potential’. Means very little if nothing is actually produced on the ground. 

Good job the 'experts' don't take that view , they use the LR models for their forecasts , they can't just ignore them .

Maybe a new way of forecasting will be " look out the window , see what you got "

[matty007]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Has more vadility than just going on a hunch. Otherwise all the weather and model discussion is pointless and we may as well all pack it in.

Sorry, but you're wrong. 

Weather models are an amazing tool and are generally very good for short term forecasting, but that can not be said for long term. Sure, on occasion they may predict something in the long term, but that can mostly be attributed to an accurate or lucky prediction. Make enough predictions and you are bound to be correct eventually. 

All weather models are is a computer generated environment that analyses the current situation and then predicts the most likely outcome in relation to that current situation. Unfortunately the weather isn't that predictable and a slight change in wind direction, speed etc can turn a cold snap into a mild snap etc etc. Or a December 2010 into a  December 2015. 

How many times has a credible forecaster touted a significant spell only for it to turn into nothing?  How many times has a hot summer been predicted only to become a washout? If the weather models long term meant anything, there would be no need for forecasting. 

Anybody forecasting past the end of this week (myself included) is putting it in the hands of the gods. 

In summary, models are a vital tool for sub 5-6 day forecasting or there about. Past that, we are all predictors, not forecasters. 
 

[Met4Cast]

11 minutes ago, togwotee pass said:

We have a west QBO etc, I think 'nearly all' is an exaggeration personally.

Also, from what bits I've read on here, a vortex displacement is better for Boston MA, rather than Boston UK.  Time will tell anyway,

Well, sortof. 

It only went slightly positive (Westerly) during November, before that it was very much in the -QBO phase with the Westerly winds still propagating downwards from high in the atmosphere

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

This winter falls on the transitional phase of the QBO from eQBO to wQBO so nobody really knew what effect this would have on weather patterns. It's not as simple as saying "we have a West QBO" this year unfortunately. In any event, a wQBO doesn't guarantee a mild winter, I suspect the wQBO effects wont be felt until later in the winter period, if at all.

Edited December 13, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Sorry, but you're wrong. 

Weather models are an amazing tool and are generally very good for short term forecasting, but that can not be said for long term. Sure, on occasion they may predict something in the long term, but that can mostly be attributed to an accurate or lucky prediction. Make enough predictions and you are bound to be correct eventually. 

All weather models are is a computer generated environment that analyses the current situation and then predicts the most likely outcome in relation to that current situation. Unfortunately the weather isn't that predictable and a slight change in wind direction, speed etc can turn a cold snap into a mild snap etc etc. Or a December 2010 into a  December 2015. 

How many times has a credible forecaster touted a significant spell only for it to turn into nothing?  How many times has a hot summer been predicted only to become a washout? If the weather models long term meant anything, there would be no need for forecasting. 

Anybody forecasting past the end of this week (myself included) is putting it in the hands of the gods. 

In summary, models are a vital tool for sub 5-6 day forecasting or there about. Past that, we are all predictors, not forecasters. 
 

So what is the point in computer models, this forum, meteorologists etc? 

All weather predictions are based on potential from looking at model output and analysing background signals. Not based on a hunch. Otherwise, what are any of us doing here?

[matty007]

17 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Being a fellow Gooner I hope you are more optimistic about tonight  

I have to say the back ground signals for this Winter signal blocking that could ( note could not will ) favour the UK.

Seems yourself and C Fawkes are in a lonely camp 

But of course, we are going to tear them apart. 4-5 nil I would hope. 

We're on a real good run at the moment. 
 

 

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Sorry, but you're wrong. 

Weather models are an amazing tool and are generally very good for short term forecasting, but that can not be said for long term. Sure, on occasion they may predict something in the long term, but that can mostly be attributed to an accurate or lucky prediction. Make enough predictions and you are bound to be correct eventually. 

All weather models are is a computer generated environment that analyses the current situation and then predicts the most likely outcome in relation to that current situation. Unfortunately the weather isn't that predictable and a slight change in wind direction, speed etc can turn a cold snap into a mild snap etc etc. Or a December 2010 into a  December 2015. 

How many times has a credible forecaster touted a significant spell only for it to turn into nothing?  How many times has a hot summer been predicted only to become a washout? If the weather models long term meant anything, there would be no need for forecasting. 

Anybody forecasting past the end of this week (myself included) is putting it in the hands of the gods. 

In summary, models are a vital tool for sub 5-6 day forecasting or there about. Past that, we are all predictors, not forecasters. 
 

I think you should re read your last posts. 

 

You say thay 5/6 days is good for forecasting but beyond that pointless but your first post suggested that the whole of the winter was going to be wet, windy and mild. So what we going with 5/6 days or write off the next 100 days?

Edited December 13, 2018 by That ECM

[snowfish1]

Guys. Can we keep it friendly dudes. Everyone has an opinion and a right to it. Second can anyone post a chart of the strat illustrating what we should be looking for this winter. The diagram which looks a bit ying and yang red and blue ha ha. I'm very green in this area thanks guys 

Edited December 13, 2018 by snowfish1

[Paul_1978]

12 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Sorry, but you're wrong. 

Weather models are an amazing tool and are generally very good for short term forecasting, but that can not be said for long term. Sure, on occasion they may predict something in the long term, but that can mostly be attributed to an accurate or lucky prediction. Make enough predictions and you are bound to be correct eventually. 

All weather models are is a computer generated environment that analyses the current situation and then predicts the most likely outcome in relation to that current situation. Unfortunately the weather isn't that predictable and a slight change in wind direction, speed etc can turn a cold snap into a mild snap etc etc. Or a December 2010 into a  December 2015. 

How many times has a credible forecaster touted a significant spell only for it to turn into nothing?  How many times has a hot summer been predicted only to become a washout? If the weather models long term meant anything, there would be no need for forecasting. 

Anybody forecasting past the end of this week (myself included) is putting it in the hands of the gods. 

In summary, models are a vital tool for sub 5-6 day forecasting or there about. Past that, we are all predictors, not forecasters. 
 

I think you’d be better off in the short range models thread then mate. 

[Purga]

White Christmas!

Edited December 13, 2018 by Purga

[matty007]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

So what is the point in computer models, this forum, meteorologists etc? 

All weather predictions are based on potential from looking at model output and analysing background signals. Not based on a hunch. Otherwise, what are any of us doing here?

I made quite clear the point of computer models. Short term wise they are very valuable. 

Looking weeks ahead, or months, while interesting, typically has no credence. All they do is let you see the current trends with a view to signalling the most probable outcome for the future. Is this not a prediction? Not only that, there are multiple ways of interpreting models which is why so many forecasts are so divided. 

Really we're going too deep here. All I came to say is that my 'gut' feeling is that it will be a very mild winter. I may be right, may be wrong. Makes no odds to me. I would be happy to see coldies get a cold winter as I was gifted a wonderful summer. 

It was just my thoughts and a prediction, the same as everybody else is making. 

 

[matty007]

11 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I think you should re read your last posts. 

 

You say thay 5/6 days is good for forecasting but beyond that pointless but your first post suggested that the whole of the winter was going to be wet, windy and mild. So what we going with 5/6 days or write off the next 100 days?

No no no. 

I came to say that I have a 'feeling' that this winter will be very mild. You know, the same way many are saying it will be cold? Whose right? God knows. 

I then went on to say that looking at the models NOW affirms this. We have had very little in the way of cold and the models in the reliable timeframe  continue this trend. Of course, that may change. 

This is being taken way too seriously. 

[MattStoke]

That would be why I also talked about the background signals which, no offence, have a bit more to them than just a hunch.

The long range models may be unreliable but they too still have more vadility than a hunch.

Completely entitled to your opinion that the winter will be mild and unsettled. Basing that on just a hunch whilst dismissing actual scientific techniques of weather predictions does seem rather odd though.

[Summer Sun]

00z GFS op looks to have gone off on one in the days before and after Christmas for the coldest air. The control has gone off on one with the mild air around the same time

[SLEETY]

Complete   garbage from Ecm this morning,the way that low pressures just  expands and smashes through the whole of Europe at t192 onwards.Model produces junk sometimes.

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

00z GFS op looks to have gone off on one in the days before and after Christmas for the coldest air. The control has gone off on one with the mild air around the same time

And for the mildest right at the death 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Lets see what the ECM ensembles look like!

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Lets see what the ECM ensembles look like!

Rollercoaster springs to mind

[Chesil View]

This place always reminds me of people in a queue at the bank of or the post office. You get those happy to wait because they know they,re going to get served and those indignant at having to wait,impatiently, shuffling and giving off signals of their of their right to be served immediately.

[SLEETY]

22 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

So what is the point in computer models, this forum, meteorologists etc? 

All weather predictions are based on potential from looking at model output and analysing background signals. Not based on a hunch. Otherwise, what are any of us doing here?

After about 6 days not much point in taking much notice of what the models show.They are normally hopelessly incorrect,look at the last week and this Easterly for example,and how quickly they wanted to push through the Atlantic.

[matty007]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That would be why I also talked about the background signals which, no offence, have a bit more to them than just a hunch.

The long range models may be unreliable but they too still have more vadility than a hunch.

Completely entitled to your opinion that the winter will be mild and unsettled. Basing that on just a hunch whilst dismissing actual scientific techniques of weather predictions does seem rather odd though.

No offence taken. Just to say though, that not all the signs you are speaking of contradict my opinion...

 

[Dennis]

GpsP shows a new scandihigh ater 20th