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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC doesnt look anywhere as nice as GFS at 168 tho..

Story of our last few weeks lol!!all the potential there but we end up on the wrong side with nothing!!dunno whether to actually believe what the charts are showing for around christmas time at all!!time for that run mate?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Could do with some energy digging SE at 192 onwards..

Without even looking, would I be correct in saying there is a lack of lower heights in to mid/southern Europe?

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
7 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Without even looking, would I be correct in saying there is a lack of lower heights in to mid/southern Europe?

Yes, it ends pretty grim. 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
5 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Yes, it ends pretty grim. 

Until we get lower heights to our South we are always fighting an uphill battle. We need some southern troughing not just northern blocking!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Looks a bit stormy in the near time, on saturday.

Gales over southern Britain, maybe even severe gales.

Lots of interest in this run

storm1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

UKMO 144h. As @tight isobarhas been hinting, the height rises are starting to get interesting in terms of cold potential. Now edging closer and closer! Not in far FI anymore. 

UE144-21 (5).gif

Now that's a nice looking chart from UKMO. Bags of potential with strong ridging in Mid- Atlantic and a renewed push of high pressure NW from the Russian High. Would be nice to see the 300mb jet flow and positioning at this time. Hopefully the low pressure should start to sink into Europe in time for Christmas Eve. This evolution looks nearer to GFS than the ECM run. Will get an update from over here this morning when we get our model update.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Looks a bit stormy in the near time, on saturday.

Gales over southern Britain, maybe even severe gales.

Lots of interest in this run

storm1.png

Zzzzzzzzz, typical December, rain and gales are so dull, 

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

Might be a very general and broad comment, but I personally see very little for optimism..

Very early days for Winter granted, but I have a overwhelming feeling this one will be rather wet, mild and overcast with very little in the way of cold. 2015 strikes again. 

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
9 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Might be a very general and broad comment, but I personally see very little for optimism..

Very early days for Winter granted, but I have a overwhelming feeling this one will be rather wet, mild and overcast with very little in the way of cold. 2015 strikes again. 

Lottery numbers why youre at it plz.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
13 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Might be a very general and broad comment, but I personally see very little for optimism..

Very early days for Winter granted, but I have a overwhelming feeling this one will be rather wet, mild and overcast with very little in the way of cold. 2015 strikes again. 

I’m sure you are not alone in this thinking. You maybe proven correct, time will tell. However if you look at the longer term models and the strong suggestion of blocking in the NH there is more than enough to suggest that this could be an interesting winter from a cold perspective. We have seen some fi gfs runs which display a NH profile that we would welcome. 

‘Worth remembering that we are 8 days from seeing the turn of the year on the ecm

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Hope I’m wrong in saying this but just starting to get the feeling of loads of excellent background signals etc but we seem to keep landing just on the wrong side of it and have this horrible feeling this could be the story of the winter, thankfully we have time on our side for a change so let’s hope all these signals come together right in the middle of winter

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I’m sure you are not alone in this thinking. You maybe proven correct, time will tell. However if you look at the longer term models and the strong suggestion of blocking in the NH there is more than enough to suggest that this could be an interesting winter from a cold perspective. We have seen some fi gfs runs which display a NH profile that we would welcome. 

considering 90% of our weather in winter is "wet, mild and overcast, with very little cold" it doesn't take much to think it'll be like that.  But we should try to look for the interesting stuff, other wise there's not much poit in weather watching

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
12 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Lottery numbers why youre at it plz.

Hehe. 

Let's be quite frank, trying to gauge the weather at anything past five days is a lottery. You can quote all the models and profiles you want, they mean diddly squat on the whole. I'm just going on pure hunch here, and I anticipate nothing but mildness and rain interspersed with a cold day or two mixed in. Maybe a dusting of snow for a few hours.Looking at the models, while irrelevant long term, only strengthens this in my opinion.

I could end up with egg on my face, not really bothered. All us weather buffs are nothing but glorified fortune tellers with technology for assistance. 



 

Edited by matty007
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
6 minutes ago, draztik said:

‘Background signals’... that’s become the new way of saying ‘potential’. Means very little if nothing is actually produced on the ground. 

Has more vadility than just going on a hunch. Otherwise all the weather and model discussion is pointless and we may as well all pack it in as it is all just potential.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

That's more like it from the GFS 0z instead of these crazy lows from the Atlantic. 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
13 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Hehe. 

Let's be quite frank, trying to gauge the weather at anything past five days is a lottery. You can quote all the models and profiles you want, they mean diddly squat on the whole. I'm just going on pure hunch here, and I anticipate nothing but mildness and rain interspersed with a cold day or two mixed in. Maybe a dusting of snow for a few hours.Looking at the models, while irrelevant long term, only strengthens this in my opinion.

I could end up with egg on my face, not really bothered. All us weather buffs are nothing but glorified fortune tellers with technology for assistance. 



 

Being a fellow Gooner I hope you are more optimistic about tonight  

I have to say the back ground signals for this Winter signal blocking that could ( note could not will ) favour the UK.

Seems yourself and C Fawkes are in a lonely camp 

Edited by Banbury
wrong quote
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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston
13 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Hehe. 

Let's be quite frank, trying to gauge the weather at anything past five days is a lottery. You can quote all the models and profiles you want, they mean diddly squat on the whole. I'm just going on pure hunch here, and I anticipate nothing but mildness and rain interspersed with a cold day or two mixed in. Maybe a dusting of snow for a few hours.Looking at the models, while irrelevant long term, only strengthens this in my opinion.

I could end up with egg on my face, not really bothered. All us weather buffs are nothing but glorified fortune tellers with technology for assistance. 



 

This forum is a good reflection of wider society, everything has become black and white, no room for nuance.  The background signals aren't to be ignored, nor are they gospel truth, like most things there is a middle ground.

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