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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

18z not too bad actually. 

Heights moving North in the Atlantic and moving North-West out of Scandi towards Greenland while the “limpet low’ slowly fills over the UK.

0613D7AB-7A15-408F-9681-3E2C5F09797C.thumb.png.288c432d680332e5bfc6ab38d4defbd2.png

The 18z does go on to produce this very, very strange looking chart, however.

2F4A5654-B908-4936-8AEB-1A9138DCDEBE.thumb.png.957a63b8491a9872b4feccfb6cc19666.png

one to many pink gins i think....

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 minute ago, More Snow said:

Wrong on both... no Russian high its a Scandy high and thats a mid atlantic ridge not an Azores high...

Really?! Looks like its Western edge just nudges into East Scandi - its 'core' is Russia. Atlantic ridge or Azores high just off coast of Iberia. The two together places Atlantic LP over blighty.

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Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

18z not too bad actually. 

Heights moving North in the Atlantic and moving North-West out of Scandi towards Greenland while the “limpet low’ slowly fills over the UK.

0613D7AB-7A15-408F-9681-3E2C5F09797C.thumb.png.288c432d680332e5bfc6ab38d4defbd2.png

The 18z does go on to produce this very, very strange looking chart, however.

2F4A5654-B908-4936-8AEB-1A9138DCDEBE.thumb.png.957a63b8491a9872b4feccfb6cc19666.png

Just doesn't look right. We've already seen some very bizarre charts this winter.

 

I'd expect heights to build just west or through the UK there too.

Edited by evans1892
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

GFS 18Z showing a filling low situation squeezed out by heights to the NE and our west, trying to join hands, so some form of height rise to our NW could surface in the immediate run up to christmas, we may end up with a cold settled christmas eve and day as opposed to wet and windy, all would depend on the strength and position of  energy off the eastern seaboard, signs this could be weaker than being shown yesterday.

 

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4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Really?! Looks like its Western edge just nudges into East Scandi - its 'core' is Russia. Atlantic ridge or Azores high just off coast of Iberia. The two together places Atlantic LP over blighty.

I think you will find 80% of Russia is covered by a displaced PV  so cannot be a Russian high and a mid Atlantic ridge is a lot different to an Azores high. again short term pain of LP over UK for longer term gain.

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Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
3 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Just doesn't look right. We've already seen some very bizarre charts this winter.

 

I'd expect heights to build just west or through the UK there too.

 Heights going on a holiday.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
12 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

18z not too bad actually. 

Heights moving North in the Atlantic and moving North-West out of Scandi towards Greenland while the “limpet low’ slowly fills over the UK.

0613D7AB-7A15-408F-9681-3E2C5F09797C.thumb.png.288c432d680332e5bfc6ab38d4defbd2.png

The 18z does go on to produce this very, very strange looking chart, however.

2F4A5654-B908-4936-8AEB-1A9138DCDEBE.thumb.png.957a63b8491a9872b4feccfb6cc19666.png

Under any clear skies that chart would produce some very cold night time temperatures for the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

The ensembles for the air pressure are all over the place. With just 4days agreement before they go their very seperate ways. What I have mentally noted was that 4days ago the GFS has overplayed the Atlantic. That huge area of low pressure is far less potent now than it was forecast a few days ago. The  Scandi High pushed much further west than predicted by the models 5days ago.

 

I get that feeling the teleconnections are building up to something special and the models can't quite grasp the idea yet and factor it into the runs .

prmslAberdeenshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
3 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Just your standard jet stream.

jet.png

js.png

A split jet, something we have now, and something we have seen alot of this year.. its all over the place, suggesting heights will be putting pressure on it, and more energy in the southern arm.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

GFS 18z delivers a different evolution with a muted Atlantic as a common theme now.  

The Atlantic breakthrough has been pushed back to late Saturday.

GFS is trying to give us some Christmas cheer even if belatedly at this range

image.thumb.png.384086030ac83f5a3338ed346058b9a3.png

Leads to...

image.thumb.png.831ad1ca7df4ae8fc8a9b4add5db1f18.pngimage.thumb.png.0535c19cd6a9c0cd90b6afd9a2e40c11.png

It wouldn't take much of a 'tweak'.:cold-emoji:

 

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think its this, i haven't counted but there is a list here.

Image result for list of ssw

What I was drawn to straight away on this list while considering the Displacement vs Split idea, is that there are by far more Westerly QBO winters (like we're  entering now) with splits occurring from SSW,s than Displacements, which seem to favour Easterly QBO winters. (Although the last 2 SSWs seem to go against this idea)

Still, if we're taking into account % based theories and pattern matching.....

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
46 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

What I was drawn to straight away onTthis list while considering the Displacement vs Split idea, is that there are by far more Westerly QBO winters (like we're  entering now) with splits occurring from SSW,s than Displacements, which seem to favour Easterly QBO winters. (Although the last 2 SSWs seem to go against this idea)

Still, if we're taking into account % based theories and pattern matching.....

They seem to go in spells as well, like 3 on the bounce displacements etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Things are starting to get very interesting

gfsnh-0-174.png?0

Finally looks like the models are starting to wake up to the strat warmings the Vortex looks under extreme pressure and if that lope can drop into europe it would be fun and games. Like you said the plot thickens and its not in the deepest realms of FI. lets hope the trend continues. Greenland looks ripe for the taking.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

UKMO 144h. As @tight isobarhas been hinting, the height rises are starting to get interesting in terms of cold potential. Now edging closer and closer! Not in far FI anymore. 

UE144-21 (5).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

 00z puts the forum into meltdown  

B0172D07-285D-49C2-AEA1-1CE2F23BBD99.thumb.png.185869a4045256fb6ea336d874b997e8.png

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
16 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

 00z puts the forum into meltdown  

B0172D07-285D-49C2-AEA1-1CE2F23BBD99.thumb.png.185869a4045256fb6ea336d874b997e8.png

i  say the same thing looking at  xmas day its looking  very interesting  for the east coast  at the  moment!!

gens-16-1-300.png

Edited by tinybill
add on
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS 00Z is interesting- shows a seasonal/cold christmas ..

gfsnh-0-276.png?0

And the strat warming looks very nice too-(warmer  air making into Greenland by the end..)

gfsnh-10-384.png?0

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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