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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
12 minutes ago, Don said:

That’s not the impression I have got from the strat guys?

I think you need to read it again. We might have a chance at cold over Christmas, but a real chance of proper cold from mid Jan onwards. 

We really need a split vortex for a higher than average chance of cold, without a split we relying on transient cold spells which rarely deliver nationwide. 

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

For the second time in an hour....keep it civil. Enough sniping.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.c64c0d6b49f29c731a5e08be33fb9b7d.png

Swingometers are in for christmas day and recent runs haven't been as mild but colder runs are in the minority... P12 of the 12z GFS has been the best run so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
4 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I think you need to read it again. We might have a chance at cold over Christmas, but a real chance of proper cold from mid Jan onwards. 

We really need a split vortex for a higher than average chance of cold, without a split we relying on transient cold spells which rarely deliver nationwide. 

Can’t agree with this. There have been significant cold and snowy spells that weren’t linked to strat warming. Other signals point to increasing northern blocking from late December, which can deliver cold to our shores without a split PV.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No and the reason that's not the impression your getting, is because that's not what they're saying - They are saying potential for SSW induced cold spells from 10th Jan onward's but trop lead possibly earlier than that.

And there is agreement with this from the guys over on 33drain, they have mentioned there quite keen on weak heights around Greenland around 10 days time and are also thinking GEFS is looking along the correct pattern. Strat warming growing more likely and heights into Greenland before main course in first week of Jan? Promising. 

Edited by Bullseye
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Can’t agree with this. There have been significant cold and snowy spells that weren’t linked to strat warming. Other signals point to increasing northern blocking, which can deliver cold to our shores without a split PV.

when was the last vortex split in winter? Did I read we had one last Feb or was that just a warming? Agreed, I think a little bit too much faith is put in these scenarios.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening ... looks like  Saturdays weather  could well turn out very challenging to forecast....ie rainfall or what ever precipitation being pushed back further west by tomorrow 

ukprec.png

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Long time lurker, here everyday in winter. Excited to see lots of new page to read, disappointing when it is squabbling. Thanks to those who spend their time explaining to us newbies. Fingers crossed for snow this winter. Many thanks, Evie 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
8 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I think you need to read it again. We might have a chance at cold over Christmas, but a real chance of proper cold from mid Jan onwards. 

We really need a split vortex for a higher than average chance of cold, without a split we relying on transient cold spells which rarely deliver nationwide. 

That’s a seriously glass half empty interpretation of what is being said. I’ll agree that a split vortex gives us the max chance of a significant event, but there are other signals in play that are well worth investing time into reading. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

And there is agreement with this from the guys over on 33drain, they have mentioned there quite keen on weak heights around Greenland around 10days time and are also thinking GEFS is looking along the correct pattern. Strat warming growing more likely and heights into Greenland before main desert in first week of Jan? Promising. 

It is promising.  However, Chris Fawkes isn’t buying into any real cold potential anytime soon.  Just one opinion though.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.c64c0d6b49f29c731a5e08be33fb9b7d.png

Swingometers are in for christmas day and recent runs haven't been as mild but colder runs are in the minority... P12 of the 12z GFS has been the best run so far.

Looks like my toddler got her crayons out again but if she’s decided to make it colder on Christmas Day that’s all right with me.  

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

when was the last vortex split in winter? Did I read we had one last Feb or was that just a warming? Agreed, I think a little bit too much faith is put in these scenarios.

I believe the one last February was a split and that these do normally occur late winter. Not often they occur early winter, I think.

December 2010 is a good example of a significant cold spell not caused by a SSW. Unless I’m mistaken.

No doubt that a SSW greatly improves the chance of significant cold, but it isn’t the be all and end all.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening ... looks like  Saturdays weather  could well turn out very challenging to forecast....ie rainfall or what ever precipitation being pushed back further west by tomorrow 

ukprec.png

Can`t help noticing that it isn`t that heavy either away from the North. I can see why the Arpege showed it`s chart fro snow in France, misses southern England and then maybe Midlands North. If you want more than a fleeting flake you need decent rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, DonnaThw said:

Looks like my toddler got her crayons out again but if she’s decided to make it colder on Christmas Day that’s all right with me.  

Tell her to use the purple crayon more 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Just now, Catacol said:

That’s a seriously glass half empty interpretation of what is being said. I’ll agree that a split vortex gives us the max chance of a significant event, but there are other signals in play that are well worth investing time into reading. 

I seriously think without a split vortex, you'll unlikely to get a sustained period of cold weather. For sure without a split we can get cold, but only transient affairs and not necessary countrywide. 

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

Anyway ........ I have a feeling 18z is going to give us a bit of festive cheer. 

Height rises to Greenland to Scandinavia? 

Take your pick. 

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
4 minutes ago, Don said:

It is promising.  However, Chris Fawkes isn’t buying into any real cold potential anytime soon.  Just one opinion though.

I did find his analysis of current situation with regard to strat unusual, as he indicates strat to set-up in northern Europe but mentions mild few weeks and chance of cold in February. Odd as goes against majority of what others are seeing upcoming on here and other side of pond. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Evening folks, late to the main models today, political weather has my attention today!

So T240. 22 Dec, good point to look at the run into Christmas, GEM, GFS, fV3 and ECM

image.thumb.jpg.bb8aa158c40948548eca669edccb24b7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.355a9411296c27ccf054680d973f6e19.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d8cf962cb70898346caafab75ccfc5f3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e1dc3efaa954407df8693bbdde07a611.jpg

For what it's worth, given viewing runs from earlier suites, and background signals, I do still think there is a chance of a ridge in the Atlantic as per GFS above.  After that, we look up - to the strat. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Evening folks, late to the main models today, political weather has my attention today!

So T240. 22 Dec, good point to look at the run into Christmas, GEM, GFS, fV3 and ECM

image.thumb.jpg.bb8aa158c40948548eca669edccb24b7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.355a9411296c27ccf054680d973f6e19.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d8cf962cb70898346caafab75ccfc5f3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e1dc3efaa954407df8693bbdde07a611.jpg

For what it's worth, given viewing runs from earlier suites, and background signals, I do still think there is a chance of a ridge in the Atlantic as per GFS above.  After that, we look up - to the strat. 

Chart 2 please, ditch the others. Azores Greeny ridge.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Southend-on-sea had 9 inches.

As did Places just a few miles to my east and south I'm in Gravesend a lot of the initial precip missed us

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
16 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

when was the last vortex split in winter? Did I read we had one last Feb or was that just a warming? Agreed, I think a little bit too much faith is put in these scenarios.

Look where the heights are way up in the stratosphere right at the time of the Easterly, surely not a co-incidence.

Composite Plot

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