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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
24 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

So it looks as though we will be getting cold rain again here in the south east. Vile. There have been tentative signals for high pressure build into Iceland for some time on and off on the models and again it is showing for around the 20th. What assurances do we have, if any, that the atlantic wont persist and negate each "try" by pumping lows our way which is exactly what has happened this time round? 

This is weather. There are never any assurances. To be fair any snow down here was an extreme long shot, so it’s not a big deal. Just have to hope that we get more favourable synoptics towards the end of the month and beyond.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

I appreciate everyone has there own opinion, but let’s keep this friendly please. Cheers!

Also, (and while not everyone will concur), nothing wrong personally hunting for temporary snow events, since even these are still part of cold weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

With 'due respect'...

"Pardon you"..??!!!

i can do a diagram/dynamical overview..

Of ebbing and sway..of differencial- sequences, of how heights of a certain character...can be established!!??.

To which operationals are pocking at..atm.

Trough-and developing lps-and other modeled energy spasms...

Are highlighting..the NON PROG/DECIPHER..as that exact.

!!!

Edit:..

The usuall 1 way juncture of default..and reverse(to mobile driven)..

Are as far away as perceivable!!

Ps.stick 2 ya beer..an kebabs m8...

There obviously having that trans fat/poison overload....

 

Nope, didn't understand a word of that TI......try again.....actually scrub that, I'll go with "Seasonality's" translation

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

There were winters growing up in London where I would have killed for a transient 5 minute flurry of wet snow. Winters generally are poor in the snow starved south, with obvious exceptions.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
46 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Going by what the strat guys are saying, I wouldn't be bothering with Christmas cold, end of Jan early Feb is probably the most likeliest opportunity for a nationwide event.  

That’s not the impression I have got from the strat guys?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
4 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

Nope, didn't understand a word of that TI......try again.....actually scrub that, I'll go with "Seasonality's" translation

Anyway going forward I think a block will form to the nne

Edited by Mapantz
Moving along
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yep snaw transient or otherwise is still Snaw, and yes this is the hunt for cold thread but in all reality we are here for the Snaw the cold is needed to get what we all want.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
1 minute ago, More Snow said:

yep snaw transient or otherwise is still Snaw, and yes this is the hunt for cold thread but in all reality we are here for the Snaw the cold is needed to get what we all want.

And what we all want is SNOW not snaw

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

And what we all want is SNOW not snaw

a word in scrabble! scottish for snow! they see enough of it, some parts buried on Saturday

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, swfc said:

No he wasn't

Direct quote from his post: “Keep em coming coming though mate because computer or not, I love reading your posts.”

Are you having trouble reading this evening?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Don said:

That’s not the impression I have got from the strat guys?

No and the reason that's not the impression your getting, is because that's not what they're saying - They are saying potential for SSW induced cold spells from 10th Jan onward's but trop lead possibly earlier than that.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No and the reason that's not the impression your getting, is because that's not what they're saying - They are saying potential for SSW induced cold spells from 10th Jan onward's but trop lead possibly earlier than that.

Potential for cold conditions before that too, with signals for blocking to our north west I believe. 

May have misread your comment a bit actually. Never mind. In agreement that there’s plenty to look forward to in the not too distant future ⛄️ 

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No and the reason that's not the impression your getting, is because that's not what they're saying - They are saying potential for SSW induced cold spells from 10th Jan onward's but trop lead possibly earlier than that.

Exactly, that was my understanding.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Potential for cold conditions before that too, with signals for blocking to our north west I believe. 

Like the Theresa May vote, I have confidence in this 

Edited by c00ps
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Purga said:

I wouldn't be pessimistic about the ECM DET run tonight. The long-range ECM has an interesting pressure anomaly by week 6, which is an unusually strong signal that far out:

image.thumb.png.c01de268584e0cc2e5eac2520992a6d7.png

The EPS clusters are also showing strong blocking - so all to play for.

That’s thursdays run ........

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Purga said:

I wouldn't be pessimistic about the ECM DET run tonight. The long-range ECM has an interesting pressure anomaly by week 6, which is an unusually strong signal that far out:

image.thumb.png.c01de268584e0cc2e5eac2520992a6d7.png

The EPS clusters are also showing strong blocking - so all to play for.

Week 6 as in 42 days? Blimey.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That’s thursdays run ........

It's still there Blue - that's just to illustrate.

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