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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
1 minute ago, More Snow said:

They currently have me down for 14 hours of snaw followed for by and 15 hours of sleet. that is for town centre and im slightly higher and a mile from town so could easy be all snaw for me. i do agree with most on here that the next interest is xmas period and into the new year and im really looking forward to watching things unfold as we move toward this time zone on the models.

Jammy sod lol. Only playing just get out and enjoy it mate.

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1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

Jammy sod lol. Only playing just get out and enjoy it mate.

i do have some big hills surrounding me as well so if things get a bit marginal i can always hike up there and continue the fun and games.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
4 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Could that be the warmer waters in the channel coming into play?

Just think it`s it take on the milder sector being mixed out which is much more southern than what, let`s say the ECM is suggesting. It`s easy to see why sticking a forecast out must be a right mare tbh.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Bizarre chart from the Arpege for Sat, Snow in France and Midlands above. That must be some weird mild sector in between.

 

arpegeeur-2-81.png

It's called standard SE/S England slap in the face winter weather. We often experience this with PM flows from the NW. Dry as a bone here or just cold rain then as the air crosses the channel they end up with snow like the north of England/Scot/Wales/NI and we end up in no man's land

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

It's called standard SE/S England slap in the face winter weather. We often experience this with PM flows from the NW. Dry as a bone here or just cold rain then as the air crosses the channel they end up with snow like the north of England/Scot/Wales/NI and we end up in no man's land

But we only got 4 or 5 inches (level, big drifts admittedly) from last winters E'ly and you got nearly a foot down there.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Just think it`s it take on the milder sector being mixed out which is much more southern than what, let`s say the ECM is suggesting. It`s easy to see why sticking a forecast out must be a right mare tbh.

I think its going to come down to now casting for many, some folk are going to get a surprise and some are going to be left gutted. then its all eyes toward the end of the year and beyond.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

It's called standard SE/S England slap in the face winter weather. We often experience this with PM flows from the NW. Dry as a bone here or just cold rain then as the air crosses the channel they end up with snow like the north of England/Scot/Wales/NI and we end up in no man's land

It`s this little B which is just enough to draw up some milder air.

 

ECM1-72.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But we only got 4 or 5 inches (level, big drifts admittedly) from last winters E'ly and you got nearly a foot down there.

Not where I am by the Thames had about the same as you though inland had triple the amount

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
11 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Super cold evening here -10c , clear skies and 50cm of lying snow. Back now from a few beers. Saturday looks like turning in to a forecasters nightmare over in Blighty. Again the fax at 84t holds the fronts back a little longer and the milder section looks to be squeezed down south as a low pressure centre forms over Ireland near the triple point and the flow backs further north. The forecast snow model and timing could well change again for the weekend..  Not had any updates today from the team but will speak to them in the morning but GFS model at around day 10 seems to show what our singular model has been showing for a few days and that's a sinking of the low and pressure rises to the NW.  Just a bit of interest in the Arctic High showing on the ECM today. Maybe one to watch on the next few runs.

C

Yup latest fax more like ukmo at 72 hours than ecm or gfs!!had that low not been as deep on ecm i reckon it would look more like ukmo!!over to the 18zs!!

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
20 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Not really a big surprise.. this weekend is done, not worth worrying about unless you’re living up a mountain somewhere in Scotland.

Christmas period is the next milestile to watch.. 

Is that a promise? Living 230m up a hillside in NE Scotland I'm coming to find you if I don't get snow on Sat. 

Forecasts from Met, BBC etc for my location currently vary in timing, duration, intensity and composition (rain/sleet/snow). So for obvious reasons I'm going to just 'wait and see'. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
22 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Not really a big surprise.. this weekend is done, not worth worrying about unless you’re living up a mountain somewhere in Scotland.

Christmas period is the next milestile to watch.. 

Going by what the strat guys are saying, I wouldn't be bothering with Christmas cold, end of Jan early Feb is probably the most likeliest opportunity for a nationwide event.  

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But we only got 4 or 5 inches (level, big drifts admittedly) from last winters E'ly and you got nearly a foot down there.

That was the one time us southerners knew what it felt like to have the most snow lol!  

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3 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Is that a promise? Living 230m up a hillside in NE Scotland I'm coming to find you if I don't get snow on Sat. 

Forecasts from Met, BBC etc for my location currently vary in timing, duration, intensity and composition (rain/sleet/snow). So for obvious reasons I'm going to just 'wait and see'. 

You must be naileded on for a good dumping up your way?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Not if you've been watching the clusters it isn't ………..

More importantly it’s on the mean as well this isn’t looking like no transient feature maybe it will even retrograde.

5AA427D1-141F-41E6-B02F-6EA3BB80AB02.thumb.jpeg.a8dd483670285148f57e5cfd5b875af1.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The UKMO 72 was I think the only model that had a slight SE draw into the front...

D65CCAA3-133D-4FDD-9267-827B2F2548D8.thumb.png.cc2e4a8364342eec10f26c44c958ea6e.png

True but it`s the same UKMO which has been just as confused as us recently.

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

So it looks as though we will be getting cold rain again here in the south east. Vile. There have been tentative signals for high pressure build into Iceland for some time on and off on the models and again it is showing for around the 20th. What assurances do we have, if any, that the atlantic wont persist and negate each "try" by pumping lows our way which is exactly what has happened this time round? 

Edited by snowfish1
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The UKMO 72 was I think the only model that had a slight SE draw into the front...

D65CCAA3-133D-4FDD-9267-827B2F2548D8.thumb.png.cc2e4a8364342eec10f26c44c958ea6e.png

Has the ukmo been right more often than not over the ecm at 72 hours!!!!i hope its got a good record cos i think that ukmo chart would give snow more widely!!

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
7 minutes ago, More Snow said:

You must be naileded on for a good dumping up your way?

BBC has sleet and rain from 9am Sat onwards right into Sunday, Met has it dry up until 6pm, so a 9hr difference just in starting time. For now I'm staying highly sceptical. 

Yr. No (so ECM) sides with BBC and although showing mainly sleet it's maxing the temp out at 1-2C.

Edited by Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Not where I am by the Thames had about the same as you though inland had triple the amount

Southend-on-sea had 9 inches.

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1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

BBC has sleet and rain from 9am Sat onwards right into Sunday, Met has it dry up until 6pm, so a 9hr difference just in starting time. For now I'm staying highly sceptical. 

my Snaw starts at 9pm on Friday apparently until 1pm Saturday then sleet until late Sunday morning. as ive said earlier it will come to now casting.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Snow!!
  • Location: Isle of Wight
1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Met Office graphics for Saturday's snow risk not too dissimilar to the Aperge.

mo1.jpg

mo2.jpg

mo3.jpg

a1.jpg

a2.jpg

a3.jpg

To be honest the graphics from both the BBC and Met Office of late are very poor in quality. 

Looking closely at these Met Office stills it almost looks like they've painted the areas of snow on manually to their graphics from what they are seeing (as an average snow area) from all the different models (GFSECM, UKMO etc) rather than relying on their own model prediction.

Ideas?

Edited by wightwootton
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
44 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Not really a big surprise.. this weekend is done, not worth worrying about unless you’re living up a mountain somewhere in Scotland.

Christmas period is the next milestile to watch.. 

Agreed, no surprise at all. In fact, the only surprise was those that were ramping up a scenario that never looked plausible. 

The high realistically looked too flabby, continental Europe never looked that cold and looking to the west was like telegraphing a David Haye "Haymaker" - the Atlantic was (and is) winding up the big right hand. 

If a sleety wet mix for a few hours on Saturday is your thing (usual high ground caveats apply), then fair enough, but things look wet and mild after that. 

GFS deserves an apology. 

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