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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

A repeat of Saturday - a UK battleground between normal rain and cold rain!!!!

ECH1-216_rbs8.GIF

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

A repeat of Saturday - a UK battleground between normal rain and cold rain!!!!

ECH1-216_rbs8.GIF

, so exciting!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

This is really a warped game being set by the ECM. Oh no not Saturday, Friday the 21st.

 

ECH0-216.png

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
2 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

with respect......pardon? 

I suggest you treat them like a form of haiku poetry - works for me! 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
19 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

This is really a warped game being set by the ECM. Oh no not Saturday, Friday the 21st.

 

ECH0-216.png

Don't like the ecm. We will always be on the wrong side of the block. Much prefer gfs at the moment but no doubt it will be wrong. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Don't like the ecm. We will always be on the wrong side of the block. Much prefer gfs at the moment but no doubt it will be wrong. 

Me neither and what is more annoying is that it is right more times than it`s wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Me neither and what is more annoying is that it is right more times than it`s wrong.

Indeed. Especially when showing crud charts lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. Especially when showing crud charts lol. 

But at least we are not in a Bartlett scenario.

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Met Office graphics for Saturday's snow risk not too dissimilar to the Aperge.

mo1.jpg

mo2.jpg

mo3.jpg

a1.jpg

a2.jpg

a3.jpg

Yh BBC and Met have me down for a few hours of snow before the rain comes in. Cant see it personally looking at the charts i think we will be just on the wrong side. But time for corrections either way.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
40 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

with respect......pardon? 

With 'due respect'...

"Pardon you"..??!!!

i can do a diagram/dynamical overview..

Of ebbing and sway..of differencial- sequences, of how heights of a certain character...can be established!!??.

To which operationals are pocking at..atm.

Trough-and developing lps-and other modeled energy spasms...

Are highlighting..the NON PROG/DECIPHER..as that exact.

!!!

Edit:..

The usuall 1 way juncture of default..and reverse(to mobile driven)..

Are as far away as perceivable!!

Ps.stick 2 ya beer..an kebabs m8...

There obviously having that trans fat/poison overload....

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

BBC here - cold rain with a few sleet flakes in, so their location forecasts certainly aren't going off the Arpege, if anyone really needed confirmation of that!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

BBC here - cold rain with a few sleet flakes in, so their location forecasts certainly aren't going off the Arpege, if anyone really needed confirmation of that!

Not really a big surprise.. this weekend is done, not worth worrying about unless you’re living up a mountain somewhere in Scotland.

Christmas period is the next milestile to watch.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BBC here - cold rain with a few sleet flakes in, so their location forecasts certainly aren't going off the Arpege, if anyone really needed confirmation of that!

Better than me, I have just rain on the BBC. The Met Office graphics do show snow for me though on Saturday evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Not really a big surprise.. this weekend is done, not worth worrying about unless you’re living up a mountain somewhere in Scotland.

Christmas period is the next milestile to watch.. 

Agree, i got slated for stating that a week ago, i think more in terms of the 28th onwards for snow and cold, i think dry and cold is still possible for xmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Not really a big surprise.. this weekend is done, not worth worrying about unless you’re living up a mountain somewhere in Scotland.

Christmas period is the next milestile to watch.. 

Have to say I’m not convinced about the few hours of snowfall it has for here. I think areas further north and east could do OK for a brief time though.

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

Better than me, I have just rain on the BBC. The Met Office graphics do show snow for me though on Saturday evening.

Just shows how unsure they are. Still go either way but its certain to be followed by rain. Suprised to see the good old Snow Symbol for here though.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Bizarre chart from the Arpege for Sat, Snow in France and Midlands above. That must be some weird mild sector in between.

 

arpegeeur-2-81.png

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They currently have me down for 14 hours of snaw followed for by and 15 hours of sleet. that is for town centre and im slightly higher and a mile from town so could easy be all snaw for me. i do agree with most on here that the next interest is xmas period and into the new year and im really looking forward to watching things unfold as we move toward this time zone on the models.

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Just now, Stuie W said:

Bizarre chart from the Arpege for Sat, Snow in France and Midlands above. That must be some weird mild sector in between.

 

arpegeeur-2-81.png

Could that be the warmer waters in the channel coming into play?

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