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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

GFS 12Z now shows 3 hours of snow saturday for my location. This transitioning to ice pellets and then rain. DP remains sub-zero untill 15:00. UPGRADE!

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
11 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

What doesn’t look good about it? Any charts to backup that viewpoint?

Maybe the OP forgot to say not good if you're a fan of flat zonal weather? 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
18 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

GFS 12Z now shows 3 hours of snow saturday for my location. This transitioning to ice pellets and then rain. DP remains sub-zero untill 15:00. UPGRADE!

It looks like 0 hours to me with no accumulations - accumulations 50 miles NE of me.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It looks like 0 hours to me with no accumulations - accumulations 50 miles NE of me.

Cant really be pinning it down at this far out - but at least you have altitude.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
40 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Actually this wouldn't be a bad position to be in 2 days before Christmas, GFS T264:

image.thumb.jpg.302cf9a4aa4c8d65c62a7decf29892fb.jpg

 

Nice NE to N flow setting in with that  - Christmas Eve looking well festively chilly even though theres a lack of ppn.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

GEFS 12z - could spring one or 2 surprises just after christmas, well before the main course, cold zonality and runners are on the menu.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS 12z - could spring one or 2 surprises just after christmas, well before the main course, cold zonality and runners are on the menu.

If we get some cold air runners could be quite the turnout.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS 12z - could spring one or 2 surprises just after christmas, well before the main course, cold zonality and runners are on the menu.

this was a very good 'runner', heaviest snow I think I've seen, daytime lying snow

archives-1998-1-5-12-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

this was a very good 'runner', heaviest snow I think I've seen, daytime lying snow

archives-1998-1-5-12-0.png

Don't remember getting anything from that in West Midlands but then again, i gave up between around that time and 09 so i dont remember every event.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't remember getting anything from that in West Midlands but then again, i gave up between around that time and 09 so i dont remember every event.

same with me and Feb '96, don't remember it

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

same with me and Feb '96, don't remember it

How could you have missed out on Feb 96, it wasn't elevation dependent and was a wide area from West of London with the exact middle of it through Birmingham, the fact that Blackpool got 1ft suggests it should have been even better further North and the area should have been straight through Stafford.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Para going for it again I seegfseu-0-204_utn4.png

That looks like March 2013!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Like a dog with a bone John..

Hope EC improves tonight..

All goes a bit wrong after that, but I'm confident of we got to that 204hr chart it would evolve more favourably than that.

The good news is the signs are starting to appear in the high res part of the run now 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

If I had a £1 for every time I saw the cold air at this distance... Just shows that when surrounded by water you need everything to play the game and that Azores we crave in summer still gives you a kick in the proverbial`s at this time of year.

 

ECM0-96.gif

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Carving out...the ops..are at the dawn..of carve...

Retro...or rises..have optional avenues!!..

And phasing is on...

Greenland assumptions...are wide and variable...

And a highly likely option...back..or front door!!!

ECH1-144.gif

Don`t forget the trap door we normally get...

EDIT: You have to applaud that Scandi high though, sterling efforts recently.

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Don`t forget the trap door we normally get...

Thats elevated...this time..via wave and dynamical destruct!!..

Which is good 2 be able 2 say...

The clamp is tightening!!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Well after spending a majority of my posts today banging on about height rises in the Atlantic, the GFS goes and blows up the Scandi high like a balloon

A31593EE-6F5F-412C-B119-14954B19E361.thumb.png.67bf5ecd02e85dc435aabd0dbf2f28bf.png

Doesn’t really fit in with the expected pattern going forward through that timeframe but there we have it, not zonal.

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