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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I'm not going to post charts, but for the record. The 12z so far, ICON, UKMO, GFSand GEM have the Atlantic well through by Sunday morning. 

Which we all have known for some days would be the outcome.  Yes, some may see a snowflake on Saturday, not denying that, but let's move forward from analysing a non event (most have to be honest) and let's look for possibilities in the run up to Christmas, and probabilities for the new year. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Just now, Seasonality said:

Curiouser and curiouser. 

gfseu-0-162.png

Indeed lots of changes in a short space of time which imo is a good thing .Hopefully things on the up !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm not going to post charts, but for the record. The 12z so far, ICON, UKMO, GFSand GEM have the Atlantic well through by Sunday morning. 

Which we all have known for some days would be the outcome.  Yes, some may see a snowflake on Saturday, not denying that, but let's move forward from analysing a non event (most have to be honest) and let's looks for possibilities in the run up to Christmas, and probabilities for the new year. 

Just because it is a non-event for you doesn't mean other people can't stop posting about the event. You can't control when and what types of weather people decide to post and discuss.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Still looking a bit too flat across N. America as of +174 which is a shame, could still become the best run from this model we've seen in a while though. Looks like a move toward the past few FV3 runs.

Off for a run now - happy model watching (hopefully)!

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

There should be a renewed attempt at ridging from the Atlantic at around T264 or so if it follows earlier runs of both itself and its FV3 brother. This time the overall synoptic is more conducive to a proper GH though.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Wow!

GFS develops quite a nastly little system Saturday night into Sunday. That same system no where to be seen on the 12z ICON. 

F5C3A398-FBD8-4FE8-BD0B-7EC23B0F4B3B.thumb.jpeg.ff77a2b4add4c2747f8cb6a93a70840e.jpegADA74AF6-A418-4FC1-87CF-614811DF2DA9.thumb.jpeg.adadfa6f4e1d4fe3a017dde898cf49ce.jpeg

Such vast differences at just 3 days out.. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Hello hello hello. What have we here then? 

gfseu-0-216 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It's why I posted it 

Apologies, I read your post in a sarcastic tone that probably wasn’t meant that way!

Good to see the GFS now showing the height rises around the 20th too, not exactly right at the end of the run either! Models starting to hone in on the AAM spike others have been mentioning? 

DC5F2666-40DD-4965-9131-1E4C317CA86B.thumb.png.a8c118d9a2b96956cab0fdbb3691e282.png

Still expecting these height rises in that time period to be fairly transient especially once the SSW gets underway and we see the vortex displacing, it’ll mess up the pattern for a while so I suspect any HLB that sets up around the Christmas period will have it’s days numbered, for a time..

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

4052310C-E33B-467B-B1D8-722E22A91EF1.thumb.png.9ce226364420f61e9f2eabb235e704ef.png

GFS following the FV3 with height rises around Xmas. 

New trend ? 

Hope so

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

!!!..

The rising of heights are looking odds on format ...4 me..

Going into the feative season...

The vortex an the jet are cumbersome...and rises will find ample access..for plot...

A notable block..would be my thoughts...then a draft of colder inflow....again xmas period the door opening of sorts!!!

gfsnh-0-252.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
15 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

There should be a renewed attempt at ridging from the Atlantic at around T264 or so if it follows earlier runs of both itself and its FV3 brother. This time the overall synoptic is more conducive to a proper GH though.

Nearly...

gfsnh-0-264.png?12

 

So a definite trend (as predicted by the MJO/Tropical Pacific guys) being picked up.

However, I've seen the GFS do this over the years for a few runs only to drop it faster than a used prophylactic, so we will see.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not the worst place to find a 1040mb HP? Could even be the start of something:

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

That run does not look good - next please!

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