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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

The other encouraging thing in recent runs of the FV3 has been the tendency towards another warming phase through Western Siberia towards the end of the run - yet another shot at the vortex. We have below the peak of the first wave of warming

gfsnh-10-264.png?6

Then this secondary bout of warming (also visible on the 0z):

gfsnh-10-384.png?6

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted

GFS para strat charts now going for an initial warming followed up by another warming a few days later see below. 

Initial warming.             Screenshot_20181212-121435.thumb.jpg.236306a75e7cc9baf42f7bcbb54a87fc.jpg

 

Relaxation slightly         Screenshot_20181212-121443.thumb.jpg.2f4cb3bf9f3e08bd0ff0f3b8ff4ce19d.jpg

 

 

Renewed burst.           Screenshot_20181212-121452.thumb.jpg.7840a97c83ac595fde1e53b326311eff.jpg

 

 

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Something to keep an eye on... probably get flattened in GFS Fi though

7055B8B3-EC92-4490-87F0-BA93FB59D537.png

Fits the forecast mould....but uncertainty is creeping in now with so much NWP evidence sticking to a relatively strong trough and ineffective blocking. 

Hmmmm - but for now - "stay on target!"

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted
49 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Para going for it again:

gfsnh-0-276.png?6

Another one broadly in line...

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coldwinter Enthusiast

coldwinter

Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
Posted
2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Fits the forecast mould....but uncertainty is creeping in now with so much NWP evidence sticking to a relatively strong trough and ineffective blocking. 

Hmmmm - but for now - "stay on target!"

Met Office outlook now mentioning the 'small chance of colder temps with snow 'perhaps to lower levels for a time in north east', so there must be a little support in house for the GFSP it would seem. Good stuff

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Met Office outlook now mentioning the 'small chance of colder temps with snow 'perhaps to lower levels for a time in north east', so there must be a little support in house for the GFSP it would seem. Good stuff

Think you hit the nail on head with the small chance of cold before New year ..

Too much energy across the Atlantic as it stands..

Ups quoted the wrong post, sorry.

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted
22 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Fits the forecast mould....but uncertainty is creeping in now with so much NWP evidence sticking to a relatively strong trough and ineffective blocking. 

Hmmmm - but for now - "stay on target!"

You could do with finding a replacement quote that doesn't precede disaster .

Never underestimate the capacity of NWP modelling to be obtuse in the face of momentum transfer processes... I've been finding in recent years that it always seems to take just a bit longer for them to catch on that you'd think possible such that just as you start to shift expectations, they make the move. Happened to me with the easterly incursion this coming week actually - I came to suspect that the cold air would probably stay just out of reach to our east, and the very next morning the adjustments to increased trough disruption got underway .

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Mizzle Community Regular

Mizzle

Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
Posted
3 hours ago, c00ps said:

A 500 plus mile line of snow and the only place with rain is the SE.... I need to move

But maybe, like me, your snow shield will move with you!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Always been a case of waiting until post Xmas really, though, hasn't it?

One thing I have learned though, is that ignoring all the temptations to 'expect upgrades' has undeniably  beneficial effects on both blood pressure and resting heart rate.:santa-emoji:

That said, as soon as the first snowflake drifts past the window, the epinephrine kicks in!

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted
2 hours ago, shaky said:

That scandi high is further west for 1pm friday on gfs 06z compared to last nights 12z for same time!!uppers colder aswell!!yes it wont make much of a difference in the end but could.increse snow chances for a few saturday

Seconded, shaky. The GFS 06Z has the magic -5*C 850 hPa line as far West as Eastern Wales for a time on Friday night...

81EBF4FD-4396-401D-B357-416CB203C661.thumb.png.665766209bdf3e7b3d6f7030e5c22db6.png

...therefore maybe enough could air for the front to run into to give a brief transient fall of snow for some fairly low level areas of the West and East Midlands. Particularly Northern parts. Not something to totally rule out. 

DF6124B6-3451-44AB-BA4C-B34D06EC9EFE.thumb.jpeg.c613c4e5e862ef2dbf0dd51ee4b5adbe.jpeg

Clearly the higher someone’s elevation and the further North and East you are, the better at seeing more in the way of wintry weather. But even a transient spell of wet falling snow would be (personally), so much more appealing than the whole front being just soggy wet stuff. Settling snow is awesome and all, and it’s what make landscapes look all magical, however falling snow I admit is just as exciting. 

Just some slight extra Westward shifts and a touch more of a negative tilt to that approaching Low on Saturday could just tip things a little bit more towards something more wintry. Literally going around every cafe in the U.K. clutching at straws. One snowflake even would do, lol! 

Whatever happens, I suspect some of us may end up sitting next to our windows with popcorn, hoping to see some pretty little white thing. ❄️

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted (edited)

I’m assuming that this is a good sign, I’m still a rookie when it comes to strat stuff

C5E8DD6E-D919-4C9C-B568-10C165D18E97.jpeg

Sorry just noticed its for 60 north not 65, does it make much of a difference??

Edited by fromey
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Edited.Actually its similar to gfs 6z the icon 12 z,still odd tho lol

Edited by swfc
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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted

Still quite a difference with the models   Icon  only brings snow showers to the North( heavy)   and possibly  the eastern part of the front   The Aprege  gives The Midlands North    Snow for the Majority of Saturday     still to be resolved 

arpege-1-80-0.png?12-16  iconeu_uk1-1-81-0.png?12-16

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, fromey said:

I’m assuming that this is a good sign, I’m still a rookie when it comes to strat stuff

C5E8DD6E-D919-4C9C-B568-10C165D18E97.jpeg

Sorry just noticed its for 60 north not 65, does it make much of a difference??

Yes, it is, I think it's pretty much accepted now that a displacement SSW will occur shortly after Christmas.  Wind reversal at 60N is what that will officially be judged on, requires a stronger reversal of winds than at 65N. 

The question then becomes whether that will be followed by a split in the strat vortex, or it gets pretty much annihilated - we really need to see one of these outcomes to get the January most here are hoping for.

I will be watching the FV3 for strat developments, it looks already more consistent run for run than the GFS, probably due to being high resolution ~13km right through to day 16.  Both FV3 runs this morning showed another bout of warming right at the end of the run - very interesting times, re the prospects for early new year.

Edited by Mike Poole
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

And to complicate things even more gfs 12z pushes a cheeky little low threw at 84 hours

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

hgt300.png hgt300.png

The upper trough is less well-rounded on the 12z (right). That'll reduce it's capacity to flatten the blocking high to the east while opening a door to some retrogression toward Greenland.

h500slp.png h500slp.png

Note the increased heights north of Iceland and into Greenland. Slight yet significant going forward... whether GFS can resolve that or not, remains to be seen!

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warrenb Seasoned

warrenb

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
Posted (edited)

Well this GFS is going to be different, jet running out south at 150 and we have a cut off low, plenty of height building to the north as well

This could end up witht he sinking low into the continent

Edited by warrenb
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

The 12Z GEM goes with frontal snow for Saturday from the M4 northwards, its only Weds, so still a long way to go with this setup.

  image.thumb.png.67979eba93a2c9decc43d94a978afc44.png

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Well this GFS is going to be different, jet running out south at 150 and we have a cut off low, plenty of height building to the north as well

Curiouser and curiouser. 

gfseu-0-162.png

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted (edited)

Striking that all models in the medium range so far (UKMO, GEM, GFS, DWD) have considerably higher pressure to the east tonight than in previous runs.

My Spidy senses are starting to twitch

Edited by Johnp
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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

h500slp.png h500slp.png

Classic GFS; it has the higher heights to the north, but refuses to sink the trough anyway .

Yeah okay - to be fair to it, that would be pretty fast for such a process unfolding. Good signs going forward though .

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