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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
4 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Gutted I missed it... don't suppose anyone has a link for that forcast? 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/46532033

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted (edited)

If you take the 19th December as a benchmark in terms of forecast reliability it gives a good trend as to what Christmas day could bring. By then the Atlantic is still in control but with faint signs of height rises to our West/Northwest.

The problem is by then there is still a remarkable lack of cold to our North. Look at the uppers! For mid December it looks more akin to early Autumn.

This new climate of increased blocking is all very well but the lack of proper cold to our North could in future mean 'the  north wind doth blow and we shall have.....erm rain' ☺

Indeed you'll struggle to find a chart in our history that shows such mild uppers to our North in Mid December.

Look North / Northwest / Northeast. ...no cold!

Edited by January Snowstorm
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The dartboard LPS- is quickly becoming my fav-scope on mid-term-modeling...its right at the atlantics achilies heel....(base point greenland )and as again with now well talked about upper dynamics...its another sign post blow 4 the atlantic....as well as the layered vortex..

Everything is begining to rock...an- ROLL !!!!

Displaced PV lobes, extreme weather incoming

 

BFTP

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
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Posted
5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

If you take the 19th December as a benchmark in terms of forecast reliability it gives a good trend as to what Christmas day could bring. By then the Atlantic is still in control but with faint signs of height rises to our West/Northwest.

The problem is by then there is still a remarkable lack of cold to our North. Look at the uppers! For mid December it looks more akin to early Autumn.

This new climate of increased blocking is all very well but the lack of proper cold to our North could in future mean 'the  north wind doth blow and we shall have.....erm rain' ☺

M8...it a-both elapsing...and forwardind motion in the overheads...the bottling is looking to collapse..and spillage is of watch and note....

Things could look very interesting even this time nxt week...and a whole new set of data and formats could be looked upon..

And thers every chance of that ...imo !!

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, tight isobar said:

M8...it a-both elapsing...and forwarding-motion in the overheads...the bottling is looking to collapse..and spillage is of watch and note....

Things could look very interesting even this time nxt week...and a whole new set of data and formats could be looked upon..

And thers every chance of that ...imo !!

 

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted

I know we have all the background signals and what not but when was the last time we actually saw a decent run? Feels like an eternity, just half hearted attempts at ridges being bowled away by low pressure constantly. 

 

Please weather gods just one chart a day be nice. 

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
30 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

EPS not as certain as the ICON re: a more widespread event, fairly muted snow signal from the latest ECM away from Northern locals.

Not only that, I have seen the ICON generated on three different sites, all at a 7KM resolution, and they all show stark differences in precipitation-type at exactly the same time-frame.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

C-mon..its worth another post..

Upper therms...burning with a fever !!!!

@bulldozer...too- wendy house !!!!!!

 

She just gotta split...

Its an evaporation..like a hot knife in butter......

gfsnh-10-336.png

Edited by tight isobar
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

C-mon..its worth another post..

Upper therms...burning with a fever !!!!

@bulldozer...too- wendy house !!!!!!

 

She just gotta split...

Its an evaporation..like a hot knife in butter......

gfsnh-10-336.png

Reversal down to what looks like at least 5, possibly 7mb now.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

I know we have all the background signals and what not but when was the last time we actually saw a decent run? Feels like an eternity, just half hearted attempts at ridges being bowled away by low pressure constantly. 

 

Please weather gods just one chart a day be nice. 

Indeed, what will we see first, brexit or a negative NAO?

Far FI spawns a hideous chart that wouldn't have been out of place in December 2015....

image.thumb.png.a9d2b8308bc673498e0da939f6381bc4.png

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

I know we have all the background signals and what not but when was the last time we actually saw a decent run? Feels like an eternity, just half hearted attempts at ridges being bowled away by low pressure constantly. 

 

Please weather gods just one chart a day be nice. 

Steady! We're only 11 days into winter.  

OK it is possible that some areas might get some transient snow this weekend, as others have posted, my focus has been on the longer term, and, yes, that does mean post SSW. 

Using GFS 18z, 10mbar temps at T276 and T384

image.thumb.jpg.3c6295c04526ec3cff5b4d0709502b2e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c68aee30bd26a9fc294f209aa72cc878.jpg

It is what happens next that will deliver, or not, a spectacular winter for the UK. Watch this space.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Aaaahhhh... that's better. A decent ridge developing in the N Atlantic by D11, threatening Greenland. Clusters 1/2. Where next? 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018121112_276.

Finally something a little more substantive to track all the way down to +0 hopefully! GFS runs have been hinting at Atlantic height rises to Greenland for the past few runs though fairly tentatively - I suspect given GDSM signals that signal will only increase in the coming days. Watch the blocking grow and the Atlantic shrink!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The Ukmo isn’t as odd as it looks judging by eps cluster 2.  Absolutely nothing is certain for next week! 

Already a hefty change with improved scandi height rise signal on 18z at 156 compared to 12z.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Yes I came to post a little remark about GFS 18z ensembles before reading the above comments, there is a cluster that supports a UKMO type solution.

Certainly not cut and dried that the Atlantic is blasting through as per the other operational output.

Edited by Mucka
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Where on earth did this come from at T138 on the FV3

image.thumb.jpg.3d0c35d1c2f89f09e4fe5b36ea495650.jpg

One for the bin, I think!

Edit: I can't even see the UK at T186:

image.thumb.jpg.5b2759c41d921886b5ab4f1909ee0f19.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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wightwootton Contributor

wightwootton

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Snow!!
  • Location: Isle of Wight
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Where on earth did this come from at T138 on the FV3

image.thumb.jpg.3d0c35d1c2f89f09e4fe5b36ea495650.jpg

One for the bin, I think!

Edit: I can't even see the UK at T186:

image.thumb.jpg.5b2759c41d921886b5ab4f1909ee0f19.jpg

Is this Mike though telling us the potential of the block that is developing to our East ? A deep low of 955 mb's marches in and comes to grinding stop off NW Scotland.

Edited by wightwootton
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JBMWeatherForever Aficionado

JBMWeatherForever

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man
Posted

Latest Fax chart has the block further west again. I still think there is time for notable revisions in the next 72 hours, when the Atlantic actually hits the block. Its then that we could still see revisions in output, with more enhanced trough disruption for the weekend still very possible, and with a subsequent positive knock on affect for the Christmas period.  

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

Not long now until it's Snowmageddon time! 384h does count!

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

UKMO other then a 'really' deep low at 144h isn't the worst.. Good chance we may see a ridge nudge north in the Atlantic supported by the GFS next week. Will this be sustained is up for question though far from horrible mild weather ( Wednesday 7-9c for most).. Cold zonality or a Nwly as the front finally clears is possible... Doesn't happen on this run but can't see it being long before we look west! 

 GFS FL showing what I were thinking for next week with a slightly less relentless Atlantic low pressures systems flattening it then will be alot better as a result..

 

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted (edited)

METO

Cumbria Saturday 

 ....... Potential for a very wintry day although details uncertain at this stage. Risk of southeasterly gales or severe gales and heavy snow, giving blizzard conditions. Milder later. Freezing level 300m but rising above summits by evening.

(Im Out ? )

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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