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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Yh i agree but at present the models arent showing it. Also isnt there a lag effect before the effects are felt.

True. A lag in the effects but also a lag in the models picking up developments. My understanding is that we just need to be patient until around late December/early January. The intial strat warming may not be great for us but the predicted further warming should deliver.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
25 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Day 10 ECM, not without interest with a possible ridge building our west and heights building to the NE also. I think we need to extends our hopes past the day 10 period, which of course many already have. Dangerous game though, seen many winters washed away with the zonal train but I think this winter is different, I don’t see the zonal train lasting too long the vortex is in tatters already.

11B743A4-D084-4A82-B74B-046DDBF496DE.png

How many times have we heard this over the last few days?...in another day or so's time at post day 10 you'll probably see another low pressure barrelling from off the Eastern Seaboard south of Greenland. Potential looked 'good' post at what we're seeing now at 198z...but hasn't come to fruition thereafter!

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

How many times have we heard this over the last few days?...in another day or so's time at post day 10 you'll probably see another low pressure barrelling from off the Eastern Seaboard south of Greenland. Potential looked 'good' post at what we're seeing now at 198z...but hasn't come to fruition!

So your ignoring all the signals that point to a cold spell being on the cards at the end of the year.Even the METO mention snow in their extended output.They very rarely do that unless they have a high degree of confidence 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

How many times have we heard this over the last few days?...in another day or so's time at post day 10 you'll probably see another low pressure barrelling from off the Eastern Seaboard south of Greenland. Potential looked 'good' post at what we're seeing now at 198z...but hasn't come to fruition thereafter!

Agreed, I’m as sceptical as you but if there’s no hope then why are we all here? Got to find something to generate a modicum of interest

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

No time to look at anything for longer than 10;minutes this evening.  Quick rush through the runs and UKMO 144... Where did that come from!? Complete change with that unexpected ridge,  Doesn’t look like it has any support but let’s see in the next 24 hours if it can muster some.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

I'm not ignoring any signals towards the future towards post Xmas, what I'm referring to is the ecm 12z's like to like at day 10 (which I've been looking at for the last 5/6 days)...presently we don't seem to be getting anywhere but what I here is typical of moderate el nino conditions and more of a back loaded winter is anticipated. Just discussing what I see currently on the 12's...

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Agreed, I’m as sceptical as you but if there’s no hope then why are we all here? Got to find something to generate a modicum of interest

I'm sure Sigmund Freud would have had more than a few ideas?

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
35 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The updated fax chart for Friday shows the block to be stronger and the fronts struggling more when compared to this morning's chart for the same time. 

fax72s.gif

fax84s.gif

Yes, about a 50mile correction further west and allows the 528 dam line to make landfall .

C

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yes, about a 50mile correction further west and allows the 528 dam line to make landfall .

C

I knew you had a soft spot for East Anglia...

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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,

I know this is a “ hunt for cold” thread but why lose sleep over things that keep changing.

Today in Norfolk was 5C lovey clear blue sky, frost still in shaded areas until the afternoon. 

Why is no one happy with this?  I sure am. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

Very much appreciated @Bring Back1962-63 During your busy day !

Knew the guys on here would appreciate such a super post to whet the cold appetite ! Top man 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
9 minutes ago, slater said:

I know this is a “ hunt for cold” thread but why lose sleep over things that keep changing.

Today in Norfolk was 5C lovey clear blue sky, frost still in shaded areas until the afternoon. 

Why is no one happy with this?  I sure am. 

 

It certainly beats the Atlantic muck we’ve already had plenty of recently that’s for sure and I’m quite happy with the dry weather. 

But... as the title suggests this threads about the hunt for cold not the hunt cool dry weather. The prize is the real cold which may be on offer further down the line. 

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

 Interesting, looks like UKMO extended builds pressure into the SE Britain . So a continental flow into England and Wales and a long Southerly flow into Scotland. A big difference in the models at 168t. Wish we could see further east. I would imagine the surface flow would be rather chilly especially towards southern Britain. Kind of ties in with the Met Office forecast  from a couple of days ago for this period with an increasing chance of frosts , especially in SE  England.

C

ukm2.2018121812.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
5 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Hi Steve,

Another lurker/learner here enjoying your posts. I like some shorter term focus as it still seems to me that surprises are possible: if nothing else, I have learnt that the weather remains a tad unpredictable

Thanks to ALL who share their knowledge here, much appreciated.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 hour ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

LOOKING GREAT FOR EXTENDED COLD SPELL IN EUROPE AND EAST CONUS FROM XMAS ONWARDS

I posted this on a US forum teleconnections thread and @Raythan asked me to copy it on here. It does relate to both US and UK/Euro patterns.  I shall not edit it and it was rather rushed.

At last, the AAM, torque and GWO charts have all just updated to Dec 9th and they are almost entirely in line with Tams' @Tamara and Tom's @Isotherm predictions and very good news for those hunting the main cold spell starting around or just after Christmas in the eastern US and a few days later in western Europe and the UK.

11a.thumb.PNG.dd6edaf715d0313354956a66b79f6049.PNG

Total GLAAM having fallen back is on the rise again.

11d.thumb.PNG.9e5d4df84dbaa0c93595758b7f69ffa5.PNG

Following the huge fall in the relative GLAAM tendency anomaly it's bouncing back equally strongly exactly as they predicted.

11c.thumb.PNG.afcd14cad2d9233a11748402c924b47b.PNG

FT rose and has gone +ve albeit briefly.

11b.thumb.PNG.92ca6ec558034d25b2097e2e43398e2b.PNG

The rising FT (from its low point) has led Global MT up (with the usual time lag) and that's another huge spring back and leading NAMT and EAMT upwards.

11e.thumb.PNG.23984b2e2c76bb0eed6544d4c0f8d6b7.PNG

The GWO did not go -ve while it has moved from phase 8 and has pushed through the COD and is re-emerging in phase 5, exactly as Tams predicted. It's set to rise at increased amplitude through phases 5 and 6. 

I've run out of time (incredibly busy this week) to say any more but with the MJO also playing ball (entering a higher amp run through phases 5/6/7) and the signs of a significant strat warming (if not a major SSW) make me feel really bullish about a significant cold spell - probably in Europe/UK and the eastern CONUS.  I'll leave it up to the rest of you to scrutinise the finer detail.  I wonder how quickly the models will "fully" factor this in?  David   

Top stuff..

Wish i had the time for such analysis!.

And my sentiments exactly...xmas=starting gun.

 

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28 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Hi Steve,

Another lurker/learner here enjoying your posts. I like some shorter term focus as it still seems to me that surprises are possible: if nothing else, I have learnt that the weather remains a tad unpredictable

Thanks to ALL who share their knowledge here, much appreciated.

Indeed - at this stage for many theres some snow on the cards - but sadly a lot of IMBY posts taint the thread- 

Anyway - exciting times for the weekend for some then a minimal lull ...

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Indeed - at this stage for many theres some snow on the cards - but sadly a lot of IMBY posts taint the thread- 

Anyway - exciting times for the weekend for some then a minimal lull ...

Steve have u seen latest icon!!looks better with a more south easterly undercut and low trying to undercut compared to 12z!!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

David has already nailed some of the GSDM analysis tonight. One chart to add. Here is mountain torque currently:

313519515_gltaum.90day(3).thumb.gif.8550e711f304ea3d1d20148c724aaec2.gif

Notice the huge spike in tendency at 30N associated with a +EAMT. As previously forecast this has arrived and initiated extension of the pacific jet - note this chart in the reliable demonstrating incoming systems onto the California coast on the back of that extension

ecmwf_z500_mslp_global_4.thumb.png.252300e3c8480bf74d0ed558c140208f.png

Overall calculated tendency has also spiked back up to previous levels in the autumn, which is impressive in a Nino year

1945885850_glcalctend_sig.90day(1).thumb.gif.fff40a28a01edf0e3ccaf088a9d5f41a.gif

And the MJO continues to be strong and progressive through the Indian Ocean

twc_gldobe_mjo_vp200.thumb.png.8a2ae043f881378ac44acface47e8f53.png

All of this continues to point only one way - a return of the blocking pattern as we move into the second half of the month. The only issue is - when? Signs on the extended GFS next week of the sort of mid atlantic progression that I have been thinking may happen

gfs-0-192.thumb.png.c61ab0f7958c068cd1e064f13f2f91c8.png

 - but NWP returns to default and powers the atlantic through afterwards. I'm not convinced. I think we are going to see a return of the block pretty soon after its shunting away this weekend, but via a rise to the west of the trough rather than a resurgent Euro to Scandy high. Previously 18th Dec was my guess - I might have to go a day or two later now but we will see. Fascinating watching.

 

 

 

Good post, yes hints of some amplification in the flow, isn't El Nino more conducive to amplification - which would aid mid atlantic height rises, its just whether these are strong enough to fend off energy spawned from off eastern USA seaboard, the PV is centred over the Pacific side - which is a helping factor, for allowing some form of height rises to our west. A deeper low pressure system would also help such a scenario surface. 

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve have u seen latest icon!!looks better with a more south easterly undercut and low trying to undercut compared to 12z!!

Yes that wave that develops would be potentially very good for Scotland & the north as it cuts off the flow from the south-

Updated snow chart

 

A9BADD5B-448E-4129-9896-8874FB9231B5.thumb.png.f3fdaad784d1908ad23398e74e946fb8.png

 

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