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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

It looks like its trying to upwell a split due to the trop 2 wave pattern, if a pattern as tame as this can do damage another 50000ft higher then we really are in business, looks like we just need one really good trop lead pattern and we could destroy it for the rest of winter.

gfsnh-0-384_xrj8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But is its stretching going to be in the right place?

 

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Dreadfully poor 12z GFS.  Zonal  from the weekend all the way to the end.

Thankfully it's just the GFS.

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But is its stretching going to be in the right place?

 

Netweather GFS Image

Yes - Scandinavian / Alasjkan ridge, you've nearly got a stonking trop pattern anyway at 384 that could be days way from delivering a stonking Easterly, that's without the damage it's doing to the strat to buy us more attempts if it fails.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - Scandinavian / Alasjkan ridge, you've nearly got a stonking trop pattern anyway at 384 that could be days way from delivering a stonking Easterly, that's without the damage it's doing to the strat to buy us more attempts if it fails.

Trop pattern at 384 on the GFS - it will be completely different in 6 hours.

We spend so much time looking at patterns, given our size and location even a great pattern hemispherically can be useless for the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Trop pattern at 384 on the GFS - it will be completely different in 6 hours.

We spend so much time looking at patterns, given our size and location even a great pattern hemispherically can be useless for the UK.

As long as we get a 2 wave pattern similar, then the detail is irrelevant.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Trop pattern at 384 on the GFS - it will be completely different in 6 hours.

We spend so much time looking at patterns, given our size and location even a great pattern hemispherically can be useless for the UK.

Sure but without a great pattern hemispherically the chances of the UK getting cold is reduced even further. 

Uptick in the AAM now showing on the latest chart

E72859F6-F610-4FF5-A7F0-62BFD190B170.thumb.jpeg.39bb83066cf34c47b9b5c0a6ecbe78db.jpeg

This I believe is why blocking is expected to return towards the Christmas period so seeing the GFS throw up blocked, colder patterns out in FI is a good sign that things are ticking along nicely - Sure the broad pattern will change re: UK surface conditions but the overall trend is what’s important at that range. 

From where i’m sitting, things are looking very good. Latest models/ENS also making less of next weeks Atlantic influence, too..

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Trop pattern at 384 on the GFS - it will be completely different in 6 hours.

We spend so much time looking at patterns, given our size and location even a great pattern hemispherically can be useless for the UK.

Tbh tho it's what it's showing.nothing is guaranteed but there would be zero discussion without that kind of input imo

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Sure but without a great pattern hemispherically the chances of the UK getting cold is reduced even further. 

Uptick in the AAM now showing on the latest chart

E72859F6-F610-4FF5-A7F0-62BFD190B170.thumb.jpeg.39bb83066cf34c47b9b5c0a6ecbe78db.jpeg

This I believe is why blocking is expected to return towards the Christmas period so seeing the GFS throw up blocked, colder patterns out in FI is a good sign that things are ticking along nicely - Sure the broad pattern will change re: UK surface conditions but the overall trend is what’s important at that range. 

From where i’m sitting, things are looking very good. Latest models/ENS also making less of next weeks Atlantic influence, too..

Yes, but we have seen high latitude blocking already produce zilch in terms of cold / snow. I've seen more snow from a poorer pattern and northerly toplers.

Sometimes feel we spend 4 months chasing a "pattern" and then come spring wonder what we spent the last four months doing!

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but we have seen high latitude blocking already produce zilch in terms of cold / snow. I've seen more snow from a poorer pattern and northerly toplers.

Sometimes feel we spend 4 months chasing a "pattern" and then come spring wonder what we spent the last four months doing!

 

It is the model discussion thread though RD so patterns or actual weather; if it's related that's the point surely?  I see many people posting about whats actually happening on the ground so to speak but a lot of people do find the pattern side of things interesting and you can learn a lot from looking at the bigger picture.

 

Edit: This isn't a dig or anything just thought I'd say I find it interesting overall.

Edited by P-M
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
2 minutes ago, P-M said:

 

It is the model discussion thread though RD so patterns or actual weather; if it's related that's the point surely?  I see many people posting about whats actually happening on the ground so to speak but a lot of people do find the pattern side of things interesting and you can learn a lot from looking at the bigger picture.

I agree.

Just think a 384 chart is straw clutching.

I think it is more the confidence with which some post regarding a "pattern". A little more reality would be good, it may not make the UK a Narnia.

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

I agree.

Just think a 384 chart is straw clutching.

Can't really argue against that to be fair lol but sometimes all we have are those straws.  

 

Lately though it seems we see stonker charts etc but when it comes to it nothing appears to materialise.  Something about this year though that appears different with the synoptics showing later on so who knows.  Fingers crossed that we get to see some RD's this year!   

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

All this talk of zonal rubbish, this is the UKs typical winter weather and it’s just a case of waiting and hoping for something to happen. There are lots to be positive about  as we move through Winter according to many professionals and premium models, and a possible SSW late Dec that is slowly gaining both strength and coming into a more reliable time frame . If the SSW impacts us then expect quick flips in Models in the next week or so - I’m a believer that the best time to have the perfect beast type Synoptics is Jan , and that’s looking a distinct possibility at the minute. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

gFS para at the 150 he mark looks pretty good to me if you look at the nhp.pv way to the east and not a lot to stop pressure rising towards Greenland -iceland later.looks ok longer term imo

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
24 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep pile of crap hope something changes fast.

Since when has the gfs operational run been accurate into Fl never.Why do people hang off one operational run,especially the gfs.Still it’s at the end of the year when the fun and games start,even the METO are mentioning snow now at the end of the year.,just have a little patience.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
8 minutes ago, swfc said:

gFS para at the 150 he mark looks pretty good to me if you look at the nhp.pv way to the east and not a lot to stop pressure rising towards Greenland -iceland later.looks ok longer term imo

Ye sit is interesting, especially the huge and deep low that comes in and then just sits on top of us

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
20 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but we have seen high latitude blocking already produce zilch in terms of cold / snow. I've seen more snow from a poorer pattern and northerly toplers.

Sometimes feel we spend 4 months chasing a "pattern" and then come spring wonder what we spent the last four months doing!

The first blocking event was in November, cold air wasn’t in place for it to really be beneficial, it was too early. 

This current block that’s in the process of forming now may yet yeild something of interest, though it doesn’t become established long enough for deeper cold to get into the UK, largely down to the dip in AAM as seen in the previous post - However it has gotten deep cold into the right places so when the next block develops it’ll be easier to tap into true cold  

I agree normally posting +384hr charts is straw clutching, but it’s a little different when they show a pattern we’re expecting it to show. 

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Ye sit is interesting, especially the huge and deep low that comes in and then just sits on top of us

I did say look towards Greenland later on.thsnks tho for your contribution

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Onto the ECM, let`s see what tonight`s take on the weekend is.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The UKMO , GFS and GEM are all different at day 6 .

The upstream pattern on the UKMO would likely hold the low back and extend a ridge ne ahead of it by day 7 .

The GFS is more progressive and the GEM looks like it’s been to Amsterdam for the day !

The good thing about these differences suggests some background noise which might save us from zonal dirge !

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO , GFS and GEM are all different at day 6 .

The upstream pattern on the UKMO would likely hold the low back and extend a ridge ne ahead of it by day 7 .

The GFS is more progressive and the GEM looks like it’s been to Amsterdam for the day !

The good thing about these differences suggests some background noise which might save us from zonal dirge !

Im glad you commented on UKMO Nick, my first reaction was positive, not to say its correct of course!

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

End of the Para shows a northerly but more importantly a big cool down and snow cover for most of Europe..once that SSW kicks in and delivers an Easterly it will have more balls this time! 

F790F40E-CBCF-4B5F-ACF3-531DD3F26D4A.png

1AA08E07-A81F-4F7B-9FE7-6FD8A7A271B6.png

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