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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, mountain shadow said:

What am I missing here Steve?

All I see are Iberian heights, a positively tilted Atlantic low and South Westerlies?

Steve will explain it better than i could for sure, but for me the Atlantic hits a brick wall and we see the az high ridging in the 'gap' ..

I'm not sure how credible it is because its a departure from anything we have seen in recent days, but for me its a potential game changer.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Steve will explain it better than i could for sure, but for me the Atlantic hits a brick wall and we see the az high ridging in the 'gap' ..

I'm not sure how credible it is because its a departure from anything we have seen in recent days, but for me its a potential game changer.

The only positive I see is the PV dropping into Scandi, if we could tap into that then bingo,

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What am I missing here Steve?

All I see are Iberian heights, a positively tilted Atlantic low and South Westerlies?

I got to admit, I was thinking similar.

That UKMO chart shows heights to our south over Spain, weakish heights to our east over Europe into Russia and a gert trough in the mid Atlantic, unable to easily move east past the meridian due to said heights.  Thus giving us an air flow from somewhere south of west.

Surely we want it the other way around, with heights in the Atlantic & a trough over Europe?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The only positive I see is the PV dropping into Scandi, if we could tap into that then bingo,

Shucks i really got to go out, hopefully others who see the potential will be able to comment further..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Certainly UKMO very different to GFS at day 7

gfsnh-0-144.png?12UN144-21.GIF

The interest is that the Scandi block is being rebuilt with WAA primed to push into the region from 144 on UKMO. There would be no Atlantic at 168.

 

EDIT

Never mind Steve already replied.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

Arpege does seem the 'best' for those of us wanting snow, and not just for the north. Apologies for the France view, it is because the UK view hasn't update yet. I show this to indicate possible at risk areas, ignore the snowfall depths. The 'angle of attack' seems to be better which probably explains why it shows more snow compared to ICON and GFS.

arpege-45-110-0.png

Edited by AppleUK 123
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The only positive I see is the PV dropping into Scandi, if we could tap into that then bingo,

I agree MS...the sub -20C uppers getting east of the Greenwich meridian ought to be a good thing?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Though, at this point, snow look like being limited to the highest Scottish mountains, southern and western coastal districts would be battered by gales and thundery showers:

Netweather GFS Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Hoping gfs has got this wrong from a imby POV. A direct hit. 

10EF5901-9EC2-438E-A496-0A7E4CDD3E52.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

With the weekends antic 'still to be resolved'..

The christmas period still 4 me..the start-of winter incursion proper..

Its been flaaging and continues the notion..

Its looking imo 2 be the taster of latter prognosis.

And there is plenty to assume thats where the starting pistol may very well fire!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If only that Atlantic HP would ridge into Scandi or Greenland? None of your Large Teapot Topplers, thank you!

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
Oops!
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GEM similar to APERGE

05EB5889-588C-4BC7-85B1-92F26D6E0985.thumb.png.87c5661c9d08275c8a04ce2caa61ba63.png

Remember just 48 hours ago there was no snow event...

Well that puts a spanner in the works but does it take elevation into account i asume it does. But its the polar opposite to the gfs.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

If only that Atlantic HP would ridge into Scandi? None of your Large Teapot Topplers, thank you!

Netweather GFS Image

Tbh..thats where im looking 4 that 'exact' evolution...at ridging...then the link an-wrap to scandi...needs eyeing over the nxt week-or so...

Given the games at the upper layers..its feasible...and is begining to note....2 a degree!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GEM similar to APERGE

05EB5889-588C-4BC7-85B1-92F26D6E0985.thumb.png.87c5661c9d08275c8a04ce2caa61ba63.png

Remember just 48 hours ago there was no snow event...

Looks further south than APERGE. Perhaps a few hrs of snow for midlands north but in the middle of the night,  so will be gone by Sunday morn unfortunately 

17D4AF2C-C39D-420D-B111-EE22FCA23651.png

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