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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Was gona mention the same thing buddy!!over to gfs now!!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

ICON at 132 hrs is on the move imo with the atlantic forcing a ridge!! wedges of heigths splitting and forcing the low in atlantic

 

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Respect Steve, but feel like the majority on here really aren’t interested in a bit of snow that either doesn’t lay or thaws within hours of falling. Perhaps I’m on my own here but I prefer no snow than snow not laying/thawing rapidly. I could be wrong though  

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

The approach of the front is just not conducive to snow, mostly mixed out by the time the PPn gets there, unless of course your lucky enougth to pick up a shower from the east before hand.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Respect Steve, but feel like the majority on here really aren’t interested in a bit of snow that either doesn’t lay or thaws within hours of falling. Perhaps I’m on my own here but I prefer no snow than snow not laying/thawing rapidly. I could be wrong though  

Rather it doesn't snow than an hour of it lol

Edited by lassie23
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Posted
  • Location: Glasshouses HG3
  • Weather Preferences: Snow upon snow upon SNOW!!!
  • Location: Glasshouses HG3
15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Hi Steve Murr ??

Starting to feel very quiet in here and it’s the only thing getting me through my long days at work lol.

do you or anyone else fancy having a guesstimating Stab at what will happen over Friday and Saturday?

my brain has been fried over the last few days with the yes it will no it won’t posts regarding this weekend and now I’m at a loss what to think?

thanks in advance,

Ryan

(long time lurker... love the show guys and gals ??)

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Keep posting about this weekend Steve! I'm certainly interested even if it is a brief affair and I'm sure many others in the North will be.

Can't see much in the way here at my elevation but with the nearby North York Moors and Yorkshire Dales, they may be some fun to be had with the new winter tyres on Saturday evening for a time.

iconeu_uk1-1-105-0.png?11-16

Edited by vizzy2004
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
54 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Iirc there is even an expression in German for the Christmas thaw, for some reason between Christmas and new year the weather is even more often than usual Atlantic 

An-slush?

Remarkable how mild continental North America is overall at the end of the ICON 12z:

iconnh-0-180.png?11-12

 

As mentioned above, really want to see a renewed push of heights over Alaska on the latter parts of the GFS 12z to get that wave 2 activity going.

 

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im still concentrating on the weekend-

ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge

Personally I'm very interested in the developments for this weekend. There is a fair chance that the colder air could last well into Sunday over Scotland and this could potentially bring a whole day of snow on Saturday to many. 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

144 UKMO very interesting !

F7D58C9F-95EE-4BA6-BE84-5C91E19B0A80.thumb.png.5b69564ce097aa4dc7c3910becf782ea.png

Yes, very interesting - can it be right?  The evolution from 120 to 144 looks weird...

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144-

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

that looks a mild chart to me, lets hope the high builds north and shuts the Atlantic down

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Yes, very interesting - can it be right?  The evolution from 120 to 144 looks weird...

Must admit, it looked very dodgy to me but who knows ..

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not sure if its just run by run differences  or infact if it will lead to anything   but the low is much more shallow than its previous run

81-7UK.gif84-7UK.gif  

Still sayin it but ecm will fall in line with gfs this evening!!no other model has as low 850s as ecm does for thursday and friday!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

This is defo not what I want to see this Saturday...the Scandi has gone horribly round!

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

144 UKMO very interesting !

F7D58C9F-95EE-4BA6-BE84-5C91E19B0A80.thumb.png.5b69564ce097aa4dc7c3910becf782ea.png

What am I missing here Steve?

All I see are Iberian heights, a positively tilted Atlantic low and South Westerlies?

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