The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic but that's the complete opposite of "flat"

he is of course being sarcastic in his reply to myself, its blocked to the NE, but part of the problem has been the energy in the Atlantic jet

which as he has said himself numerous times is why the block will not hold..

Anyway, there are ways of debating without resorting to sarcasm - so with that in mind i will refrain from further discussion..

Edited December 11, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Dennis]

AO forecast

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

he is of course being sarcastic in his reply to myself, its blocked to the NE, but part of the problem has been the energy in the Atlantic jet

which as he has said himself numerous times is why the block will not hold..

But it's not consistently flat thou. 

 

[jethro]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Thought you might like these pictures taken in the village last night. 50cm snowfall ! Interesting charts from the models this morning with a bit of a colder upgrade. Looking at the UKMO fax chart , a cold block still in place for Friday with little progress of the front out of Ireland. Think Saturday could be an interest day as the fronts start to push into the cold air ( transient snow for quite a few ) if the current model outputs hold but I think beyond 96 t I-144t is open to uncertainty. Should get an update later from over here as regards to the colder spell to evolve in the 10-15 days ( as indicated in the above post ). 

C 

You do realise that when you post pics like that, the background of the page glows green over here with the collective envy?

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

But it's not consistently flat thou. 

 

No problem, lets move on.

BBC RAW goes for a good few hours of heavy snow for you, get that alarm clock primed

SAT morning obvs..

Edited December 11, 2018 by northwestsnow

[BlueHedgehog074]

25 minutes ago, Purga said:

Christmas cheer...

Just a bit of fun but compare...

Just sayin...

 

Ar dude, such a mouth-drooling chart at the end of that GFS run this morning!  Wish this was for tomorrow and that it maintained itself throughout Christmas lol. And into January and into February and into March. 

12 minutes ago, Dennis said:

AO forecast

Not bad. I suppose a chance there for the Arctic Oscillation to go into negative territory, should that end up being close to what could happen. (and then hopefully a negative non-Western based NAO and/or more stable Scandinavian block to go with it). 

Edited December 11, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine
Typing error changing Amen to And

[Scandinavian High.]

33 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

EC46 isn't very inspiring. 

The theme for the 4 week run is generally one of unsettled and milder weather, low pressure dominating. There's a few transient blocking events (one notable around the xmas period, similar to the GFS 00z actually) which bring short cold snaps but nothing prolonged suggested from the model.

Though, given MJO returning to the Indian Ocean and developments in the Stratosphere late Dec I'd suggest weeks 3/4 to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, even week 2 could prove to be fairly inaccurate should blocking materialise around Christmas more than the models are currently suggesting (seems possible) 

Quick sneak look at the EPS NAO/AO predictions

I've seen worse..

How  reliable is ec46 thank you .

[northwestsnow]

^^

Thats the million dollar question, it has had good times, and bad.

No model is perfect at such ranges, i think we need to hear from Blue etc.

I'm hopeful we will see changes come the festive period but in truth, i don't think anyone really knows just yet..

[Met4Cast]

15 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

How  reliable is ec46 thank you .

Out to week 2 it's usually fairly reliable, 3 and 4 can be a little bit hit and miss though it's worth noting that at the beginning of November the week 4 chart picked up the Scandi blocking we saw at the end of November. 

Usual caveats apply to any chart at that range though, of course.

[Mike Poole]

Now up to 8/21 GEFS members going for a technical SSW, and the mean looks like it would hit the line in another day or so:

I think we can say the displacement SSW will now happen but what next, will we get the split?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Now up to 8/21 GEFS members going for a technical SSW, and the mean looks like it would hit the line in another day or so:

I think we can say the displacement SSW will now happen but what next, will we get the split?

At the very least the above charts showing zonal winds on a downwards curve from around the 15th, won't do any harm thats for sure!

[Purga]

43 minutes ago, jethro said:

You do realise that when you post pics like that, the background of the page glows green over here with the collective envy?

Looks like Somerset last winter when the beast arrived!

Made us in the SE green...

[Iceaxecrampon]

'Haway the Lads 

 

[northwestsnow]

6Z has edged the pattern west ever so slightly - wont change the outcome but might have an effect on who sees snow saturday..

[Met4Cast]

ECM & ICON broadly in agreement re: weekend snow risk. Largely a rain event away from Northern hills, perhaps low level snow in the North East for a brief time before it turns back to rain

ECM certainly ditching the idea of a widespread snow risk this morning

[North East Blizzard]

30 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Now up to 8/21 GEFS members going for a technical SSW, and the mean looks like it would hit the line in another day or so:

I think we can say the displacement SSW will now happen but what next, will we get the split?

Morning, do you have a link to this chart, just realised I've been looking at the 65* north version for the last month, which does have the mean going into a reversal, can't seem to find the link for 60* north variant 

 

On that note, isn't it still a good sign if at 65 degrees north the zonal winds are predicted to reverse?

[Methuselah]

Friday could squeeze-out a few snow flurries, for the SE and EA?

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

Morning, do you have a link to this chart, just realised I've been looking at the 65* north version for the last month, which does have the mean going into a reversal, can't seem to find the link for 60* north variant 

 

On that note, isn't it still a good sign if at 65 degrees north the zonal winds are predicted to reverse?

Yes, you just need to load the 65N one and change to 60N in the URL, here's the chart:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_60N_10hpa_gefs.png

Yes, still good at 65N - but the 'official' criterion for SSW is at 60N.

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Friday could squeeze-out a few snow flurries, for the SE and EA?

Yes

The GFS moves the pattern or rather the 'continental air mass' further west - however the front still squeezes out the cold air -

However we have on the GFS gone from a straight SSW flow to a direct southerly- still 90 hours to go & every chance of a bit of undercutting- bearing in mind the 00z 72 had -2c uppers in London, now down to -6 on the same timestamp...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Can we bin the GFS 06z such massive changes so early on..

Standard GFS love affair with blowing that low pressure up 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

^^

Thats the million dollar question, it has had good times, and bad.

No model is perfect at such ranges, i think we need to hear from Blue etc.

I'm hopeful we will see changes come the festive period but in truth, i don't think anyone really knows just yet..

Ec46 promises stuff post mid jan (again) and possibly a little later than that - that’s the mean - there will be clusters which deliver sooner

 

[ALL ABOARD]

Glosea update. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by ALL ABOARD
Words

[Met4Cast]

GLOSEA update continues the blocked theme Jan-March

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

GLOSEA update continues the blocked theme Jan-March

That looks fabulous to me Daniel

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That looks fabulous to me Daniel

It does  a potential white winter  going on that update.