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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, terrier said:

Looks to me reading over last few pages that too much onus is been put on this ssw. Judan Cohen has looked at a few ssw events for Western Europe and only 1/7 has resulted in colder weather for Western Europe. Anyway back to the models looks like the Atlantic comes in this weekend with maybe some brief spell of snow for the highest hills in the north. Apart from that keeping feet firmly on the ground. Because this ssw certainly isn’t guaranteed to bring us colder weather. We could very easily end up on the wrong side of any blocking. Which would be just our luck. 

That’s only for displacements. With a split vortex it’s 2 in 3, and the experts in that area reckon there are promising signs for further strat warming late December/early January that could lead to a split vortex, with the by then already weakened and displaced vortex more susceptible to being split.

It also doesn’t take into account where the displacement occurs.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
10 minutes ago, terrier said:

Looks to me reading over last few pages that too much onus is been put on this ssw. Judan Cohen has looked at a few ssw events for Western Europe and only 1/7 has resulted in colder weather for Western Europe. Anyway back to the models looks like the Atlantic comes in this weekend with maybe some brief spell of snow for the highest hills in the north. Apart from that keeping feet firmly on the ground. Because this ssw certainly isn’t guaranteed to bring us colder weather. We could very easily end up on the wrong side of any blocking. Which would be just our luck. 

Yesterday, @ArHu3kindly posted this, which shows temperature anomalies specifically following stratospheric displacements. I'd like to see similar regarding stratospheric splits as I expect this would yield different results. For Central Europe I see two colder, one average and 4 warmer but this is a rather small sample to be drawing solid conclusions from. 

figure-iv_12012018 (2).webp

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Thought you might like these pictures taken in the village last night. 50cm snowfall ! Interesting charts from the models this morning with a bit of a colder upgrade. Looking at the UKMO fax chart , a cold block still in place for Friday with little progress of the front out of Ireland. Think Saturday could be an interest day as the fronts start to push into the cold air ( transient snow for quite a few ) if the current model outputs hold but I think beyond 96 t I-144t is open to uncertainty. Should get an update later from over here as regards to the colder spell to evolve in the 10-15 days ( as indicated in the above post ). 

47679655_10157028413123628_5730097477990744064_o.jpg

47682820_10157028416813628_4933075994530545664_o.jpg

We call that a dusting in here wonderful photos

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Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)

The stratosphere looks like it is going to get fried ☺. Signs of change on later model frames starting to show in the GFS 00z. Obviously far out but a step in the right direction for us coldies. Interesting times ahead.

00_384_arctic10.png

00_384_arctic1.png

00_384_mslp500.png

00_384_uk2mtmpmin.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

OK, we are going to have wait a wee while for a change, or potential change.

But, i'm seeing glimmers by day 10 this morning of changes , GFS showing signs of Atlantic ridging and i suspect EC would eventually move in that direction.

Wouldn't it be lovely to see a move away from this persistent flat Atlantic profile just as we reach christmas !!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ECM op is all over the place at times again on the 00z for the 850s. The 14th and 16th are the stand out days

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.ff54113bf58ae5ae3f2b376a91abe4c9.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

Impressive   all  i can say  for near the big  day  is now looking  for the east coast

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Post circa Saturday, the Atlantic getting through and an unsettled period has been on the cards for quite a while now and the 00z suite does nothing to dispel that. Some differences around the D7 period reference the jet behaviour in the mid Atlantic, but even then no real appetite to bring anything of any note to us through next week. Thereafter is where the real interest lies. And some!

Absolutely fascinating viewing at the moment!

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

EC46 isn't very inspiring. 

The theme for the 4 week run is generally one of unsettled and milder weather, low pressure dominating. There's a few transient blocking events (one notable around the xmas period, similar to the GFS 00z actually) which bring short cold snaps but nothing prolonged suggested from the model.

Though, given MJO returning to the Indian Ocean and developments in the Stratosphere late Dec I'd suggest weeks 3/4 to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, even week 2 could prove to be fairly inaccurate should blocking materialise around Christmas more than the models are currently suggesting (seems possible) 

Quick sneak look at the EPS NAO/AO predictions

NAO.thumb.png.297d7ff785757f7ed876b948d6314048.pngAO.thumb.png.8f473e0aeaa6d44c289704366c42b600.png

I've seen worse..

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
40 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

OK, we are going to have wait a wee while for a change, or potential change.

But, i'm seeing glimmers by day 10 this morning of changes , GFS showing signs of Atlantic ridging and i suspect EC would eventually move in that direction.

Wouldn't it be lovely to see a move away from this persistent flat Atlantic profile just as we reach christmas !!

What perseitant flat atlantic profile? 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Bit of an outlier the GFS but interesting to see it's not completely without support, there's clustering of colder members too

GFSENS00_52_0_205.thumb.png.27848df4139921bde21edec885fc7fdb.png

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs in a very festive mood this morning

Has us in a notable cold shot..with many a snow chance..

Looking at both evolution..and overheads....its got a shot.

Things evoluving nicely...as we move through the month now !!!

gfs-1-348 (1).png

gfs-0-336 (1).png

Yeah it’s looking good Tight Isobar.For those of us forecasting a bitterly cold outbreak by the end of the year,with the third Easterly making it through,well it seems the gfs is beginning to smelll the coffee,lol

I would expect more extreme charts from all the models in the next week and further,once the bitterly cold pattern that many are predicting for the end of year ,comes into the reliable timeframe.

Get your skies and skates ready tight isobar⛷️

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

What perseitant flat atlantic profile? 

The one thats brought us day after day of rain? (OK bar the odd dry one since late November).

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

 

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Bit of an outlier the GFS but interesting to see it's not completely without support, there's clustering of colder members too

GFSENS00_52_0_205.thumb.png.27848df4139921bde21edec885fc7fdb.png

I’ve got a feeling we are going to see those cold members increase for Xmas over the next few days. Could this be the year that the weather times it perfectly for Xmas?  P.S has anyone got a link for the GEFS ensembles in the above format they could share please? 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-2018111800-0-6.pnggfs-0-6.png

Persistent and flat. 

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic but that's the complete opposite of "flat"

EDIT: The previous posts just showed up, ignore

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Tim Bland said:

 

I’ve got a feeling we are going to see those cold members increase for Xmas over the next few days. Could this be the year that the weather times it perfectly for Xmas?  P.S has anyone got a link for the GEFS ensembles in the above format they could share please? 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&amp;model=gfs&amp;var=205&amp;run=0&amp;lid=ENS&amp;bw=

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