The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Get the block in place and the cold will follow...

Yes, sure to that, but I think some are getting overexcited by a GFS run in later stages that looked (to me anyway) suspect earlier. Time will tell, night all!

[Ladyofthestorm]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Well your bet would be where mine is placed too for what it's worth.

Unusual synoptics in the offing so we can't really find similar analogue years. 

I get that feeling the SSW event or two, will eventually split the PV and then weaken it. The Jetstream will buckle allowing initially a very cold Nly blast to a Scandi High bringing in an Easterly.  The Atlantic once buckled will struggle to ramp up again 

 

 

 

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

It can but we need a strong Scandi high in the process to hold off any Atlantic charge, unless we can get rid of the cold in the NW North Atlantic.

A Greenland block will do the same thing. And with that low dropping into eastern europe with very cold uppers it wouldn't take long.

[snowangel32]

14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Hmm. 26th of December.

Somewhere GP is looking smug.

Matt am i missing something wouldn't that chart be bad for the uk as theres no cold to tap into. Yh the vortex is shredded to pieces but to me it looks like we would just get a coldish high. All hyperthetical off course. But dont we want to see part of the vortex lope in Europe so we have true cold to tap into.

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

A Greenland block will do the same thing. And with that low dropping into eastern europe with very cold uppers it wouldn't take long.

It's a cold based Greenland high though, would likely lead to a west based -NAO, I don't see the hype in the T384 chart unfortunately..

[MattStoke]

Just now, snowangel32 said:

Matt am i missing something wouldn't that chart be bad for the uk as theres no cold to tap into. Yh the vortex is shredded to pieces but to me it looks like we would just get a coldish high. All hyperthetical off course. But dont we want to see part of the vortex lope in Europe so we have true cold to tap into.

Would mean a much weaker jet, a great chance of blocking establishing to our north and significant cold spilling down into the mid latitudes. Depends on where exactly blocking setups but there would be a very good chance of significant cold to our shores further down the line.

Meanwhile, strong warming at the 1hpa level right over the UK.

 

[Snowman.]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

It's a cold based Greenland high though, would likely lead to a west based -NAO, I don't see the hype in the T384 chart unfortunately..

Can't be a west -NAO if there is a chunk of the vortex there.

But it's a lot of speculation off a chart at D16 so not worth taking much on however the vortex looks truly shattered.

[ITSY]

Control picking up a similar signal re HLB post Xmas, coinciding with wave 1 strat warming 

[MattStoke]

Not really concerned with where exactly the areas of high pressure and lobes of the PV are on that chart as detail like that will change a hundred times. 

Just encoraged by the fact that the strong strat warming continues to show and to not be getting pushed further back, and the fact that the potential for the PV to be severely disrupted and even split is shown. Doesn’t mean it will happen or will happen in a way that is favourable for us but it is encouraging to see the potential for something that at least increases our chances of cold. Especially as it is all along the lines of what the most knowledgeable posters have been saying for some time.

Edited December 10, 2018 by MattStoke

[bradymk]

As other have said, it’s not so much what the last few charts of the 18z show for the UK, it’s more what it shows on the hemisphere view and what effect/forcing this pattern will have on the vortex. 

All in good time from there then hopefully....

a few gefs members also have the alaskan high at the end of their runs.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

As other have said, it’s not so much what the last few charts of the 18z show for the UK, it’s more what it shows on the hemisphere view and what effect/forcing this pattern will have on the vortex. 

All in good time from there then hopefully....

a few gefs members also have the alaskan high at the end of their runs.

I guess this Alaskan high is a key ingredient for cold fans?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I guess this Alaskan high is a key ingredient for cold fans?

Yes as you want the SSW to become a split wave 2 SSW, so you need a ridge opposite the scandi ridge (hemispherically) in order to split the vortex.

[weirpig]

In the mid term  if the para is correct  the country will be suffering a timber shortage  as many folk rush to build an ark  copious amounts of the wet stuff 

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

In the mid term  if the para is correct  the country will be suffering a timber shortage  as many folk rush to build an ark  copious amounts of the wet stuff 

Looks like it likes dart board lows as much as it’s predecessor.

Edited December 10, 2018 by MattStoke

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Looks like it likes dart board lows as much as it’s predecessor.

Don't know how you've linked that image but it ain't showing on my phone 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Don't know how you've linked that image but it ain't showing on my phone 

Its showing on the computer.

[matt111]

@Summer Sun This is the image he posted. 

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Impressive NH profile but the cold air is falling in all the wrong places for the UK. UK is under mild southerlies and a deep cold pool falling over NE Canada. The Atlantic would fire up again unless that Scandi high strengthened. I'd rather see a poor NH profile and a really good setup for cold in the UK then a good NH profile and a setup that doesn't deliver.

Nevertheless its a long distance a way and any signal for blocking is better then nothing.

not necessarily if the block can break through to Greenland all that energy will be pushed south of the UK..THEN BINGO

[SLEETY]

still looking good for the predicted cold wave at the end of the year.time to place a bet on a white new year !

[A Frayed Knot]

Gee wizz 'up and down in here yesterday going by the posters , are we on a cusp of a Cold spell or not . Seems like many see the colours of a computer and go by what it shows , Me 'I sit back and laugh at all the banter in here .Cold spell is coming and it will prevail 2 days before Crimbo Eve

[CanadaAl]

15 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Gee wizz 'up and down in here yesterday going by the posters , are we on a cusp of a Cold spell or not . Seems like many see the colours of a computer and go by what it shows , Me 'I sit back and laugh at all the banter in here .Cold spell is coming and it will prevail 2 days before Crimbo Eve

Looks like 22 Dec onwards could well get interesting. Best chances for anything prolonged seem after New Year. That seems to be the general idea 

[CanadaAl]

ICON being a filthy tease with this chart:

Maybe giving us a few flakes before the fun really begins around xmas/new year

Edited December 11, 2018 by CanadaAl

[swfc]

9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Morning.still very interesting nhp on the run in to Xmas.the pushing and pulling of the atmosphere gives the opportunity for wedges and areas of heights to pop up almost anywhere imo.know idea why NW is there lol

Edited December 11, 2018 by swfc

[tight isobar]

Gfs in a very festive mood this morning

Has us in a notable cold shot..with many a snow chance..

Looking at both evolution..and overheads....its got a shot.

Things evoluving nicely...as we move through the month now !!!

Edited December 11, 2018 by tight isobar

[terrier]

Looks to me reading over last few pages that too much onus is been put on this ssw. Judan Cohen has looked at a few ssw events for Western Europe and only 1/7 has resulted in colder weather for Western Europe. Anyway back to the models looks like the Atlantic comes in this weekend with maybe some brief spell of snow for the highest hills in the north. Apart from that keeping feet firmly on the ground. Because this ssw certainly isn’t guaranteed to bring us colder weather. We could very easily end up on the wrong side of any blocking. Which would be just our luck.