Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

There has definitely been a shift east of the Scandi high today so I think the majority of us will have to be patient with regards to snow. Maybe here in the NE some snow may arise when the mild air tries to push through.

After that it looks as though the Atlantic may dominate for a while with westerlies returning but nothing too mild. However large areas of the Northern hemisphere look very mild over the next week. It would be good to get some cold to our east.

image.thumb.png.527da5f28518f36e6f085f74411243ed.png

Cold air confined to the Central North Atlantic yet again! The only other place in the NH for anomalous cold is Siberia. All pretty disappointing with global temperature anomalies a whopping 0.77C above the 1981-2010 climatological average.

Looking further afield and I'm updating the swingometers for christmas day. These have been pretty mild recently.

image.thumb.png.1cb749f0dd3eb3a4b413f06ea61099a5.png

So nothing exciting yet... lets hope it changes soon. Warm global temperatures and UK CET currently running 3.4C above normal so far despite the low solar activity!!!!! 

More like the believers winter rather then the deniers winter so far. No evidence of any weather patterns to cause a winter of discontent so far. Seems the only discontent will be in Westminster. Can't we remain in the cold European airmasses? Maybe in the new year or later in the month.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Good Evening Steve, how far south do you think we will see the snow, if we do see any snow at all from this event? I do trust you as your instincts have been very good lately but still remain cautious. For eg, the Met Office forecast for this day is for temps to increase with the precipitation.

I think there is a possibility although its hard second guessing the models all the time-

What I believe is get a more widespread event we need to shear apart the energy moving some East & More North- a little like the ECM

Heres the 102 Aperge highlighting possible further developments & the opportunity for energy to slide east-

5B5219A6-56E7-4ACA-8728-85E863610904.thumb.jpeg.f7ab0aa7bfabcf2097822a04577cbaef.jpeg

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Snorter!

gfsnh-0-324_hvt9.png

Oh yesss . There the charts we wanna be seeing . Hopefully more to come and count down to T0 . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Snorter!

gfsnh-0-324_hvt9.png

The shreader !!!..

Alaska...meets greenland...

@split..

And is a very pleasing location...

1 to note.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

This isn't as good as it looks from a UK perspective, pub run T336:

image.thumb.jpg.9f824051df604ecccc70a8816e9d4ed8.jpg

No cold uppers over UK, and in any case most of this run before this chart was cobblers, but what interests me is the high heights incursion from the other side of the globe, talk about hitting a vortex when it's (going to be) down!  Still need the follow up to the strat warming though...and that might just be delivered.

Edited by Mike Poole
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Strongest strat warming lasts longer on this run, with the highest temperatures shifting southward over the pole towards north Greenland between +276 and +384 hours.

today1.png

today2.png

Edited by MattStoke
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Jeez the NH profile in fi of the gfs is incredible  

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Best NH chart I've seen in a long time 

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

Two massive ridges straight into the pole!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think there is a possibility although its hard second guessing the models all the time-

What I believe is get a more widespread event we need to shear apart the energy moving some East & More North- a little like the ECM

Heres the 102 Aperge highlighting possible further developments & the opportunity for energy to slide east-

5B5219A6-56E7-4ACA-8728-85E863610904.thumb.jpeg.f7ab0aa7bfabcf2097822a04577cbaef.jpeg

Latest arpege is further east at only 60 hours steve!!and i dont think there is anywhere near as colder uppers as the ecm is showing!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Best NH chart I've seen in a long time 

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

Two massive ridges straight into the pole!

I suspect this will be the first of many crazy NH views we see over the coming weeks.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I suspect this will be the first of many crazy NH views we see over the coming weeks.

The big question though as we get nearer to January is will mine and your January forecast come to fruition, in other words, will one of them end up an analysis chart?

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Just now, MattStoke said:

Hmm. 26th of December.

Somewhere GP is looking smug.

gfsnh-0-384_trs5.png

Impressive NH profile but the cold air is falling in all the wrong places for the UK. UK is under mild southerlies and a deep cold pool falling over NE Canada. The Atlantic would fire up again unless that Scandi high strengthened. I'd rather see a poor NH profile and a really good setup for cold in the UK then a good NH profile and a setup that doesn't deliver.

Nevertheless its a long distance a way and any signal for blocking is better then nothing.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This isn't as good as it looks from a UK perspective, pub run T336:

image.thumb.jpg.9f824051df604ecccc70a8816e9d4ed8.jpg

No cold uppers over UK, and in any case most of this run before this chart was cobblers, but what interests me is the high heights incursion from the other side of the globe, talk about hitting a vortex when it's (going to be) down!  Still need the follow up to the strat warming though...

Get the block in place and the cold will follow...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Well that’s one way to bolster the wave-2! Just a bit short on the Atlantic side still perhaps - if I’m being very picky. Given vortex state beforehand we may not need things to be as optimal as usual.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Impressive NH profile but the cold air is falling in all the wrong places for the UK. UK is under mild southerlies and a deep cold pool falling over NE Canada. The Atlantic would fire up again unless that Scandi high strengthened. I'd rather see a poor NH profile and a really good setup for cold in the UK then a good NH profile and a setup that doesn't deliver.

Nevertheless its a long distance a way and any signal for blocking is better then nothing.

Surely though that gives a great chance of significant cold to our shores further down the line. How often does a mild southerly lead to heights building to our north and then the flow switching to the north or east? What goes up must come down!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

It looks to me with every model run the jetstream looks vulnerable to buckling and the Polar vortex equally so. I'm pretty confident that a significant cold spell is not a case of if but more when... My bets right in the beginning of the new year. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Ladyofthestorm said:

It looks to me with every model run the jetstream looks vulnerable to buckling and the Polar vortex equally so. I'm pretty confident that a significant cold spell is not a case of if but more when... My bets right in the beginning of the new year. 

Well your bet would be where mine is placed too for what it's worth.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Surely though that gives a great chance of significant cold to our shores further down the line. How often does a mild southerly lead to heights building to our north and then the flow switching to the north or east? What goes up must come down!

It can but we need a strong Scandi high in the process to hold off any Atlantic charge, unless we can get rid of the cold in the NW North Atlantic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...