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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

I'm in the snow zone on those ECM charts but the way the Atlantic keeps getting delayed with every model run I am half expecting a dry but bitter weekend!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
12 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes that's the Azores ridging at that point.

On a general note sometimes it pays to take a step back from the details in every single run.I compare the same run,in this case the12z with the one from 3 days back,we can see that trend developing.

In a situation like we have this week with each model run ebbing and flowing wrt the east-west split it's a good way of monitoring the overall trend.As long as you compare any run with it's earlier one from 24 hrs earlier.Something John H has always said and one of the tips i took on board many years ago.  

Thankfully I only really look  the 12Z outputs during the week when I get home (hands up regarding the weekend) and makes sense.

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I may have misunderstood and taken things the wrong way then. A common mistake thanks to my Aspergers. Apologies.

A fellow Aspie.. its difficult in here some times isnt it.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I may have misunderstood and taken things the wrong way then. A common mistake thanks to my Aspergers. Apologies.

You're not alone in that, Matt. There are at least two of us!

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I may have misunderstood and taken things the wrong way then. A common mistake thanks to my Aspergers. Apologies.

Same here i think thats where my Snow obsession comes from. I drive the hubby crazy in Winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

A fellow Aspie.. its difficult in here some times isnt it.

I can also blame it for my obsession with weather, particularly snow.

Don't know what excuse there is for every other crazy snow lover in here 

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I may have misunderstood and taken things the wrong way then. A common mistake thanks to my Aspergers. Apologies.

No worries. I am sorry for any offence caused.

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I never used to talk about anything else.

As a kid growing up i would wake up every morning from 1st December to the 28th Feb (29th every 4 years) and run to my bedroom window pull the curtains back and expect Snaw, was let down so many times and i just couldnt understand why it was winter but not Snawing.

Edited by Guest
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

My thoughts on the delay of the Scandi high wilting is a knock on delay on the Atlantic getting through. This in turn delays the change to something better and colder around Christmas...In simple terms if the Atlantic is going to win out let's get on with it.....The quicker the better!

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, More Snow said:

As a kid growing up i would wake up every morning from 1st December to the 28th Feb (29th every 4 years) and run to my bedroom window pull the curtains back and expect Snaw, was let down so many times and i just couldnt understand why it was winter but not Snawing.

The reason I got into looking at weather models for myself was the number of times, while growing up in London, I would be full of excitement at forecasts of snow only to get rain. 

I wanted to see how hard it is to predict snow. Turns out, very!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, More Snow said:

As a kid growing up i would wake up every morning from 1st December to the 28th Feb (29th every 4 years) and run to my bedroom window pull the curtains back and expect Snaw, was let down so many times and i just couldnt understand why it was winter but not Snawing.

I once worked out how long it would take a snow cloud to go all the way round the world.

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

My thoughts on the delay of the Scandi high wilting is a knock on delay on the Atlantic getting through. This in turn delays the change to something better and colder around Christmas...In simple terms if the Atlantic is going to win out let's get on with it.....The quicker the better!

Noo you want it delayed as much as possible it well help build hieghts and further weaken the PV if the Atlantic just smashed through it would flatten evrething.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No worries. I am sorry for any offence caused.

Your comments about the ECM snow precipitation map are valid though. It's almost like whoever wrote the code for it put the UK at a similar elevation to Ben Nevis. Not sure why it hasn't been sorted out after all this time. 

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

You're comments about the ECM snow precipitation map are valid though. It's almost like whoever wrote the code for it put the UK at the same elevation as Ben Nevis. Not sure why it hasn't been sorted out after all this time. 

I believe the ECM shows any wintry precipitation (even sleet) as settling. Normally if you halve the snow depths on the ECM, you'll get a more realistic picture, but in this case I think even that would be optimistic (It has circa 5 inches for me!).

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Some poor sod is going to come online at some stage and see a massive number of replies and think winter wonderland charts are being rolled out, when in all reality its us Aspies clogging up the thread with our obsessions 

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I believe the ECM shows any wintry precipitation (even sleet) as settling. Normally if you halve the snow depths on the ECM, you'll get a more realistic picture, but in this case I think even that would be optimistic (It has circa 5 inches for me!).

I told the wife to expect 5 inches at the weekend... she laughed and walked off!

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Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London
2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Some poor sod is going to come online at some stage and see a massive number of replies and think winter wonderland charts are being rolled out, when in all reality its us Aspies clogging up the thread with our obsessions 

That would be me. Sudden increase in posts got my hopes up. Learned my lesson. 

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
4 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Some poor sod is going to come online at some stage and see a massive number of replies and think winter wonderland charts are being rolled out, when in all reality its us Aspies clogging up the thread with our obsessions 

True before i look at the thread i always see how many pages and posts. Because you know 10 pages plus its a good model run and 1 page its a bad run its easier than hiding behind the sofa lol.

Edited by snowangel32
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

OK - A little drifting off is fine, but it's straying way off-topic now.

Let's resume back to normal service now. 

Thank you!

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

OK - A little drifting off is fine, but it's straying way off-topic now.

Let's resume back to normal service now. 

Thank you!

Sorry...

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