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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, northwestsnow said:

MUCH better ec!!

BUT, i just wish the Atlantic would give us a break, every slide there is disruption along comes another low winding up to attack..

that's Dec for you, much better chance of 'us' winning if this had been mid Feb, 2 fingers up to the Atlantic

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 hours ago, Mizzle said:

What is the difference on uk weather impacts between a split and a displacement?

Split SSW's are far more likely to produce COld spell, however, don't worry yet, we could see a split further down the line - see chiono's post in the strat thread - i did have a paper which shows patterns leading up to each type and afterwards, but i have so much weather related stuff, i cant find it.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Sunday could well be the day to watch, the way the models keep pushing back the Atlantic as the mid term comes closer means Sunday’s Atlantic push through could well end up disrupting and being the snow event........we shall see.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
7 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

This is why nothing can be trusted beyond 4 days at the moment. Chalk and cheese. 

12z Yesterday

ECM1-168.GIF

12z Today

ECM1-144.GIF?10-0

That's actually pretty good for something 7 days out, I bet that the ensemble mean will even turn out to verify even better than that 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Split SSW's are far more likely to produce COld spell, however, don't worry yet, we could see a split further down the line - see chiono's post in the strat thread - i did have a paper which shows patterns leading up to each type and afterwards, but i have so much weather related stuff, i cant find it.

You could also say that displacements are likely to bring milder than average temperatures to our parts (6/7 times for displacements since the nineties) 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

MUCH better ec!!

BUT, i just wish the Atlantic would give us a break, every slide there is disruption along comes another low winding up to attack..

I think there's just to much energy in the jet nw.plus not enough entrenched cold to the east which is a big factor atm

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Come on the EC... tweak that mild sector out further....

 

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, ArHu3 said:

You could also say that displacements are likely to bring milder than average temperatures to our parts (6/7 times for displacements since the nineties) 

Yes, although we did have some sort of cold spells in 07 and 04, and you could argue 06 we did have a cold spell much later but probably unrelated.

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

We've gone from chasing a decent cold Easterly to hoping the fronts come in at just the right angle we see a transient snow event.. 

I've personally lost interest, a bit of wet sleety snow followed by rain isn't my cup of tea whatsover. My interest now lies with the late December period, some decent Strat forecasts coming in and signals on the extended GFS of blocking in the form of Atlantic/Greenland highs being suggested on some of the ensembles!

I don't think a decent easterly was ever modelled. It always looked fairly weak but had the opportunity to be something more. Although slim, there is still some scope for that to happen. 

And anyway, if some people end up with 6" of snow from a battleground scenario, I doubt they will care about a 'decent cold easterly'

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I don't think a decent easterly was ever modelled. It always looked fairly weak but had the opportunity to be something more. Although slim, there is still some scope for that to happen. 

And anyway, if some people end up with 6" of snow from a battleground scenario, I doubt they will care about a 'decent cold easterly'

Unless you live on a mountain in Scotland nobody on here is going to be seeing 6" of snow next weekend. 

Putting aside the latest ECM, a majority of the models show snowfall largely limited to the Pennines Northwards, EPS ensembles support this to a large degree too as do the high-res models that are just coming into range of next weekend. Doesn't matter how low the uppers/temperatures get this week/end of the week if they're all swept away before any PPN can get close to it

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

We've gone from chasing a decent cold Easterly to hoping the fronts come in at just the right angle we see a transient snow event.. 

I've personally lost interest, a bit of wet sleety snow followed by rain isn't my cup of tea whatsover. My interest now lies with the late December period, some decent Strat forecasts coming in and signals on the extended GFS of blocking in the form of Atlantic/Greenland highs being suggested on some of the ensembles!

Not here, only ever been chasing a battleground this week, nothing was ever showing a potent easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Unless you live on a mountain in Scotland nobody on here is going to be seeing 6" of snow next weekend. 

Putting aside the latest ECM, a majority of the models show snowfall largely limited to the Pennines Northwards, EPS ensembles support this to a large degree too as do the high-res models that are just coming into range of next weekend. 

You might see some flurries Fri Daniel ..

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

As each new day enters the 96 hour range we see the same adjustments; more amplified/sharper trough, so jet curving back off Scandi High rather than firing into it, meaning troughs can only manage to disrupt against it, not shove it east.

In turn this increases wave 2 potential down the line as outlined previously. Models could be majorly underestimating the strength of that in the 8-16 day range.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Its a classic case really...

The models throwing up demonic mass lp-sytems...while struggling the outward decipher..

A typical responce in the face of eastward blocking...

And more than ample to note post 96hrs its an open book

ECM1-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, although we did have some sort of cold spells in 07 and 04, and you could argue 06 we did have a cold spell much later but probably unrelated.

I forgot the image, here are the temperature anomalies after displacements. I linked to the source in the stratosphere thread 

 

figure-iv_12012018.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

I forgot the image, here are the temperature anomalies after displacements. I linked to the source in the stratosphere thread 

 

figure-iv_12012018.png

Thanks - although because they are averaged out over 2 months, they don't always tell the full story, i remember only just about making it home from work once in March 2007 because of a snow event, yet those 2 months came out average, 2004 my sister could'nt get home for 6 hours from work because of a late Jan snow event following a week of snow showers.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

I’m no strat expert but I would think that surely the exact location of a displacement will determine the impacts on North West Europe rather than it just being pot luck as to whether it brings us cold or not.

Besides, those who are experts on these things are seeing signs of further warming late December/early January that would lead to a split vortex rather than just a displacement. The displacement making that split more likely as the PV will already be greatly weakened.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
20 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

You could also say that displacements are likely to bring milder than average temperatures to our parts (6/7 times for displacements since the nineties) 

So we could have all these good looking strat charts and still end up with mild southwesterly Atlantic driven weather. That would be just our luck in the U.K.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

ECM has some light snow for Wales, parts of West Midlands, NW England and South west England late Friday night/early Saturday.

This is ahead of the main band of precip later on Saturday. DP’s still below Zero for all and Snow level right down to Sea Level. 

Anything for east coast Ireland showing?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Post day 10 ecm 12z and feels like we haven't moved on at all since the last day or so...low pressure close to the UK and another on the same latitude west.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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