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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've seen better 12Zs than that, I'm sure!

Yes I'd agree.i think the bar was and has been set high over the last 2-3 weeks ete or all the eye candy and blocking.there doesn't seem to be a cohesive  set up really going past this weak attempt at an easterly.pv looks disjointed but really scatty.whether the strat is readjusting I don't know tbh but things aren't there normal self imo

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

I think that's the word so far that has reflected late Autumn and early winter on the models - 'potential'

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Saturdays Snow depicted by the GEM

if we want more widespread snow we will need more SE feed

A1ACFAAD-DA44-466D-96EE-3CEA5D0FE46B.thumb.png.6140a67a4767fde47c41f8be08ba4918.png9FDFDAC1-DBFE-4D43-B424-8FB695F9BD5B.thumb.png.4e2994035b5dedf6824fced68b9a1d7c.png

SE winds not good for us in the Greater Manchester area. 

South East wind = Rain shadow 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Snow for the north sat night on the para 

yes GFS P still the best in terms of most widespread snow

could be quite a close call between rain / snow but it might just be helpful if this ends up being a night time event with the cooler temps / dew points

gfs-16-126.thumb.png.a91ce5be864b1e0cf4c75f13d7946e02.pnggfs-16-132.thumb.png.10af9b6f1d3e53c480226367656f8a59.pnggfs-16-138.thumb.png.1cd204068091b3bd7aac698c58569b91.pnggfs-9-126.thumb.png.e9a4be165e0ae42c1d615c1fded953d6.pnggfs-9-132.thumb.png.898e139883bfb1c7f4c15f90df705418.pnggfs-9-138.thumb.png.1db7f538f570c5948b8f8c606772c65a.pnggfs-3-126.thumb.png.c03fce9cf96f10124bd78379bbc4d365.pnggfs-3-132.thumb.png.2a505e1acdba61844b5ccaafd6a26697.pnggfs-3-138.thumb.png.62947c15ea725a0afee7d3f10bbda0d0.png  

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

If only it weren't deep FI of the General Fail System... Festive period looking, well, festive for my location. Would be nice to break a run of milder Christmases. 

tempresult_pmq7.gif

tempresult_rtj3.gif

tempresult_ecb1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight

Any snow on Saturday night will be unfortunately transient and wet. Better than nothing I guess.

The NH is looking great for the new year though...patience is needed, it will come though I'm sure

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, just another 3 weeks or so to wait..hopefully it will still be looking great when we get to January!

in the meantime, turning colder from the East later this week!!:cold:

Yeah frosty the big chill arriving at the end of the year,going to be a big one get your sledges skates ready ⛷️

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

gfsnh-10-312.png?12

Chestnuts roasting on an open fire...

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

WOW what a difference! 
Much smaller warm sector!

Yesterdays 12z

ECM0-144.GIF

Todays

ECM0-120.GIF?10-0

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Seems like there's a pretty decent chance of seeing some snow in Scotland. Especially as the cold flow looks like it will continue well into Saturday up here, whilst milder air sets into England. I'd say about 50%. If the eastern flow is cold enough, we could even see some wintry showers feeding in off the north sea on Thursday-Friday

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

WOW what a difference! 
Much smaller warm sector!

Yesterdays 12z

ECM0-144.GIF

Todays

ECM0-120.GIF?10-0

As b4...likely see that wedge slowly evaporate...as we gain..

The block and format..being underestimated!!..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

different, but trend good, trending west/disrupting with every run, scottish members laughing, snowed in Sunday, still bad for my location on this run though

ECM1-144.GIF?10-0

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

This is why nothing can be trusted beyond 4 days at the moment. Chalk and cheese. 

12z Yesterday

ECM1-168.GIF

12z Today

ECM1-144.GIF?10-0

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

A-kin 2 this...as everything de-materialises..

And another shot at the draw...gains..

ECM0-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Some thoughts on viewing the strat charts today, and many have been posted.  Given the reliability of the charts at much longer range for these compared to the weather down here, it seems sensible to use the FV3 take simply because of the high resolution out to day 16.  So the 12z run, peak heat is T336

image.thumb.jpg.5d9b32e29b8ac39f61102e75f4a4260a.jpg

Leading to this at the end of the run, T384:

image.thumb.jpg.63b87f0283b17b259691d5df827fdb1a.jpg

Clearly a displacement of the vortex. But as @chionomaniac has been explaining in the strat thread, we may need something more than this to finish it off.  This is what I will now be looking for on the strat charts.  Also, when the main warming is down to T240, will be useful to get ECMs take on it via the Berlin site.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

This is why nothing can be trusted beyond 4 days at the moment. Chalk and cheese. 

12z Yesterday

ECM1-168.GIF

12z Today

ECM1-144.GIF?10-0

Models just can't get to grips with the uncertainty!

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