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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Looks like icon trying to throw up a ridge and cut off the atlantic????

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Either on Meteociel.fr or on their app 

Meteocial..

Scroll @left hanside..

Your find it there...along with other various models.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like a displacement at the moment?

Think chino has just posted in the strat thread- split is better.

Hi, as I have said before I am not overly knowledgeable when it comes to the stratosphere but it certainly looks good / interesting at the moment and given GP's thoughts for a warming on the 26th December things look like they are coming along nicely.

I was comparing current outlooks to this time in 2015 and I know which year I would prefer  

predicted 2018 chart gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.c8f0ee4668ae799d96ef06d34691022a.png

same time frame in 2015 1160382088_gfsnh-10-384(1).thumb.png.db42ab2243688094bc9787bdac9ace82.png

other years for comparison with what was being forecast on this day

2017 637726284_gfsnh-10-384(2).thumb.png.29a35088208f53fdc0300bae3a182948.png 

2016 1450959812_gfsnh-10-384(3).thumb.png.6d88978388ee2c3603562fd2bae26daf.png

there was an error on meteociel trying to get 2014, 2013,2011,2010,2009,2008,2007 

2012 95849742_gfsnh-2012121006-10-384(1).thumb.png.3a8e77ca3673dd7d7f51137e0d3fba61.png

of course what happened back in February this year gave us amazing results with the beast from the east,  we can end up with something that has even half the severity of that event 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

I wonder what past winters were like when there has been a strong Aleutian low-weak Icelandic low combi?

 

Why don’t you tell us @Weather-history

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Icon slower with the atlantic advance 108 v 114 - 

Also noticably colder @850 in the early stages down to -8c....

S

Waiting for your first boom post of the evening from either ukmo or gfs lol

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

I wonder what past winters were like when there has been a strong Aleutian low-weak Icelandic low combi?

 

If anyone can find out Kev....it must be you?

 

BFTP

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Icon slower with the atlantic advance 108 v 114 - 

Also noticably colder @850 in the early stages down to -8c....

S

Steve

Ive also noticed the beeb prog max temps for Reading Thurs and Fri as 4c....thats chilly....and more chilly than they thought a couple of days back

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Meteocial..

Scroll @left hanside..

Your find it there...along with other various models.

Yep, that’s where I found it....thanks to you and others for taking time to ‘lead’ this aging man

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yep, that’s where I found it....thanks to you and others for taking time to ‘lead’ this aging man

 

BFTP

If you're as ancient as I am, you might find this handy?

Image result for icon model

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Well if nothing else the icon 6z does keep most of the rain away which will do me for sure!!! very odd looking nhp tho ??

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

Hmmm will it be red or blue? EDIT: 850s are nothing to write home about.

iconeu_uk1-42-120-0.png

Edited by AppleUK 123
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Dont we need the Atlantic to come in to play a bit if the block is to strong the fronts wont make its way into the UK. Or would it still undercut and keep the cold air in place. As much as i love a frost and seasonal feel. Sure most would prefer the  higher risk scenario for battleground snow although transient. High risk but potentially high reward.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
24 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Why don’t you tell us @Weather-history

 

23 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

If anyone can find out Kev....it must be you?

 

BFTP

 

Did a quick research on google

Image result for winters with strong aleutian lows

1957-58 is interesting

NOAA_2_1958012112_1.png

NOAA_2_1958021706_1.png

CETs

December 1957: 4.5

January 1958: 3.4

February: 4.7

March: 3.7

 

 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although i was wrong about the type of SSW in 1985, it was a split, not a displacement.

archivesnh-1984-12-29-12-4.png?

What is the difference on uk weather impacts between a split and a displacement?

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

So it seems the ICON is further west again which brings me to this with the the high uncertainty 

Is it possible that the Atlantic does not break through ?

Would think it is highly improbable, all indications are that the Atlantic will break through, just a question of when not if.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
46 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the model run predicts the temps to reach the heady heights of zero c @ T300.  that's not T384. i've seen quite a few comments about the warmings never making it below the end of the runs - these posts are plainly bollux 

Thanks mate. That's good to hear, as we've been having T+384 strat charts posted for weeks now, and there seems little point in posting them as they never seem to get any closer. However, an intriguing month ahead....

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

So it seems the ICON is further west again which brings me to this with the the high uncertainty 

Is it possible that the Atlantic does not break through ?

No, it'll definitely break through. Just the timing and angle of attack to be finalised.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
26 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

If anyone can find out Kev....it must be you?

 

BFTP

Steve

Ive also noticed the beeb prog max temps for Reading Thurs and Fri as 4c....thats chilly....and more chilly than they thought a couple of days back

 

BFTP

This always happens with this sort of setup, everything get delayed from memory the cold ais should be with us today, and it's not exactly brass monkeys out there
gfs-1-126.png?6Forecast vs today.gfs-1-6.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Even stronger high on gfs 12z at just 48 hours

-5C isotherm hits the pier at Southwold at six a.m....

Netweather GFS Image

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